I know it’s only Wednesday, but I cannot wait until next Monday night. Yeah, you’ve got an awesome holiday on Thursday. You’ve got the crazy holiday shopping season kicking off on Friday. And most importantly, you’ve got Egg Nog hitting the shelves! But Monday you’ve got the game of the year in the NFL, and I am pumped. On ESPN’s Monday Night Football the Patriots will visit the Saints in New Orleans. The Saints come into the game undefeated and looking to assert themselves as a clear Superbowl favorite. The Patriots could conceivably be coming into this game with only one loss, but they lost a coin flip in Denver and handed the Colts the game in week 10 (No, we’re not going to talk about 4th and 2. I operate like the Pats, so we’re moving on). This is an intriguing match-up for a lot of reasons. Both of these teams have fantastic offenses; the Saints and the Pats rank one and two in passing. On the defensive side of the ball you have two highly underrated D’s. So what do you watch for?
Let’s start with the Patriots offense against the Saints D. The Patriots are coming off a highly emotional win over the Jets at Gillette Stadium. They wanted to prove to the rest of the league that there would be no lingering effects from the loss to Indy, and they did just that. The offense hummed, with Wes Welker catching 15 balls for a ridiculous 192 yards and the also effective Laurence Maroney, who rushed for 77 yards and two scores. The Pats were successful against the Jets because they spread the field and exploited the mis-matches in the secondary. This week Brady won’t have that luxury; the Saints have picked off opposing quarterbacks a league leading 20 times. And just to add insult to non-injury, Darren Sharper will most likely be back to full strength and playing quarterback for the Saints defense. That said, the key for the Patriots is going to be the running game. The Saints have allowed an average of 115 rushing yards per game and have let opposing running backs into the endzone 12 times this year. The Patriots also hope to get Sammy Morris back from injury this week, giving them a three-headed attack. Look for Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to get carries on 1st and 2nd downs and Morris to come in on 3rd and short situations and around the goal line. The Saints relentlessly pressure the quarterback, and that will be no different against a banged up Patriot offensive line, so look for Welker to be a prime target. The Patriots will run screens early and often to keep the Saints pass rushers honest.
On the other side you’ve got Drew Brees leading a crazy good offense. The key here is really simple. The Patriots secondary is super young and super small. Brees is going to look deep for Robert Meacham and Marques Colston to try and beat the Patriots rookies Darius Butler and Patrick Chung. Those two receivers are both 6’2” or taller. The Patriot secondary doesn’t have anyone over 6’1” and they average a little more than 5’11”. This could be a huge problem for the Patriots. Brees has been deadly accurate this year. He’s got a 68% completion percentage and has a passer rating of 124 on throws of 20 or more yards. He’ll use that accuracy to feed the ball to those tall receivers up high, where only they can catch the ball. For the Pats, getting healthy will be the key: Ty Warren is back from injury and played well against the Jets, Jerod Mayo has been getting consistently better with each passing week, and Tully Banta-Cain has been battling a rib injury but appears to be coming out of it. Most likely we’ll see the linebackers dropping into coverage to help protect against Brees’ high-powered arm. This again provides an opportunity for the running game to star in this match-up. Much was made in the off-season about Pierre Thomas emerging as the star running back in New Orleans, but he has been anything but spectacular so far. He has just under 600 yards on the ground and 5 rushing touchdowns. Belichick will most likely use four down linemen to combat the run game and perhaps gamble on a couple of passing downs by shooting the linebackers into the gaps.
Then there’s the Superdome. Truly there isn’t a better homefield advantage in the NFL than the Saints have in the Superdome. In the last two years, the Saints have gone 11-2 in their building. There will be no distractions on Monday night for “Who Dat” nation. The stadium will be filled, and the fans will be incredibly loud. Everyone in New Orleans wants respect, and they feel like they can get it with a win against the Patriots. The Saints haven’t played a big game since week 6, when they beat the then undefeated New York Giants. However, the Patriots seem to be at the center of the media frenzy every week. And they’re hoping to ride this emotional wave into New Orleans and derail the dream season these Saints have put together.
The implications of this game are huge. I personally believe that whichever team wins will represent its conference in the Superbowl. If the Patriots can win on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe they can win anywhere. And they might have to. If the Colts continue to dominate, we’ll surely see a Patriots/Colts playoff game in Indy. If the Saints can pull this one out, it proves that they can play with and beat anyone at anytime. In the end, it’s all going to come down to which team can make the big play on defense, and which of these two incredible QB’s can make the fewest mistakes. Regardless of the outcome, we’re about to see one of the great match-ups in the league this season. I know I’ll be glued to the TV. You should be too.