Trade Bait

We knew they'd hit, but could the Sox starters hold it down?

The sights, and sounds, and smells of summer are in full swing, but it feels like Christmas!  Christmas in July, that is.  The Major League Baseball non-waiver trading deadline is under two weeks away, and it’s no secret that July 31st is one of my favorite days of the year.  It takes a lot to win a World Series Championship, and most teams don’t have all the pieces right at the outset.  The trading deadline allows the major players in the league to go out and get those missing pieces that they hope will put them over the top.  The coverage is always completely ridiculous, and now with most of the “insiders” using Twitter, this season promises to be even more in your face.  It’s exciting to follow along to see where the pieces land, which is why it’s so hard for me to say that the Sox need to stand pat.  Momentum can swing in a huge way after this day has come and gone, but as we approach this yearly shift in baseball, a warning: don’t sell the farm.

 

The Red Sox are in first place in the A.L. East, and show no signs of slowing down over the last three months of the season.  There are a number of positions that are producing at numbers that don’t quite live up to expectations, but we’re alright.  With a one game lead and 68 games to play in the season, the Red Sox will pick up major pieces without having to trade for anyone.  If you run down the roster, there are two positions that you could highlight as trouble spots for the Sox as they head down the stretch—starting-pitching and right field.

 

As we entered the season, the offense was supposed to be monstrous, and it has been.  So why mess?  Yes, JD Drew has been lackluster at best in right, but with Josh Reddick knocking the cover off the ball, we’ve got a nice platoon out there in right. The two big guns on the trade market, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Ludwick, wouldn’t provide enough of an upgrade to warrant a farm system fire sale, and there will surely be a piece that will pass through waivers later in the summer that Boston could use to spell Drew and Reddick at the 9thposition.  The Sox have scored more runs, have more extra base hits, and have the highest batting average in the majors.  They are who we thought they were, so let’s leave them be.  It’s the starting rotation that had all the question marks back in March.

 

Is Josh Beckett due for a comeback?  Which Clay Buchholz will we see to start the season?  Do Dice-K and Wakefield have anything left in the tank?  And finally, was the worst free agent pitching contract in Red Sox history signed by John Lackey?  Now that we’ve gone through two-thirds of the season, we can answer a number of those questions.  Yes, Beckett was due for a comeback, and he has been tremendous.  Buchholz isn’t quite as good as his break-out 2010 campaign may have shown, but when healthy, he may be the best number three starter in the league.  Dice-K is done, and Wakefield is spitting straight in the face of father time.  And yes, John Lackey is just plain terrible.  All of that said—the Red Sox don’t need to go out and get a starting pitcher.

 

When Lester and Buchholz come back from the DL, and it is my personal opinion that we shouldn’t see either of them back in the bigs for at least a month, it will be like they went out and got a true number one and a true number three.  Let’s not forget here people, Boston is in first place in the toughest division in the league.  So Theo, if you’re reading, give those guys some time to get themselves right, trust the team you have, and don’t mortgage the farm to get a starting arm come the deadline.

Yooouuuuu-ouch

Kevin Youkilis is too important to the Boston Red Sox to be playing through pain in June.

Maybe I’m crazy.  Maybe I’m completely and totally out of my gourd.  Maybe I’m so wrong that it makes “The Decision” look like a good idea, but isn’t Kevin Youkilis important to the Boston Red Sox?  This seems like an almost redundant question, doesn’t it?  But if that’s truly the case, why is he being handled this way?

 

Youk has been playing through some pretty severe pain over the last ten days, as he contends with an ankle sprain of unknown severity.  For some unclear reason, Terry Francona and the Sox bigwigs have been trotting him out to play third base in meaningless early June games.  It was most evident in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers last week.  The Red Sox All-Star hit a chopper up the first base line and as he started toward the base, he clearly pulled up and grimaced in pain.  The following half inning, and every inning since, Youk has been out in the field playing a very difficult position that requires agility and a quickness on your feet that he clearly doesn’t have at the moment.

 

To his credit, and in form with his true competitive nature, he hasn’t let the ankle get the better of him. And perhaps that’s the reason that Francona has left him in games.  But it just doesn’t make sense to have your clean-up hitter playing through pain in June!  Let Youk sit for a couple games, and give one of the two Sox corner infield prospects a shot.  Better yet, let BOTH of them have a chance.

 

Drew Sutton has performed more than admirably in his time with the big club, hitting .314 while slugging .514 and committing only a single error in 17 games.  Then there’s Yamaico Navarro, who’s currently sitting on a .925 OPS in Pawtucket while playing the hot corner for the Sox.

 

Here’s my thought: Put Youk on the 15-day DL and call up Navarro.  Insert Navarro against lefties, and Sutton against righties.  The minor leaguer is hitting over .320 against southpaws this season, while Sutton is over .340 against righties.  Hello!  This thing on?  Why risk further injury to one of your most important players, when you have two completely capable backups who could clearly benefit from playing time on the big league level?

 

I understand the argument that Youk is an integral part of the Red Sox lineup, and that he’s finally catching his stride after an excruciatingly slow start, but let me leave you with a couple more numbers to make my case.  The 2010 Red Sox were 60-44 with Kevin Youkilis in the lineup, and 29-29 without him.  The 2011 version will need to play better than .500 ball if they hope to stay ahead of a very talented Yankee team and a very resilient Tampa team.  Can Theo and Tito really risk losing this guy?  I say no, hot hitter or not.

Perspective on Papi

I don't care how this thing ends. This will be how I remember David Ortiz.

Let me start by saying this: there is no bigger David Ortiz fan than this guy right here. But that aside, it’s time to let the idea of Big Papi go. The Red Sox slugger is hitting .185 with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI in 23 games. What I find interesting is that his power numbers really aren’t that bad. He’s on pace to hit 26 homers and drive in 76 runs. But he just doesn’t look that same. He’s struck out over 30% of the time, he’s hitting .207 with runners in scoring position, and his slugging percentage is down more than 130 points from his career average. This is a tough thing for Boston fans to stomach. Not only did he help carry our team to two World Series Championships, but he was a great character guy. The city loved him–Papi was an icon. Like a big, friendly, home run hitting teddy bear. Red Sox fans waited 86 years for those titles, and if we were without Ortiz, we’d still be waiting. He had more clutch hits than I could count. If the game was on the line, in the late innings, he was the guy you wanted at the plate. He’s got 12 walk-off homers, and 20 walk-off hits in his career. He won the Silver Slugger in 4 consecutive years, from 2004-2007. But no award means more to Papi, or Red Sox fans, than his 2004 ALCS MVP Award.

David Ortiz could not be stopped in October 2004. In the three game ALDS sweep of the Angels, he hit .545 and had a ridiculous 1.688 OPS (OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage, for those who don’t know). That was truly out of control, but it would pale in comparison to what he was about to do to the Yankees. In the 7 game series he hit .387, with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI. He also scored 6 runs (to lead the team), and had an OPS a click under 1.200. And now you’re saying. “Hey! Those numbers are worse than his ALDS numbers!” Yah, they are. But they don’t take into account the truly remarkable events of games 4 and 5 against New York. Well past midnight, the morning of October 18th, less that 20 hours before game 5 was set to begin, Papi strolled into the batters box. On a 2-1 count, he deposited a Paul Quantrill fastball into the visitor’s bullpen, giving Boston a 6-4 12 inning win.  The Sox were alive in the series, and David Ortiz wasn’t done. The next night, the Red Sox and Yankees played the longest game in ALCS history. It went 14 innings, and lasted nearly 6 hours. At the end though it was all Papi, all over again. With two out, and two on, Papi looped an Esteban Loaiza offering into centerfield, bringing home Johnny Damon with the winning run. He fouled off 6 pitches before ending the game. If you watch the video of those two games, a hush comes over the crowd when he steps to the plate. I can’t remember another player in my time that had that effect on the crowd.  The man will be immortal in Boston.  And I think we need a bronze Papi outside Fenway to greet the crowds before they enter the park.  That is what makes this so hard.

What’s getting lost, is the business. The Red Sox are a multi-million dollar franchise, and they don’t succeed in business without winning. Right now, with Papi in the lineup, the winning thing is what’s alluding us, and something has to change.  But what can be done?  I see two options.

1. You send him down -call me crazy, but this seems like the most logical thing to do.  Let’s call it back spasms.  You put him on the 15 day DL, give him a chance to get his head in order, and then you start him on a rehab assignment.  Perhaps Big Paps is just not capable of performing at a high level for a full season any more.  Last year, it took him until June to start clicking a the plate.  Maybe he just needs the extra time, and a stint with Pawtucket or Portland would allow him to have that time.  Plus, it would boost ticket sales for the Sox minor league teams. Win-win.

2. You trade him -this one would hurt a little bit, because he would almost undoubtedly end up with an American League team.  He has no defensive value, and there are a couple of teams in the A.L. that could certainly use his services.  Kansas City, LA, Toronto, and Cleveland could all use help at the hitter only position.  Here’s what I’m thinking: we swing him to Cleveland or LA for a couple of lesser known prospects that we can then package with Mike Lowell and a pitcher like Michael Bowden for Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego.  Of course, this is all contingent on San Diego falling out of the N.L. West race.  Which, I’m saying right now, you can bank on.  L.A. is starting to come on, and San Fran can out-pitch just about anyone in the National League.

There is one other thing that the Red Sox could do. Release him.  BUT, this must be the absolute last resort.  If everything else fails, you just gotta let him go.  It will be a dark, dark day for Boston sports, but you have to win.  This is not a market where you can sit back on your laurels, and wait for things to turn around. Enter Theo Epstein.  If there is any one person that is capable of making the hard decision, it’s Theo.  A large part of this column was about the 2004 Red Sox World Series run.  And I’m assuming if you’re a Sox fan, you know that they only way we got there was with the defensive help of Orlando Cabrera.  Cabrera, of course, arrived earlier in the season when Theo traded fan favorite, and Red Sox great, Nomar Garciaparra.  That wasn’t an easy decision either.  It will be interesting to see how Theo reacts to the current Ortiz situation;  Ortiz was one of his first acquisitions as general manager.  We must never forget what Papi helped bring back to Boston, but my hope is that Theo doesn’t play the nostalgia game.  If he does, it could mean the end of the 2010 Red Sox.

The Mission Statement

If the Red Sox won the World Series but no one was there to see it, did it happen?  Picture this.  Keith Foulke is on the mound for the Red Sox, it’s game 4 of the 2004 World Series in St. Louis.  Edgar Renteria steps into the box with a 1-0 count. He takes the next pitch and hits a knubber back to the mound.  Foulke snares it; he is so stunned and excited that he hesitates to throw on to first.  He takes a couple steps towards the bag and flips underhanded to Doug Mientkiewicz.  That’s it.  The Red Sox have just won their first World Series title in 86 years.  BUT! The stands are empty, there are no camera crews, no flash bulbs, no Joe Buck trying to capture the emotions of hundreds of thousands of Boston fans.  It’s just a bunch of guys pouring champagne all over each other in the middle of a baseball field.  Doesn’t sound right, does it? So what conclusion do we draw from this? We face facts: it’s a fans game.  And I’m not just talking about baseball.  The American sports industry would be absolutely nowhere without its fan base.

That one moment on October 27th, 2004 changed the lives of millions of people and sent a riptide through the sports world.  With an unlikely cast of characters, a sometimes wobbly manager, and a 3-0 hole to the Yankees in the ALCS, no one expected them to win.  But they did, and it was the fans who carried them through those last 8 games.  When Dave Roberts stole that base in game 4, we knew something special was about to happen.  On ANY other Red Sox team, in ANY other year, he gets thrown out and the season is over.  But he didn’t and the Sox pulled off one of the most incredible comebacks in the history of sports. And WE did it.  Am I biased?  You bet your ass I am.  The Red Sox are my team.  They have been since I came out of the womb.  I’ve followed them every season since I could comprehend the game.  We, as fans, want to believe that we are a part of this, that we can somehow affect the outcome and push our team to the next level.  We employ truly crazy superstitions, wear rally caps and scream until our lungs bleed, all in the hope that we get to see them in the playoffs. We pour our hearts and souls into these teams.   So why are we getting such a raw deal?  Professional sports are an industry.  I get it.  There is money to be made, and if you have the opportunity to make a buck, why wouldn’t you do it?  Ticket prices are climbing, the media frenzy is increasing, every Tom, Dick or Harry is writing a blog (ironic, isn’t it?) or doing a Podcast.  We are all trying to cash in.  All it’s costing us is our sports identity.

That’s where I come in.  I took a sports broadcasting class this summer led by the immortal Ed Ingles.  He brought in a cast of characters to impart some wisdom on breaking into the sports business.  And they all basically had the same advice: Don’t quit, practice practice practice, and lastly, write.  It was that last one that knocked me for a loop.  I never considered writing; I didn’t think I had the chops, but sports broadcasting is what I want to do.  It’s something I feel like I can be good at.  So what do you write about?  Who will read it?  I thought about this for a long time and I came to this.  Fans will read it.  And so, I will write about the fans.  How do we get that identity back?  Who will fight for it? I don’t have the answers, but I’m hoping to explore these questions, and with your help maybe we can figure something out, come to some sort of arrangement, either with the sport (whichever it may be) or with ourselves.

So what are we going to do here?  I’m glad you asked.  Of course we’re going to talk sports, because a real fan isn’t a fan without knowledge.  But this can be so much more than that.  Along with all those sports posts, on the first Friday of every month you’ll see a story about the fan experience.  We have lots to discuss; whether it be gambling, fantasy sports, announcers, TV blackouts, the disappearance of the NHL, the lack of soccer in America or just plain old ticket prices — we’re going to cover it all.  And I want your feedback.  Each monthly post will be sent along with all your comments, to someone who can make a difference.  For example, the post set for December is about the disappearance of the NHL.  After the lockout ended in 2005 it seemed like the league vanished from TV and sports news shows, but no one seemed to get angry and it continued to get worse.  Now they cover, maybe 10 games nationally all year.  In the 2008-2009 postseason you couldn’t even see the first three rounds on National TV! So, we send the letter along with all your comments to NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman in hopes that he’ll notice the millions of hockey fans aching for more coverage. Will it work? Who knows?  But it’s worth standing up for.  Sports mean so much to us, so why shouldn’t we fight back? The 2004 Boston Red Sox were underdogs just like the fans of today.  Everyone is counting us out, but maybe, just maybe, we can pull off an even bigger comeback.