Tag Archives: Patriots

The Road to Indy: Five Keys to the AFC Championship

  By Chris Speziale | 01/16/2012 - 6:30 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

Tom Brady and the Pats are 6-1 against Joe Flacco and the Ravens

We’ve got a whole week to breakdown the matchup between the Patriots and the Ravens, but while the rest of the ESPN family of networks break down what happened in the divisional round, why don’t we jump ahead a bit, shall we? Here are five keys to a Patriot victory on Sunday, when they host Baltimore.

Protect the Ball – I know what you’re thinking.  “Really? He’s gonna start with protecting the ball? Freakin duh!”  I get it, but I don’t think you really grasp how important this will be this weekend.  The Ravens are first in the NFL in forced fumbles this season, and while New England has done a particularly good job of not putting it on the turf, that Ray Lewis led D will be in full ball hawk mode.  The Pats are first in the AFC in turnover differential, and they’ll need to win the turnover battle this weekend if they hope to knock the Ravens out of this thing.  That starts with holding on to the football.

Protect the QB – Noticing a theme here? Clearly what I’m trying to tell you is that the Ravens defense is pretty darn good.  Not only are they 1st in the NFL in forced fumbles, but they’re also first in the AFC in sacks, they hold the QB to the lowest rating in the league, and have allowed only 11 passing touchdowns this season, which, as you may have guessed is also best in the league.  Those rankings are scary if you’re a Patriot fan, but fear not! The Pats offensive line is getting healthy at just the right time, and consists of three pro-bowlers, as well as a rookie who’s played well beyond expectations this season.  They held the Broncos sackless in the massacre on Saturday night, and they’ve only allowed 11 sacks over their last five games.

Contain Ray Rice – You can’t stop him, you can only HOPE to contain him. Ray Rice leads the league in yards from scrimmage, and is fourth in total touchdowns with 15 rushing and receiving scores this season.  I don’t think there’s even a slim chance that the Pats neutralize this guy, but they must hope that the can at least keep him from having a monster game.  In the four Baltimore losses, Rice was able to get up over 100 total yards only once in a 34-14 loss to San Diego in week 14.  Additionally, the fourth year back carried the ball 13 times or less in five contests this year.  Four of those five were in losing efforts, and the fifth was in a 37-7 blowout where he saw his playing time cut down.  New England must get a lead early to force the Ravens into passing situations and keep Rice from getting his carries.

Return that Kick – Neither team will score on every possession in this game, so the kicking game will be important for both sides.  The Ravens special teams unit allows 12 yards per return on punts, and New England will need every one of those yards.  If the Pats offense gets held down, and they will occasionally, they’ll need to at least push the ball up close to midfield in order to get the Ravens pinned close to their own goal line.  The Ravens have really struggled to sustain long touchdown drives this season, managing a measly eight of more than 80 yards, only one of which came after week 9.  Field goals simply will not be enough to take down Brady and the Pats, so if New England pins them deep they’ll have a good shot.  Proof is in the pudding.

Feed the Beast – New England is 14-3 on the season, and they largely got that record using their large body.  Rob Gronkowski has been a match-up nightmare for every team in the league so far, and there’s no reason to think that that will be any different this weekend.  With no running game or deep threat, many in the sports media world discounted New Endgland’s convention defying offense.  But they persist, and it is this sportscasters opinion that they should hold true.  Why mess with a good thing? Gronk has 17 touchdowns and is averaging a ridiculous 14.7 yards per catch.  Get him the ball as often as you can, and you’ve got a great chance of winning.

Ultimately, I think the Patriots will be able to score 30, and even with a weak Patriot defense, I can’t imagine that Joe Flacco will be able to muster up enough offense to take down New England.  It’s going to be an ugly, physical, bloody battle, but it’s gonna be so much fun to watch.  Ray Lewis vs. Tom Brady for a chance to go to the Super Bowl? Sign me up.  Final: 31-23 New England

Defending Offense

  By Chris Speziale | 01/04/2012 - 2:11 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

These three guys lead the leagues best offenses. Will the O be enough to get them to Indy for Superbowl XLVI?

I’ve been hearing a lot about the Patriots lack of defensive prowess, and the hindrance that that might become down the line in the NFL playoffs, which start this weekend.  The Pats are ranked 31st in total defense, and have allowed a whopping 293 yards per game through the air to opposing offenses.  But what’s getting lost in all of this is that they’ve got the most potent offensive attack in the AFC, and they lead the conference in both point differential and turnover margin.

When the Saints made that improbable run to win the Superbowl in ’09, guess where they ranked in those two categories: first in differential and third turnover margin.  They had a top three offense, a middle of the road defense, and the number one seed in a highly competitive NFC Playoff that featured four future Hall of Fame QB’s; Favre, Rodgers, Warner and Brees.  The major difference between the ’09 Saints and the ’11 Pats? New England has, arguably, an easier road to the Superbowl!

New England won eight in a row down the stretch to ensure that as long as they were playing, they’d be playing at home, where they’ve lost only three times since 2008.  And while I’m not one to make guarantees, I’m going out on a limb and calling it now: New England will take on either the Steelers or Ravens to get to the Superbowl this year, and neither of those teams scare me. Pittsburgh is banged up at some key positions and may have already gone through two tough road games before getting to Gillette. Baltimore has struggled with offensive identity this season, and while their defense is still one of the best in the game, the team is 1-6 against New England all time.  Granted, that one win came on the road in the playoffs two years ago.

But let’s step away from the AFC for a second.  As the NFL season progressed and the Packers rattled off win after win after win in the NFC, they were pretty much crowned as the most likely repeat champs since the 2004 Pats.  But here’s the wild thing…they’re D is worse than New England’s.  So while all of the acclaim and hype was following the cheeseheads around during the regular season, opposing offenses continued to slowly figure out how to score on these guys which finally led to an abysmal week 17 performance against the Lions where they allowed 575 yards of total offense and 41 points. They rank dead last in yards allowed and passing yards allowed, while hanging around the middle third of the league in rush yards and points against. Their pass rush is suspect, they have some holes in the secondary, and the health of a couple of key defensive starters is in question heading into postseason play.

So if it’s so much of a slam dunk that the Pack will be representing the NFC with all those holes, why aren’t the Pats getting the same kind of love? The two teams almost seem like mirror images in different conferences.  And if it happens the way I think it will, the Pack and the Pats will meet in a rematch of Superbowl XXXI, and we’ll have one of the highest scoring title games in the history of the big game.  The record currently stands at 75 combined points, and we may beat that by the third quarter.

The modern cliché is that defense wins championships, and as it stands, never in the history of the league have the two worst regular season defenses played each other in the Superbowl.  But this is the year of the offense, and with McCarthy and Rodgers in the NFC, and Belichick and Brady in the AFC, how can you not root for it?

Obituary: 2010 New England Patriots

  By Chris Speziale | 10/08/2010 - 8:04 pm | Musings, Predictions
Leave a comment

It'll be halloween when Randy comes back to Gillette. But that purple outfit won't be a costume, it'll be a nightmarish reminder of what they let go.

Well, it’s been a while since I’ve thrown something up on the site. But I can be silent no longer. My beloved New England Patriots made, I think, one of the most heinous mistakes in a decade. Think back, if you will, to 2004 when we were talking about the Pats as a dynasty. They had won 3 of the last 5 Superbowls, and they started the season as the favorite to make it 4 in 6. Well, of course, that didn’t happen. New England won the division, wrecked the Jags in the Wild Card round before getting walloped themselves by the Broncos in Denver. This is when it started. The naysayers descended on the New England clubhouse. Deion Branch held out and was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for a first rounder. And everyone wondered who would catch passes from Tom Brady. The answer wasn’t the one that New England fans expected; the Pats brass held firm and kept the receiving corp the way it was. The 2006 leading receiver for the Patriots was Reche Caldwell. RECHE CALDWELL! He finished with just under 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. And despite all of that, the Patriots made it all the way to Indy, where they lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in the AFC title game.

 

Something had to change. And who better to make that change than Randy Moss. Fresh off the plane from Oakland, he was talking a big game. He yammered on and on about how this was a great fit for him because he wanted to win a championship. He had the right attitude, he looked motivated and in shape, and it appeared that the Pats had just completely changed their offense. Tom Brady was (and still is) the king of the screen. Now he had a deep target, and boy did he use it. All Moss did in his first season with the Patriots was catch 98 passes for over 1400 yards and 23 touchdowns. Are you kidding me? And yes, everyone and their mom knows what happened at the end of the 18-1 season. The helmet catch, the sieve that was the Patriots offensive line, and the NRA spokesman, Plaxico Burress, who stole the perfect season from New England. You may have thought, like I did, that that was it for Randy. That things would have gone sour in the Patriots locker room. That he’d whine and complain. After all, this is the guy whose own ego and complacent attitude got him run out of his two previous homes. But no, to everyone’s surprise, he came back the next season ready to roll. And had Brady not gone down with that knee injury, we could be talking right now about the Perfect Patriots of 2008. But he did, and even still, with Cassel at quarterback and Wes Welker emerging as the best possession receiver in the NFL, he had over a thousand yards and more touchdowns than anyone on the team.

 

Randy Moss is a hall of famer and will go down as the greatest deep threat receiver in the history of the NFL. No one will challenge his single season touchdown receptions record for years and years. And now he’s gone. Not only is it sad from a nostalgic Pats fan perspective, it straight up just killed the season for the Patriots, and I’ll tell you why. New England could basically do whatever they wanted on offense when Randy was between the lines. They could run him out deep to open the middle for Welker or Edelman, they could send him on crossing routes, they could put him in motion to confuse the secondary, the possibilities were endless. The passing game was lethal, and Brady was a masterful wizard running it. After a quarter of passing the ball, the Pats could run play-action for the rest of game. Opposing defenses never knew what hit ‘em. Not only could he catch just about anything that was thrown his way, Randy made people better. An example: the 2007 Patriots ran the ball for over 1800 yards, with Maroney (overrated), Morris (never could get it together to have a break-out year), and Faulk (much better catching the ball out of the backfield). You could never load up the box to stop the run on these guys, because Moss would absolutely murder you down the field. Cut back to the 2010 team with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the same unexplosive Morris, and some undrafted kid out of Division II Chadron State. You can essentially count the run game out. Which leads us to the now Moss-less receiving corp.

 

Welker will now be the focal point of this Patriots offense, and every team will know it. Will he still have over a hundred catches this season? You bet he will. Problem is—with Moss gone, the opposing secondary can bring safety help over the top to cut down on his yards after the catch. This’ll limit the amount of first downs New England is able to get without relying on that weak running attack to convert on short yardage scenarios. I’ve read a lot over the last couple of days about the Patriots trading draft picks for a different team-first wide receiver, and every article just makes me lol (that’s right Mr. Anderson-Hewitt, I put it in a column). The day that Bill Belichick trades away draft picks in the middle of a season is the day I streak naked through Times Square. It’s just not going to happen. And that leaves us with Welker, Edelman, and Brandon Tate. Has Tate shown that he has the talent and speed to be an impact player in the NFL? Hells yes, but that doesn’t mean that you can count on him to be your deep guy down the field. And until he proves himself capable of filling Moss’ shoes, the Patriots are in a whole heap of trouble.

Screw Egg Nog! Just give me the Pats vs. the Saints

  By Chris Speziale | 11/25/2009 - 12:04 am | Musings
1 Comment

I know it’s only Wednesday, but I cannot wait until next Monday night.  Yeah, you’ve got an awesome holiday on Thursday.  You’ve got the crazy holiday shopping season kicking off on Friday. And most importantly, you’ve got Egg Nog hitting the shelves!  But Monday you’ve got the game of the year in the NFL, and I am pumped.  On ESPN’s Monday Night Football the Patriots will visit the Saints in New Orleans.  The Saints come into the game undefeated and looking to assert themselves as a clear Superbowl favorite.  The Patriots could conceivably be coming into this game with only one loss, but they lost a coin flip in Denver and handed the Colts the game in week 10 (No, we’re not going to talk about 4th and 2.  I operate like the Pats, so we’re moving on).   This is an intriguing match-up for a lot of reasons.  Both of these teams have fantastic offenses; the Saints and the Pats rank one and two in passing.  On the defensive side of the ball you have two highly underrated D’s.  So what do you watch for?

Let’s start with the Patriots offense against the Saints D.  The Patriots are coming off a highly emotional win over the Jets at Gillette Stadium.  They wanted to prove to the rest of the league that there would be no lingering effects from the loss to Indy, and they did just that.  The offense hummed, with Wes Welker catching 15 balls for a ridiculous 192 yards and the also effective Laurence Maroney, who rushed for 77 yards and two scores.  The Pats were successful against the Jets because they spread the field and exploited the mis-matches in the secondary.  This week Brady won’t have that luxury; the Saints have picked off opposing quarterbacks a league leading 20 times.  And just to add insult to non-injury, Darren Sharper will most likely be back to full strength and playing quarterback for the Saints defense. That said, the key for the Patriots is going to be the running game.  The Saints have allowed an average of 115 rushing yards per game and have let opposing running backs into the endzone 12 times this year. The Patriots also hope to get Sammy Morris back from injury this week, giving them a three-headed attack.  Look for Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to get carries on 1st and 2nd downs and Morris to come in on 3rd and short situations and around the goal line.  The Saints relentlessly pressure the quarterback, and that will be no different against a banged up Patriot offensive line, so look for Welker to be a prime target.  The Patriots will run screens early and often to keep the Saints pass rushers honest.

On the other side you’ve got Drew Brees leading a crazy good offense.  The key here is really simple.  The Patriots secondary is super young and super small.  Brees is going to look deep for Robert Meacham and Marques Colston to try and beat the Patriots rookies Darius Butler and Patrick Chung.  Those two receivers are both 6’2” or taller.  The Patriot secondary doesn’t have anyone over 6’1” and they average a little more than 5’11”.  This could be a huge problem for the Patriots.  Brees has been deadly accurate this year.  He’s got a 68% completion percentage and has a passer rating of 124 on throws of 20 or more yards.  He’ll use that accuracy to feed the ball to those tall receivers up high, where only they can catch the ball. For the Pats, getting healthy will be the key: Ty Warren is back from injury and played well against the Jets, Jerod Mayo has been getting consistently better with each passing week, and Tully Banta-Cain has been battling a rib injury but appears to be coming out of it.  Most likely we’ll see the linebackers dropping into coverage to help protect against Brees’ high-powered arm.  This again provides an opportunity for the running game to star in this match-up.  Much was made in the off-season about Pierre Thomas emerging as the star running back in New Orleans, but he has been anything but spectacular so far.  He has just under 600 yards on the ground and 5 rushing touchdowns.  Belichick will most likely use four down linemen to combat the run game and perhaps gamble on a couple of passing downs by shooting the linebackers into the gaps.

Then there’s the Superdome.  Truly there isn’t a better homefield advantage in the NFL than the Saints have in the Superdome.  In the last two years, the Saints have gone 11-2 in their building.  There will be no distractions on Monday night for “Who Dat” nation.  The stadium will be filled, and the fans will be incredibly loud.  Everyone in New Orleans wants respect, and they feel like they can get it with a win against the Patriots.  The Saints haven’t played a big game since week 6, when they beat the then undefeated New York Giants.  However, the Patriots seem to be at the center of the media frenzy every week. And they’re hoping to ride this emotional wave into New Orleans and derail the dream season these Saints have put together.

The implications of this game are huge.  I personally believe that whichever team wins will represent its conference in the Superbowl.  If the Patriots can win on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe they can win anywhere.  And they might have to.  If the Colts continue to dominate, we’ll surely see a Patriots/Colts playoff game in Indy.  If the Saints can pull this one out, it proves that they can play with and beat anyone at anytime.  In the end, it’s all going to come down to which team can make the big play on defense, and which of these two incredible QB’s can make the fewest mistakes. Regardless of the outcome, we’re about to see one of the great match-ups in the league this season.  I know I’ll be glued to the TV.  You should be too.