Tag Archives: New Orleans

Defending Offense

  By Chris Speziale | 01/04/2012 - 2:11 pm | Musings
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These three guys lead the leagues best offenses. Will the O be enough to get them to Indy for Superbowl XLVI?

I’ve been hearing a lot about the Patriots lack of defensive prowess, and the hindrance that that might become down the line in the NFL playoffs, which start this weekend.  The Pats are ranked 31st in total defense, and have allowed a whopping 293 yards per game through the air to opposing offenses.  But what’s getting lost in all of this is that they’ve got the most potent offensive attack in the AFC, and they lead the conference in both point differential and turnover margin.

When the Saints made that improbable run to win the Superbowl in ’09, guess where they ranked in those two categories: first in differential and third turnover margin.  They had a top three offense, a middle of the road defense, and the number one seed in a highly competitive NFC Playoff that featured four future Hall of Fame QB’s; Favre, Rodgers, Warner and Brees.  The major difference between the ’09 Saints and the ’11 Pats? New England has, arguably, an easier road to the Superbowl!

New England won eight in a row down the stretch to ensure that as long as they were playing, they’d be playing at home, where they’ve lost only three times since 2008.  And while I’m not one to make guarantees, I’m going out on a limb and calling it now: New England will take on either the Steelers or Ravens to get to the Superbowl this year, and neither of those teams scare me. Pittsburgh is banged up at some key positions and may have already gone through two tough road games before getting to Gillette. Baltimore has struggled with offensive identity this season, and while their defense is still one of the best in the game, the team is 1-6 against New England all time.  Granted, that one win came on the road in the playoffs two years ago.

But let’s step away from the AFC for a second.  As the NFL season progressed and the Packers rattled off win after win after win in the NFC, they were pretty much crowned as the most likely repeat champs since the 2004 Pats.  But here’s the wild thing…they’re D is worse than New England’s.  So while all of the acclaim and hype was following the cheeseheads around during the regular season, opposing offenses continued to slowly figure out how to score on these guys which finally led to an abysmal week 17 performance against the Lions where they allowed 575 yards of total offense and 41 points. They rank dead last in yards allowed and passing yards allowed, while hanging around the middle third of the league in rush yards and points against. Their pass rush is suspect, they have some holes in the secondary, and the health of a couple of key defensive starters is in question heading into postseason play.

So if it’s so much of a slam dunk that the Pack will be representing the NFC with all those holes, why aren’t the Pats getting the same kind of love? The two teams almost seem like mirror images in different conferences.  And if it happens the way I think it will, the Pack and the Pats will meet in a rematch of Superbowl XXXI, and we’ll have one of the highest scoring title games in the history of the big game.  The record currently stands at 75 combined points, and we may beat that by the third quarter.

The modern cliché is that defense wins championships, and as it stands, never in the history of the league have the two worst regular season defenses played each other in the Superbowl.  But this is the year of the offense, and with McCarthy and Rodgers in the NFC, and Belichick and Brady in the AFC, how can you not root for it?

Superbowl LXXXVI

  By Chris Speziale | 02/11/2010 - 9:54 am | Musings, Predictions
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On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!).  The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com.  The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years.  Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it.  Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts.  29!  That’s more than half of the active roster!  My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season.  When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game.  That’s way too high.  But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night.  As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech.  The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport.  The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade.  But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.

Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl

The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess.  I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up.  But how does it apply to the Saints?  Well I’m glad you asked:  the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl.  With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere.  The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing.  Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.

The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s.  You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few.  And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title.  Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match.  Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.

The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year.  They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns.  That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL.  And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter.  The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat.  Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time.  Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s.  The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.

Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP.  On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games.  But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs.  Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl.  And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads.  He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old.  Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31.  With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land.  But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level.  Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree.  But, back to the Superbowl?  I just don’t see it.  With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.

Screw Egg Nog! Just give me the Pats vs. the Saints

  By Chris Speziale | 11/25/2009 - 12:04 am | Musings
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I know it’s only Wednesday, but I cannot wait until next Monday night.  Yeah, you’ve got an awesome holiday on Thursday.  You’ve got the crazy holiday shopping season kicking off on Friday. And most importantly, you’ve got Egg Nog hitting the shelves!  But Monday you’ve got the game of the year in the NFL, and I am pumped.  On ESPN’s Monday Night Football the Patriots will visit the Saints in New Orleans.  The Saints come into the game undefeated and looking to assert themselves as a clear Superbowl favorite.  The Patriots could conceivably be coming into this game with only one loss, but they lost a coin flip in Denver and handed the Colts the game in week 10 (No, we’re not going to talk about 4th and 2.  I operate like the Pats, so we’re moving on).   This is an intriguing match-up for a lot of reasons.  Both of these teams have fantastic offenses; the Saints and the Pats rank one and two in passing.  On the defensive side of the ball you have two highly underrated D’s.  So what do you watch for?

Let’s start with the Patriots offense against the Saints D.  The Patriots are coming off a highly emotional win over the Jets at Gillette Stadium.  They wanted to prove to the rest of the league that there would be no lingering effects from the loss to Indy, and they did just that.  The offense hummed, with Wes Welker catching 15 balls for a ridiculous 192 yards and the also effective Laurence Maroney, who rushed for 77 yards and two scores.  The Pats were successful against the Jets because they spread the field and exploited the mis-matches in the secondary.  This week Brady won’t have that luxury; the Saints have picked off opposing quarterbacks a league leading 20 times.  And just to add insult to non-injury, Darren Sharper will most likely be back to full strength and playing quarterback for the Saints defense. That said, the key for the Patriots is going to be the running game.  The Saints have allowed an average of 115 rushing yards per game and have let opposing running backs into the endzone 12 times this year. The Patriots also hope to get Sammy Morris back from injury this week, giving them a three-headed attack.  Look for Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to get carries on 1st and 2nd downs and Morris to come in on 3rd and short situations and around the goal line.  The Saints relentlessly pressure the quarterback, and that will be no different against a banged up Patriot offensive line, so look for Welker to be a prime target.  The Patriots will run screens early and often to keep the Saints pass rushers honest.

On the other side you’ve got Drew Brees leading a crazy good offense.  The key here is really simple.  The Patriots secondary is super young and super small.  Brees is going to look deep for Robert Meacham and Marques Colston to try and beat the Patriots rookies Darius Butler and Patrick Chung.  Those two receivers are both 6’2” or taller.  The Patriot secondary doesn’t have anyone over 6’1” and they average a little more than 5’11”.  This could be a huge problem for the Patriots.  Brees has been deadly accurate this year.  He’s got a 68% completion percentage and has a passer rating of 124 on throws of 20 or more yards.  He’ll use that accuracy to feed the ball to those tall receivers up high, where only they can catch the ball. For the Pats, getting healthy will be the key: Ty Warren is back from injury and played well against the Jets, Jerod Mayo has been getting consistently better with each passing week, and Tully Banta-Cain has been battling a rib injury but appears to be coming out of it.  Most likely we’ll see the linebackers dropping into coverage to help protect against Brees’ high-powered arm.  This again provides an opportunity for the running game to star in this match-up.  Much was made in the off-season about Pierre Thomas emerging as the star running back in New Orleans, but he has been anything but spectacular so far.  He has just under 600 yards on the ground and 5 rushing touchdowns.  Belichick will most likely use four down linemen to combat the run game and perhaps gamble on a couple of passing downs by shooting the linebackers into the gaps.

Then there’s the Superdome.  Truly there isn’t a better homefield advantage in the NFL than the Saints have in the Superdome.  In the last two years, the Saints have gone 11-2 in their building.  There will be no distractions on Monday night for “Who Dat” nation.  The stadium will be filled, and the fans will be incredibly loud.  Everyone in New Orleans wants respect, and they feel like they can get it with a win against the Patriots.  The Saints haven’t played a big game since week 6, when they beat the then undefeated New York Giants.  However, the Patriots seem to be at the center of the media frenzy every week. And they’re hoping to ride this emotional wave into New Orleans and derail the dream season these Saints have put together.

The implications of this game are huge.  I personally believe that whichever team wins will represent its conference in the Superbowl.  If the Patriots can win on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe they can win anywhere.  And they might have to.  If the Colts continue to dominate, we’ll surely see a Patriots/Colts playoff game in Indy.  If the Saints can pull this one out, it proves that they can play with and beat anyone at anytime.  In the end, it’s all going to come down to which team can make the big play on defense, and which of these two incredible QB’s can make the fewest mistakes. Regardless of the outcome, we’re about to see one of the great match-ups in the league this season.  I know I’ll be glued to the TV.  You should be too.