Tag Archives: mlb

Trade Bait

  By Chris Speziale | 07/19/2011 - 11:58 am | Musings
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We knew they'd hit, but could the Sox starters hold it down?

The sights, and sounds, and smells of summer are in full swing, but it feels like Christmas!  Christmas in July, that is.  The Major League Baseball non-waiver trading deadline is under two weeks away, and it’s no secret that July 31st is one of my favorite days of the year.  It takes a lot to win a World Series Championship, and most teams don’t have all the pieces right at the outset.  The trading deadline allows the major players in the league to go out and get those missing pieces that they hope will put them over the top.  The coverage is always completely ridiculous, and now with most of the “insiders” using Twitter, this season promises to be even more in your face.  It’s exciting to follow along to see where the pieces land, which is why it’s so hard for me to say that the Sox need to stand pat.  Momentum can swing in a huge way after this day has come and gone, but as we approach this yearly shift in baseball, a warning: don’t sell the farm.

 

The Red Sox are in first place in the A.L. East, and show no signs of slowing down over the last three months of the season.  There are a number of positions that are producing at numbers that don’t quite live up to expectations, but we’re alright.  With a one game lead and 68 games to play in the season, the Red Sox will pick up major pieces without having to trade for anyone.  If you run down the roster, there are two positions that you could highlight as trouble spots for the Sox as they head down the stretch—starting-pitching and right field.

 

As we entered the season, the offense was supposed to be monstrous, and it has been.  So why mess?  Yes, JD Drew has been lackluster at best in right, but with Josh Reddick knocking the cover off the ball, we’ve got a nice platoon out there in right. The two big guns on the trade market, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Ludwick, wouldn’t provide enough of an upgrade to warrant a farm system fire sale, and there will surely be a piece that will pass through waivers later in the summer that Boston could use to spell Drew and Reddick at the 9thposition.  The Sox have scored more runs, have more extra base hits, and have the highest batting average in the majors.  They are who we thought they were, so let’s leave them be.  It’s the starting rotation that had all the question marks back in March.

 

Is Josh Beckett due for a comeback?  Which Clay Buchholz will we see to start the season?  Do Dice-K and Wakefield have anything left in the tank?  And finally, was the worst free agent pitching contract in Red Sox history signed by John Lackey?  Now that we’ve gone through two-thirds of the season, we can answer a number of those questions.  Yes, Beckett was due for a comeback, and he has been tremendous.  Buchholz isn’t quite as good as his break-out 2010 campaign may have shown, but when healthy, he may be the best number three starter in the league.  Dice-K is done, and Wakefield is spitting straight in the face of father time.  And yes, John Lackey is just plain terrible.  All of that said—the Red Sox don’t need to go out and get a starting pitcher.

 

When Lester and Buchholz come back from the DL, and it is my personal opinion that we shouldn’t see either of them back in the bigs for at least a month, it will be like they went out and got a true number one and a true number three.  Let’s not forget here people, Boston is in first place in the toughest division in the league.  So Theo, if you’re reading, give those guys some time to get themselves right, trust the team you have, and don’t mortgage the farm to get a starting arm come the deadline.

Yooouuuuu-ouch

  By Chris Speziale | 06/22/2011 - 12:50 pm | Musings
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Kevin Youkilis is too important to the Boston Red Sox to be playing through pain in June.

Maybe I’m crazy.  Maybe I’m completely and totally out of my gourd.  Maybe I’m so wrong that it makes “The Decision” look like a good idea, but isn’t Kevin Youkilis important to the Boston Red Sox?  This seems like an almost redundant question, doesn’t it?  But if that’s truly the case, why is he being handled this way?

 

Youk has been playing through some pretty severe pain over the last ten days, as he contends with an ankle sprain of unknown severity.  For some unclear reason, Terry Francona and the Sox bigwigs have been trotting him out to play third base in meaningless early June games.  It was most evident in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers last week.  The Red Sox All-Star hit a chopper up the first base line and as he started toward the base, he clearly pulled up and grimaced in pain.  The following half inning, and every inning since, Youk has been out in the field playing a very difficult position that requires agility and a quickness on your feet that he clearly doesn’t have at the moment.

 

To his credit, and in form with his true competitive nature, he hasn’t let the ankle get the better of him. And perhaps that’s the reason that Francona has left him in games.  But it just doesn’t make sense to have your clean-up hitter playing through pain in June!  Let Youk sit for a couple games, and give one of the two Sox corner infield prospects a shot.  Better yet, let BOTH of them have a chance.

 

Drew Sutton has performed more than admirably in his time with the big club, hitting .314 while slugging .514 and committing only a single error in 17 games.  Then there’s Yamaico Navarro, who’s currently sitting on a .925 OPS in Pawtucket while playing the hot corner for the Sox.

 

Here’s my thought: Put Youk on the 15-day DL and call up Navarro.  Insert Navarro against lefties, and Sutton against righties.  The minor leaguer is hitting over .320 against southpaws this season, while Sutton is over .340 against righties.  Hello!  This thing on?  Why risk further injury to one of your most important players, when you have two completely capable backups who could clearly benefit from playing time on the big league level?

 

I understand the argument that Youk is an integral part of the Red Sox lineup, and that he’s finally catching his stride after an excruciatingly slow start, but let me leave you with a couple more numbers to make my case.  The 2010 Red Sox were 60-44 with Kevin Youkilis in the lineup, and 29-29 without him.  The 2011 version will need to play better than .500 ball if they hope to stay ahead of a very talented Yankee team and a very resilient Tampa team.  Can Theo and Tito really risk losing this guy?  I say no, hot hitter or not.

The Definition of Class

  By Chris Speziale | 06/03/2010 - 6:53 pm | Musings
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It was clear to viewers that Joyce blew the call. What no one expected were the reactions that followed the 28 out perfecto.

Watching Armando Galarraga deliver the lineup card to Jim Joyce before today’s game was one of the classiest things I have EVER seen in sports.  In case you missed it…like I did…Armando Galarraga was one out away from throwing the 3rd perfect game in less than a month last night.  Jason Donald hit a weak grounder up the first base line, which pulled Miguel Cabrera off the bag.  Galarraga covered the base and caught the flip from Cabrera a step and a half ahead of the runner.  Cabrera’s arms went up to celebrate, Galarraga’s arms went up to celebrate, and so did the arms of first base umpire Jim Joyce…to signal the runner safe.  Joyce claims that when he made the call, he thought it was correct. It was really close, but with instant replay you can see that the runner was out. If you watch the replay you can see Donald clutching his helmet after the safe call.  Even he knew he was out, and so did the 17,738 fans in attendance.

 

The human element is a huge part of baseball, and I have to give props to the mummy commissioner of MLB.  Selig came out today and said that he wasn’t going to overturn the call to give Galarraga the perfecto.  And this is the right call.  If we give the power of the official scorer to the Commissioner’s Office, we’re opening up Pandora’s box.  Every fan, player, manager and sports agent will be busting down Selig’s door to change things.  No good.  What Selig has done is say that he’ll review the instant replay rules, and that is a big win for baseball.  I said that human error is a part of the game–yes, but I like giving the umpires the opportunity to fix those mistakes during the course of a game.  Do I know who would be in charge of replay, or what would qualify as a reviewable play?  No.  Do I know if it would slow the pace of play?  No.  What I do know is that if they can get this figured out, mistakes like the one that cost Armando his perfect game would be a thing of the past.  Good on yah, Selig.

 

Jim Leyland absolutely laid into Joyce after the game ended, not after the play happened.  Of course, he came out and argued, but he waited until Galarraga recorded the 28th out of the game to really let him have it.  And he had every right to.  He was defending his player and trying to protect his place in history.  But I like that he kept his cool during the game and waited until it was over to truly voice his displeasure.  He sent a good message to his team, and in his post-game interview, he sent an even better message to the fans.  Leyland asked Tiger fans not to boo Joyce before the next game, saying that “today’s a day for Detroit to be a class act…today is a day to cheer the integrity of an umpire.”  Mr. Leyland, you sir are classy.

 

And speaking about the integrity of an umpire–how bout Jim Joyce.  I mentioned earlier that Joyce thought he had made the right call on the field, and I like that.  You need to stand by your decisions.  What I like even more was that he had the courage to watch the play after the game was over and to admit that he made a mistake.  Of course he didn’t want to blow the call.  But he did, and he owned it.  He took history away from a young player, and he could not feel worse about it.  The man was an emotional mess.  He takes pride in what he does, and he’s been praised by players and managers alike for his fair and even calls.  Before his post-game interview, he went so far as to search Galarraga out and personally apologize.  And I know that apologies won’t give the Tigers’ starter his gem back, but Joyce could have huffed and puffed about how it was his call to make and that that is how the game is played.  But he didn’t.  Jim Joyce, you are classy indeed.

 

Then you have Galarraga–I don’t think anyone could have handled this situation better than he has.  When the play happened he should have flipped.  I would have flipped.  I think any other player would have flipped.  But he didn’t, he sort of wryly smiled and walked back to the mound.  He kept his composure and finished off Trevor Crowe with five more pitches, as Donald took second and third on defensive indifference.  In all of his post-game interviews he didn’t put blame on Joyce, he kept stating that what happened happened and there is no changing it.  Today, Jim Joyce got home plate as his assignment in Detroit, and Galarraga was the one exchanging lineup cards with the umpiring crew and Cleveland’s skipper.  As Armando shook his hand, Joyce started to tear up.  The crowd cheered as he came out of the dugout, and he tipped his cap.  He just wants to move on.  Was he upset?  Of course he was, but he held no ill will, and he showed that in a world where players lie, cheat, and steal to get themselves to the top, there is still just a little bit of integrity left.  And that makes him the classiest of all.

Ock Mock

  By Chris Speziale | 03/23/2010 - 12:00 pm | Impress Your Friends, Predictions
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Yeah, it’s been a while. Sorry about that. Life comes at you fast, right? Anyway—we’re about two weeks away from the start of the MLB regular season, and that means Fantasy Baseball is in full swing. I figured there was no better way to jump back into the blogosphere than hitting up the Fantasy Sport that bore all fantasy sports.

I have always been a HUGE fan of fantasy baseball—going all the way back to live drafts at my Uncle Gerald’s house in Tewksbury, Massachusetts. My uncle ran the league and put all the stats together himself. Every week when we would see each other at my grandfather’s house, he would have print outs with all the standings and player stats from the previous week. Now, when you’re 9 years old, it’s all about picking up your favorite players so that you can root for them all year long. It was always cool to win and have the best team, but in the end for a kid it was all about the players. I remember visiting Cooperstown one summer almost immediately following my Uncle’s draft; I was so excited about my team that I had to go to the card shop and buy the card of every player I had drafted. That’s what it was all about, but as you get older it’s all about smoking everyone. Don’t lie—I know all the fantasy freaks out there are nodding their heads. You want to beat up on your friends, your family, or the complete strangers that you draft with in some random league—that’s just the way it is.

But, why the change? I, personally, think it’s about the growth of the competitive spirit. When you’re 7 years old, you don’t compete with your fellow 3rd graders to see who color best inside the lines, but as soon as you hit middle and high school you’ve surely become a cog in the competitive machine. You want to be tops in your class, you want the best role in the school play, you want to make the football team or cheerleading squad—everything revolves around competition, so why shouldn’t the same ring true in Fantasy sports?

Fantasy sports have exploded over the past decade, and the technology behind them has also improved greatly. Gone are the days of the paper print out—bring on the draft kits, scouting reports, insiders, and mock drafts, the last of which will be today’s topic. There is tons of info out there, in tons of different formats, but I think the most helpful is the mock draft. It provides you an opportunity to see how the average baseball fan is drafting. It also provides you an opportunity to see how your own drafting strategy will play out. I ran a mock draft for myself on ESPN.com this afternoon, and I’d like to share a couple of general observations. First though, because it will come up later, take a look at my team:

C Matt Wieters
1B Justin Morneau
2B Rickie Weeks
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B/SS Casey McGehee
1B/3B Alex Gordon
OF Andre Ethier
OF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Chris Coghlan
OF Chris Young
OF Kyle Blanks
UTIL Conor Jackson
SP Zack Grienke
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Tim Hudon
SP Rich Harden
SP Ted Lilly
SP Ben Sheets
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Andrew Bailey
RP Carlos Marmol
BE Magglio Ordonez
BE Orlando Cabrera
BE Phil Hughes

Not bad huh? What’s even cooler is the new feature added to ESPN drafts if you’re an “insider” like myself. They will calculate the league’s finish, based on projected numbers for each player drafted on each fantasy team in real-time. And the collection of guys you see listed above was good enough for second place with 78 points. Of course projections are often wrong in some way or another, and I guarantee you that none of the players will perform exactly as “expected.”

While projections are nice, the real reason you do a mock draft is to see where players are taken. Every fantasy owner comes into his or her draft with a strategy; most likely this strategy is based on gut feelings with a little statistical research mixed in. My strategy in most years is to draft high on potential, take a couple of injury risks and make sure you nail down at least 3 sure things. But we’ll get more into that later. Let’s look at some of the surprises:

  • Johan Santana fell to the 5th round – A year ago, this would have been a complete joke. He has a ton of value, but is taken late because he falls into the injury risk category. If you are nervous to take him early, make sure that you snag him if he falls to you after round five. Imagine taking Halladay in the first round and having Santana come to you in round 6. That’s a hell of a 1-2 punch.
  • There were no relief pitchers taken until round 6 – Except for Jonathan Papelbon by me in the third round. But that’s the thing! I never would have known that relievers were going to be late round pick-ups unless I had done the mock. I took Paps early because I believe the Red Sox are going to have some trouble scoring runs this year, and therefore will win a lot of close games. In my delusional Red Sox crazed head, he has a chance to lead the league in saves.
  • By the end of round 4, all of the elite catchers were off the board – Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann were gone by round 5. Lesson learned? If you want any of those guys, you have take ‘em WAAAAY early. I chose to use one of my high ceiling guys for the C position and landed Wieters in the 8th round. The Orioles catcher could end up being a steal, if he can produce the way he’s expected to.
  • People are scared of injuries – Aside from Johan Santana—Jake Peavy (10th Rnd.), Juan Rivera (17th Rnd.), Ryan Doumit (17th Rnd.) and a host of others were taken well later than normal, because they’re coming off a year in which they were injured for a majority of the season. You should make a list of guys that were injured in the previous year that you might have some interest in, and then refuse to take any of them….kidding of course, but be careful. I wouldn’t take a player coming off a major injury before the 10th round.

I’ve clearly learned a lot. But there is a ton more; you could analyze the hell out of a fantasy draft. But what I think is most important is to stick with your strategy. So how’d I do? Well, as I said, it’s all about my strategy. The high ceiling young guys? Check. See Weiters (8th Rnd.), Casey McGehee (22nd Rnd.), Alex Gordon (19th Rnd.), Kyle Blanks (18th Rnd.), Wandy Rodriguez (9th Rnd.), and Phil Hughes (25th Rnd.). The sure things? Oh yeah, got ‘em. Hanley Ramirez (1st Rnd.), Zack Grienke (2nd Rnd.), and Justin Morneau (4th Rnd.). Now, I know that Morneau could also be considered an “injury risk”, but for the sake of this argument roll with me. The injury guys? Picked them up—Icy Hot and all. Rickie Weeks (10th Rnd.), Tim Hudson (12th Rnd.), and Ben Sheets (21st Rnd.). And what’s great about my team is that the “experts” probably sold the young and injured guys short. Meaning, of course, that my team totes would’ve finished first…if it hadn’t been a mock.  But alas, it was.  That is what mocks are good for.  Use them as an outline, get online, stick to your guns and by the end of the regular season, you’ll surely be hoisting that fake (sometimes imaginary), golden trophy.

The Seven Step Post Post-Season Hangover Cure

  By Chris Speziale | 01/13/2010 - 1:52 pm | Musings
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The Pats performance made little Johnny Cry

There comes an inevitable time in every sports fan’s life when his or her team, the team that was supposed to play for the big one, puts up a big fat stinker. Cough, Patriots, Cough. It hurts– let’s not play around here. It’s a long off-season, and if you’re a Pats fan like me, you now have 8 months to stew about the sieve that is the offensive line. Brady was sacked 3 times, hit 6 more, and threw 3 interceptions. He saw pressure all day. They came out flatter than the last glass at the bottom of the pitcher; it was over by the end of the first quarter. The Pats have needs, but we’ll get to that a little later. Right now though, it’s time to mourn. Seven simple steps to help cure the Post Post-Season Hangover:

1. Alcohol – It sounds a little crazy to cure a hangover with alcohol, but at the conclusion of the game in which your team has lost in the playoffs, there will be an immediate need: beer. If you’re at home, crack a new one. If you’re out at a bar, immediately get the attention of the bartender and order another.
2. Change The Channel – When the game ends, make sure you change the channel as soon as possible. Some people take this a step farther and hit up the remote with just a few seconds left in a game. I have always been in the “You gotta watch to the end” camp, so I’m a ‘game over’ channel-changer. This is an important step; no one wants to hear those stupid broadcasters talk about your team blowing the game, or the records that have been snapped, or how long the off-season is, or who’ll be back next year, or if the dynasty is over, or if Belichick is losing his mystique, or…. I could continue, but I’m depressing the hell out of myself.
3. Look Ahead – There are other sports! Pitchers and catchers report February 23rd.
4. Facebook – In the modern sporting era there are a MILLION ways to reach out to other fans, but one of the most effective is Facebook. There will be the obligatory “I don’t know what happened, worst game ever” posts, and that’s okay. This will allow your fellow fans to grieve with you, without the interference of the mainstream media. Just remember: there’s no crying in baseball, or any other sport for that matter. Just be wary of the possible opposition taunt, and while it is rude, it does happen. If you’re lucky, they’ll give you some peace– as well they should, every fan’s been there. (Side Note: Quick thank you to Googs. I was expecting you to rag me pretty good after the Jets won and Pats lost. Thanks for letting me wallow for a bit.)
5. The DVD – This is crucial. When you return home from the bar, and you’re feeling down about your team or sports in general, you must pop a good sports movie in the DVD player. Personally, I’m watching Game 4 of the Sox/Yanks series in ’04. Nothing gets me in a better mood than seeing Dave Roberts steal that base. Fiction works too. May I suggest Rudy, Miracle, Hoosiers, Remember the Titans, For the Love of the Game, Field of Dreams, The Natural, Bull Durham, or if you’re really feeling crappy, Caddyshack. Settle in with some popcorn and your beverage of choice and let the silver screen bring back your fan mojo. Just avoid Fever Pitch at all costs.
6. The Next Day – You’re going to feel that itch, but I beg you not to scratch. Turn off the tube. You’ve made it through the day of demise– now you need to keep it going through day two. This is where a lot of people relapse and fall back into the Post Post-Season coma. It usually takes about three days before the average fan can watch a sports highlight show. Local news stations are pretty bad, but Sportscenter is the major culprit, especially on a slow sports day. They’ll start with the breakdown of all your teams’ screw-ups, and then hit you with the truly debilitating preview of your opponent’s next matchup.
7. And Finally – Did I mention, baseball starts in 6 weeks?

The Mission: Lower Concession Prices

  By Chris Speziale | 01/08/2010 - 3:31 pm | Mission Statement
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This month I wanted to write about something that has been personally irking me as a sports fan.  I was lucky enough to attend the Bruins/Rangers game at Madison Square Garden earlier this week (because my fiancée is awesome and she got me tickets for Christmas), and I was completely blown away by the price tag that connected itself to the evening.  The tickets were $37 a piece, and the seats were decent, but then we hit the concession stand.  Here’s the final run down: 4 beers, 1 hot dog, 1 order of chicken fingers w/ fries, and a pretzel.  $80 bucks!  And here’s what it costs, per sport, to take a family of 4 to a game:

MLB: $191 ($100 for tickets)

NBA: $293 ($200 for tickets)

NHL: $301 ($200 for tickets)

NFL: $421 ($300 for tickets)

In this era of economic turmoil, that is completely unacceptable.  I understand that sports are a business, and that teams are trying to make money.  But if they continue to jack up prices fans will start to turn their backs, as well they should.  The cost of attendance has been rising steadily at a 3% clip every year, and now we’re being threatened with TV blackouts if fans don’t pony up the dough to go to a game.  I’ve had enough, have you?

Dear Commissioner(s),

My name is Chris Speziale, and I write a blog on ChrisSpez.com.  The blog is centered around fans and the fan experience.  Once a month, I explore an aspect of the sports world that has been bothering fans, write a letter to a person in a position of influence, and then send that letter along with all of the readers’ comments to that person.  This month I’m tackling concession prices at major sports arenas, and I think you can help, which is why you’re receiving this letter.  We’ve had problems with TV blackouts, particularly in the NFL, in areas of the country that have been hit harder by the economic downturn, because broadcasts are tied to ticket sales.  But it’s wrong to assume that the average fan has lost interest in a team because they won’t buy tickets to see them play live; people just don’t have the expendable income.

The average sports fan who takes his family to one NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL game a year will spend almost $1200 dollars.  That’s the equivalent of paying rent for a month in New York City!  And while a large portion of this money will go towards the cost of tickets; that family will still have to spend more than $100 per event on concessions.  For that amount of money you’d expect to receive a pretty nice meal, but unfortunately we’re talking about 4 hot dogs, 2 sodas and 2 beers.  Aside from the loss of television coverage, the incentives for people to attend simply aren’t there.  But even in blackout scenario, it’s become a double-edged sword.  You attend the game at the stadium to fill the stands so that the games can be broadcast on local television.  But if you need to attend the game to get it on TV, how are you going to save money?  You need to be sitting at home on the couch to keep it in your wallet.  It’s unfair; fans are being asked to choose between dropping $400 dollars a game, and missing the game entirely.

Until our economy stabilizes, we may not see the live sporting event make a complete comeback.  But to get us by until then, we could simply lower concession prices.  I realize that the price of food and drink is not a league wide mandate in any of the four major sports, but pressure from the man running the league would help push owners to lower prices.  From there, the domino effect takes over.  Owners look good because fans appreciate the lower prices, and they start to come to games.  As more people push through the turnstiles, fewer games will be blacked out.  Money is then generated through ad and commercial sales on local broadcasts.  It puts money in the owners’ pockets, the leagues coffers, and most importantly, back into the wallets of the fans.  All of this, because you cut the cost of a hot dog at the stadium.

The American sports fan is, and always has been, hungry for quality, family friendly, live sports entertainment.  But our wallets are hungry too, and if the price of food at a game keeps rising, the leagues will be hungry for fans.  Will you help us put pressure on the Owners and GM’s?

Thank you so much for your time,

A Concerned Citizen of Sports Nation

Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

  By Chris Speziale | 12/11/2009 - 5:30 pm | Musings
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I promised you all that there would be a post every night from Indianapolis, and well…I lied.  I was a little busy trying to find a job!  The interesting this was, there really wasn’t that much going on in Indy this week.  If you’d like a list of EVERY single transaction from the last four days, you should click HERE.  I’ve always been a big fan of ESPN.com, and they did a great job keeping on top of everything, including staff hiring’s and front office stuff.  We could certainly break down every single deal that went down, but we’d be here forever.  So let’s just talk about the three biggest trades or signings that came out of the Winter Meetings this week.

Chone Figgins signs with Seattle – This was a big deal.  It was the first major signing of the off-season, and it came from the Mariners.  This was a signal; the Mariners were going to sprint out of the gate this off-season, and they wanted to spend.  Seattle wasn’t going to take no for an answer, and this manifested itself pretty quickly; the Mariners have now been linked to Jason Bay and John Lackey.  If they decide to break the bank and sign all three of those guys, they will be a force in the AL West next season.  The Mariners are also still involved in talks with Adrian Beltre. This would mean that Figgins could play a different position, as Beltre is the incumbent third-basemen; Figgins would be an upgrade over Michael Saunders in left.  Ichiro is also interested in this signing because he stands to lose his spot in the leadoff position.  It’s pretty unlikely, but possible.  They will probably end up hitting 1-2 or 9-1 with Figgins in the 2 or 9 spot. My question: Do you really want to spend $36 Million on your number 9 hitter?

Curtis Granderson is traded to the Yankees – You should always expect the Yankees to make big news in the off-season, and they certainly didn’t disappoint this year. Of the four days in Indy, this deal caused the most stir and was the only headline maker.  Let’s see if I can put this in print so that it can be understood: The Tigers trade OF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for OF Austin Jackson and LHP Phil Coke.  Detroit also sent RHP Edwin Jackson to the Diamond Backs in exchange for LHP Max Scherzer and RHP Dan Schlereth.  To finalize the deal, New York sent RHP Ian Kennedy to the D-Backs.  This was a good trade for everyone involved, including the players.  Granderson is a great clubhouse guy, and New York fans will love his work ethic. Now the Yanks can focus on bringing back Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui to play DH, and they’re good to go.  The D-Backs get two great young arms out of this deal as well.  Edwin Jackson should thrive in the NL West, thanks to the big ballparks, and the AAAA National League hitters.  Having said that, I think the Tigers are the clear cut winners on this deal.  They get they flame throwing lefty from Arizona, Max Scherzer and one of the best outfield prospects in all of baseball.  I think most importantly, the Tigers got a lot younger, AND received four players!  Even if only two of these guys become everyday players the Tigers win, and it’s very possible that two OR three of them could be on the 40 man roster when the season starts next April.

The Rangers big week – I wrote last week that I was surprised that the Rangers stayed in the playoff hunt so late into the season, and I am equally surprised by the moves they made at the meetings.  Surprised, and extremely impressed.  The Rangers traded RHP Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for RHP Chris Ray and LHP Ben Snyder.  Ray will be an excellent addition to the Rangers bullpen, and will most set-up for Frank Francisco.  Snyder is probably a year or two away from pitching in the big leagues, but his first season in the minors was a great success.  Out of the bullpen last year, he pitched 97 innings, struck out 86, and had a 2.88 ERA.  The Rangers also added RHP Rich Harden to the rotation, and this could turn out to be the signing of the year.  Harden is injury prone, and he is pulling in seven and a half million bucks next season.  But, when healthy, there is no one better.  In his career he’s averaged more than a strikeout per inning, while only allowing two walks per nine.  Harden has also come out in the past two days stating that he’d like to pitch two hundred innings this year for the Rangers, which would be a career high.  What’s lost in all of this is the grudge factor.  The A’s traded Harden to the Cubs before the trade deadline in 2008, and you have to believe that he wants to stick it to his new division rival, Oakland.  Texas is a tough place to pitch, but Harden has a point to prove and I think he could be one of the surprise stories of 2010.

So New York, Detroit, Arizona, Texas and Seattle all had good weeks.  And there will be a LOT more teams to add to that list before baseball Spring Training starts, and we’ll have all the news and analysis right here at ChrisSpez.com.  Enjoy!

National League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/03/2009 - 12:32 pm | Predictions
2 Comments

As promised, here is the next installment in the Hot Stove saga.  Feels like Twilight, doesn’t it!? Ick.  Anyway, please feel free to give this a read, and let me know what you think.  And remember to check back starting next Monday night for analysis from the Winter Meetings.  I’ll break-down the deals of the day, and at some point I’d like to do a running blog, but we’ll just have to wait and see if I can work that out.  Without further ado:

East

New York – We start our trip around the National League with the Mets.  New York has a lot of players hitting free agency, including Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, but those aren’t the major issues facing Los Mets.  The biggest hole is in left field where Gary Sheffield roamed for New York when he wasn’t injured last season.  The Mets will most definitely be in the Holliday and Bay sweepstakes and will probably make a more serious run at Holliday.  Holliday, as one of my readers pointed out, hits better in the National League than the American.  There have also been rumors circling that the Mets are looking to trade Luis Castillo.  A possible landing spot for him would be the Dodgers, who lose Orlando Hudson this off-season.  If they can’t land one of the big free agents look for them to make a move with L.A. for one of their young outfielders.

Florida – The Marlins are in pretty good shape going into the 2010 season.  They have last years Rookie of the Year in left, and a stable of good young arms to rival any team in the league.  They traded away Jeremy Hermida to Boston, which probably means that they’re comfortable with Cody Ross in right. So what are they going to be doing in the coming months?  Perhaps shopping for a corner infielder?  They are losing Nick Johnson and will be looking for some OBP to replace him.  I see Kevin Millar as a good fit here.  We know the Marlins budget won’t allow them to offer a large contract, and Millar won’t be looking for big bucks at age 38.  He is a good clubhouse guy and a great leader.  And that, is something the Marlins covet.

Atlanta – I think the Braves this winter are going to focus on in house matters.  Martin Prado is due for an extension, and they have two big names hitting free agency that they are going to try and lock up.  Adam LaRoche is one of them, and Rafael Soriano is the other.  They signed Billy Wagner to close which signals the end of the Mike Gonzalez experiment.  Gonzalez was good, but allowed a lot of runners to reach base; it appears that Wagner did enough in his short stint with Boston last year to convince the Atlanta brass that he could handle the job.  The Braves may also take a look at some of the under the radar corner outfielders to replace Garret Anderson, like Austin Kearns or Xavier Nady.

Philadelphia – The Phillies have already been busy this off-season.  They signed Brian Schnieder right out from under the Mets noses, which strengthens an already steady stable of backstops for the Phillies.  If the N.L. Champs are going to make a splash in free agency it will be looking for bullpen help.  Everyone knows that Charlie Manuel had trouble picking his closer during the playoffs this past year and I think that will be Philadelphia’s top priority.  They’ll take a look at Mike Gonzalez, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano.  The interesting thing about this list is that almost all of these guys played for division rivals last year, which means that those teams may try and drive up the price.  That’s why I think Valverde is their guy.

Washington – My advice to Ted Lerner and Stan Kasten?  Break the bank!  I had the pleasure of seeing RFK Stadium this summer and have to say, it is a fantastic place to watch baseball…if your team doesn’t suck.  The Nationals only need three pieces to contend.  Yes, yes I know that’s actually a lot of pieces, BUT it’s doable.  They need a power hitting outfielder, a closer, and a starter.  Simple: Rick Ankiel, Kevin Gregg, and Ardolis Chapman.  Ankiel and Gregg will come relatively cheaply; they are young-ish and they both have something to prove.  If Chapman is as good as they say he is, and they’re saying he’s reeeeeeeal good, he could be the number one starter on that staff for the next 10 years.  Now put Strasberg in the number two spot, with Lannan and Zimmerman at three and four!  Chapman is an enigma, and because he’d provoke curiosity, he’d put butts in the seats. That’s what the Nationals need right now; they have no revenue coming in from ticket sales or merchandising.  They could sign these three guys for a combined cost of 14 million a season and they only lose one draft pick.  It’s a no brainer; I should be the Nationals’ GM.

Central

Milwaukee – The Brewers stand to lose a lot of pieces this off-season, if they don’t come to terms with their slew of free agents.  Most notably would be Jason Kendall; the Milwaukee catcher would be sorely missed if he decides to sign elsewhere.  The Brewers saw the emergence of two young players last year and have the makings of a team that could be good for a long time. To compete next year, however, they will probably go after some pitching help; someone to help in the rotation would be the key.  For this team I like Erik Bedard or Kelvim Escobar – two guys that are coming off injury, looking to prove themselves, make sense for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh – I just…well, I really have no idea what to say about the Pirates.  They don’t have any free agent holes to fill, which is nice.  And they have a young team, which is nice.  But the Pirates seem to be constantly in a state of rebuilding, and I think that until they pull above .500 for a full season we’ll see Pittsburgh play out the first half of the season, and then sell off every valuable piece.  That’s all I really have to say about that.

Cincinnati – I have to tread lightly here.  My fiancée (the lovely and wonderful Laura Gale) grew up in Cincinnati; her family still lives there, and follows the team.  But (and here’s where I get in trouble) I just can’t get on the Reds bandwagon.  When your best pitcher last season was Bronson Arroyo, you’re in trouble.  The Reds haven’t brought in a decent free agent in years, and I not convinced that this will be the year.  They could get better with a couple of smaller pieces, like Jon Garland or Jason Marquis, but at the end of the day they’ll need their young starters to pitch well beyond their years.  What’s frustrating about the Reds is that they won’t pull the trigger on a big name until these guys consistently fail; they have too much invested.

Chicago – The Cubs are doomed.  It’s just that simple.  The front office can’t seem to get anything right.  And that’s why I think they should lock the check book in the desk this winter.  The team has the talent to win the division, and make a deep playoff run.  They just need to stay healthy, and come together as a unit.  We’ve seen all different kinds of teams win the World Series in the last decade, but I think what stands out most are the teams that squeaked by with chemistry.  Look at the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Cardinals, and I could keep going.  But the point is that they all won with smaller payrolls and an emphasis on chemistry.  And the Cubs can do just that; they will, of course, make some smaller moves to sure up their bench, but other than that, the Cubs brass should just let their previous work speak for itself.

St. Louis – The Cardinals need help in there starting rotation.  Doesn’t that sound crazy?  Joel Piniero, Todd Wellermeyer and Smoltzy have all filed for free agency leaving a HUGE hole behind the wonder twins at the top of the rotation.  I would put good money on the Cardinals making a run at John Lackey to give them an unstoppable one, two and three.  The only other hole that the Cardinals would need to look at would be at third base.  Mark DeRosa held the hot corner last year and will almost definitely be moving on to greener pastures this year.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll give rookie David Freese a look over at third if they can pull in Lackey, but if they get out-bid they could be in on the Adriane Beltre or Chone Figgins talks.

Houston – The Astros will lose at least three major pieces from the team last year.  Valverde will move on, Tejada is likely going to find a home on a contender so that he can end his career with a winner, and LaTroy Hawkins will be one of the most sought after set-up men in the league.  To fill these voids the Astros will turn to the free agent market rather than calling up prospects from the farm.  They will probably make offers to Marco Scutaro, Adam Everett or Orlando Cabrera to replace Tejada.  In the bullpen Rafael Betancourt, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel make sense in Houston.  The problem with the Astros is that they are getting older and need to compete now.  They’ll make some moves before spring training, but if they don’t contend we’ll see a fire-sale like in Pittsburgh, where they sell off pieces to restock their minor league system.

West

Colorado – The Rockies came on incredibly strong at the end of last season based on chemistry.  That should continue, with seven of nine position players returning, and four of five starters.  So what’s not to like?  Well I’ll tell yah.  The bullpen took a massive hit.  They stand to lose Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Rincon and Matt Herges.  They will most likely re-sign one or two of these guys, but will also be taking a look at the list of relievers on the market, and picking up a guy or two.  The bullpen is a big if, but the Rockies of the last couple years have been scrappy, and I think if they can make one or two decent signings, they could challenge for the N.L. Championship next season.

San Francisco – This may not be a well received opinion, but, there is no way that Tim Lincecum should have won the Cy Young this year.  This is, of course, just my opinion but I wanted to throw it out there.  Moving on…the Giants have a great starting rotation, and this is what is going to sustain them through next season.  They couldn’t hit last year, and they most likely won’t hit next year, unless they make a huge move.  The answer?  Jason Bay hitting home runs into San Francisco Bay!  The thought of hitting in front of the Kung Fu Panda for the next 6 or so years has to be enticing to Bay, especially with that starting staff.  The Giant pitchers will be good for many years to come, but if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs they’ll need a Bay…I mean bat.

San Diego – The big news surrounding the Padres this off-season is the possible departure of slugger, Adrian Gonzalez.  That said, the Padres front office doesn’t want to move him, which is just plain silly.  San Diego is about three good development years away from contending, and Gonzalez is only under contract through the end of next season.  If they hope to get ANYTHING of value from his departure it will be via trade.  Atlanta, Boston, New York (N.L.), and Chicago (A.L.) could all be a landing spots for Gonzalez, but the prospect asking price will be incredibly high.

Los Angeles – I would love to see Brad Penny go back and pitch for the Dodgers again this season.  He struggled in Boston for most of last year but I think he’s still got gas in the tank, and could completely dominate in the National League West.  The Dodgers need arms like most teams do, but I think they’ll be checking out the bargain basement deals this winter.  Penny is a name that jumps out; I also think that Pedro Martinez could be on Torre’s short list.  We all know that Pedro and Manny had a torrid love affair and would be stoked to reunite in sunny SoCal.  Add that to the fact that Pedro has already come out and said that he wants to pitch a full season next year, and you’ve got a match made in heaven.

American League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/02/2009 - 9:00 am | Predictions
2 Comments

Everyone and their mom thinks they have some idea about what their favorite baseball team will do this off-season, and I am clearly no different.  Baseball is my sport and I feel like I know it well, so I wanted to share my ideas with you.  The winter meetings are less than a week away, and the possible moves are surely about to start leaking out into the media.  Today I drop the American League list, and barring any permanent damage to my eyes from writing this column for five hours, I’ll bring you the National League tomorrow.  Also make sure you check back here every night starting next Monday.  I’ll be updating nightly from the Winter Meeting craziness in Indianapolis. That’s right, your favorite sports blogger is hitting the meetings baby!  Now, find your team on the list below and let me know what you think!

East

Tampa Bay – Tampa never figures to be one of the teams to land big name free agents, and I don’t believe that’s going to change this off-season.  Oddly though, this is one of the reasons why you have to respect this franchise so much.  The past two years they have been contenders in the A.L. East, even though they are a bottom up team and will most likely fill all of their holes this off-season from within.  That said, they will lose a lot of arms in the bullpen, and they could take from the free agent pool to help in that area.  They’ll look at names like Danys Baez, Juan Rincon, Claudio Vargas and Josh Fogg.  However, don’t look for them to sign any arbitration-eligible type A or B free agents.  The Rays are a team that don’t easily give up their draft picks.

Toronto – The big story surrounding the Blue Jays this off-season will be Roy Halladay.  He just recently announced that he won’t re-sign with Toronto if his contract expires, and he won’t accept a trade once the season starts.  Basically, he’s made sure the new GM up north knows that he best move him before spring training.  The most likely candidates are of course going to be the large market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cubs and Tigers, but the key here is going to be what Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos requests in a Halladay trade.  I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the asking price were too steep for any team to bite.  That would leave an angry Doc on the mound for the Blue Jays this season in a contract year.  Scary.

Baltimore – The Orioles team from last year is almost completely intact.  That, however, is the bad news.  The good news is that they are losing the aging contract of Melvin Mora and can more freely spend on a corner infielder like Nick Johnson or Chone Figgins.  Figgins will most likely be hotly pursued by teams with much looser purse strings than Baltimore, so look for them to go after Johnson hard.  They could also make a run at Juan Uribe, depending on where they want Ty Wigginton to play next year.  He spent some time at both first and third last season.

Boston – Ah, where to begin with my hometown team.  My guess is that Jason Bay won’t come back as the Sox left fielder next year, BUT Boston will sign Matt Holliday in his place.  They will most likely let Bay walk to get the draft pick that the team that signs him will have to give up.  The next issue is shortstop:  today Boston announced that they may move Pedroia over to short and go after a defensive-minded second basemen instead.  Felipe Lopez will most likely be on the radar if that is the case; he will be relatively affordable (probably 3 years at 5 mil a year) and has a career .977 fielding percentage at second.  Now…Halladay, is where it gets tricky.  Would he be fantastic at Fenway?  You bet.  Could the Sox sign him to a long term deal?  Or course.  Will his arm eventually turn gangrenous and fall off in the middle of an inning?  Sure is possible! Halladay has been the ONLY workhorse for the Blue Jays the last couple of years, sometimes throwing 140 pitches a game.  He’s going to wear down eventually and that’s why I think the Red Sox won’t throw everything they have at Toronto to get him.

New York – The Yankees need an outfielder, but I just don’t see them in the race for Bay or Holliday.  The front office put a ton of money into the team last off-season and they will be in great shape for a while.  They will mostly make smaller moves like the Red Sox did last year and let the big names they signed last off-season grow and continue to carry the team.  They may take on a veteran contract like Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad or Garret Anderson, and if they wanted to go a little younger they could look at Austin Kearns, who will come cheaply because he has only played on terrible teams and is undervalued at his position.   They will most likely re-sign Jose Molina to be the back-up catcher and Johnny Damon to work in tandem with Jorge Posada at DH. The Yankees of course will be players in the Halladay craziness but are an unlikely candidate to take the bait.  Aside from the little moves, mentioned previously, I think the Yankee front office will be pretty quiet this winter.

Central

Cleveland – The Indians are an enigma.  They have the look of a team in rebuilding mode but are only a couple of pieces away from competing in a very mediocre division.  My money would be on the Indians making a play for a third basemen and some help in the starting rotation.  If Cleveland can land a name like Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf or Rich Harden, they will have a patchwork but decent one-two punch at the top of the rotation.  They could also take a look at giving Ben Sheets an incentive-laden contract in his post-injury year.  The Indians have a lot of young talent, and my guess is that they’ll play it safe this off-season and see where the chips fall once play begins.  If they are contending at the trade deadline, I think we’ll see them pull out the stops to land a big-time pitcher and make a playoff push.

Kansas City – Well, if you read the blog you know that the Kansas City Royals lost a LOT of games last year, but they have a crazy good pitcher at the top of their rotation.  If they are to come close to contending next year, they are going to need more arms.  Ben Sheets could also be a good option here.  Kansas City is the smallest of markets, but he will only cost a lot if he pitches well. This is because he will almost definitely receive a contract that will pay him based on incentives, like strikeouts, and the number of starts he makes.  The Royals are set on the corners with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but they could also take a look at help in the outfield or the middle infield.  They will look to get younger and better on defense, and therefore, may make a run at Adam Everett or Khalil Greene to solidify their infield.

Detroit – The Tigers have a ton of work to do, and I’m not afraid to say it.  They could potentially lose 2 starters from last year, as well as their closer, set-up man, and DH.  The Tigers, though, are not afraid to spend some dough to fill these holes; they had the fifth highest payroll in the majors last year.  If they can fill the two gaps in the middle infield, perhaps with Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera, and re-sign Rodney to close games, this team could be very dangerous next season.  These are all big ifs of course; the Detroit brass could decide to let those contracts go and turn this into a rebuilding year.  There have been rumors surrounding Miguel Cabrera’s availability, and any deal involving Miggy would land the Tigers a prospect mother-load.  That said, I just don’t see Detroit sitting on the side lines with a starting rotation that is as solid as you’ll find in the league.

Minnesota – The Twins traded away Carlos Gomez to the Brewers because they have a hunch that Denard Span can be the everyday centerfielder in Minnesota, and I think that was a great move.  Span hit .311 last year in almost 600 at bats and will most likely be the lead-off hitter on opening day.  The only hole left by departing free agents will be at third base, now that Joe Crede has decided to hit the open market.  We may see the Twins go after Mark DeRosa or give Adrian Beltre a shot.  Aside from that, the field is pretty much set for the Twins.  The biggest issue facing Minny this year will be starting pitching.  As last season ended, we saw the emergence of Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing.  But, to compete in that division and make a deep playoff run, the Twins may need to go out and get a back of the rotation type of guy.  They’ll take a look at guys like Livan Hernandez, Todd Wellemeyer, and Vincente Padilla; they may also kick the tires on some old guys like Pedro, Petitte, or Jarrod Washburn.

Chicago – The White Sox don’t actually have a lot of work to do.  They’ve already signed Omar Vizquel to play short and traded to get Mark Teahan, who can play any outfield position but will most likely spend most of his time in left.  Their starting rotation is solid, barring injury, and they have a great closer in Bobby Jenks.  The only position that Chicago needs to look at is catcher, and there aren’t that many impact backstops on the market right now.  They may look at Torrealba from Colorado or Josh Bard from Washington, but neither one of these guys scream Chicago to me.  Most likely they’ll give their rookie catcher Tyler Flowers a look.  He hit .297 with 15 home runs in the minors last year.  If the White Sox decide to make a move other than at catcher, they’ll most likely look for some help spelling DJ Carrasco and Scott Linebrink in the bullpen.  They may also add some depth on the bench to back up the corner infielders.

West

Oakland – Honest to god, I had no idea who Andrew Bailey was when he won the Rookie of the Year award two weeks ago.  I admit it-  I just completely overlooked him.  Upon further review…holy crap, this kid is good. He whiffed 91 batters in 83 innings and racked up 26 saves.  I think it’s safe to say that the A’s have the closer role locked up for a couple years.  And while the bullpen may be set for a while, the rest of the team is in some serious trouble.  The A’s are going to rely heavily on their young players to make an impact this year.  They are losing the aging contracts of Nomar Garciaparra and Brett Tomko and most likely will be looking for a veteran bat to help the youngsters out.  The most likely candidate would be Nick Johnson.  He fits into Billy Beane’s money-ball philosophy and could be a bargain if the A’s can convince his agent that there are durability issues.

Seattle – The Mariners have already landed their major prize this off-season in Ken Griffey Jr.  He was signed so that fans will come back to watch what will most likely be his final year as a player.  His new deal has incentives based on fan attendance and his ability to stay on the active roster for the whole year.  So, clearly the front office isn’t expecting Grif to hit 50 home runs this season.  So where’s the pop coming from?  Most likely Russell Branyan will re-sign, but if he doesn’t, look for the Mariners to make a run at Hideki Matsui.  It would be a perfect fit for Godzilla; he would be closer to his fan base in Japan, and it would put him on a roster with another of the greatest Asian-born players in the history of the league.  It also benefits Seattle.  The main reason the Branyan deal hasn’t been done is Russell’s insistence on a multi-year contract.  The Mariners are looking to offer no more than a two-year deal, which is perfect for the injury-prone Matsui.

Texas – I’m still surprised that the Rangers were in the playoff picture towards the close of the season, but they proved they were the real deal.  I think the Rangers are going to build on the success of last year and challenge the Angels for the division title next year.  The Texas bigwigs don’t have a lot to do this off-season, and I think that will benefit them in the long run.  They are returning all of their position players from last season, as well as the top arms in their rotation.  I think if you see the Rangers go after anyone, it will be a DH- Vlad Guerrero perhaps?  The Angels denied Vlad salary arbitration, and the Rangers would love to get an angry Guerrero into their line-up.  The Rangers could also use a starter.  Joel Piniero would fit perfectly into this rotation.  He is a ground ball pitcher, and in a ballpark like Arlington, keeping the ball on the ground is paramount.

Los Angeles – Last, but certainly not least, are the Angels.  They are in an interesting spot this off-season.  They are arguably losing more important pieces than any other team.  John Lackey and Chone Figgins have filed for free agency, leaving the Angels with some major holes to fill.  I believe that the spot at third will be filled via free agency, and the hole at the top of the rotation will be filled via a trade.  Did I mention earlier in the article that Roy Halladay happens to be on the market?  Now, I still don’t think Halladay will move, but if he does, I think the team most likely to get him will be the Angels.  Hear me out.  The Angels have a winning culture (which Halladay likes), they can pay him (which Halladay likes), and they are a warm weather city (which Halladay likes).  Now the big question is, do the Angels have the prospects and Major League talent to land him?  I think they do.  With a package including Fabio Martinez Mesa (204 Ks in 136 inn. last year, with a 3.03 career minor league ERA), Hank Conger (.296/.350/.464, 11HRs, 68RBI in the minors last season), and a major league arm like Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders, I think the Angels could come away with the biggest prize of the off-season.

Zack Greinke > The Kansas City Royals

  By Chris Speziale | 11/18/2009 - 12:52 pm | Impress Your Friends
1 Comment

Did you know that Zack Greinke won the A.L. Cy Young Award yesterday?  Did you also know, that his team had the lowest win percentage of any team in history to have a Cy Young winner?  Kansas City won 65 games last year, good for a .401 win pct.  Next on the list of lowly teams with lights out pitchers: The 1996 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 74 games for a .457 win pct., and had Pat Hentgen take home the most prestigious pitching prize in the American League. Like the alliteration?