Tag Archives: free agency

Superbowl LXXXVI

  By Chris Speziale | 02/11/2010 - 9:54 am | Musings, Predictions
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On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!).  The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com.  The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years.  Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it.  Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts.  29!  That’s more than half of the active roster!  My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season.  When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game.  That’s way too high.  But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night.  As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech.  The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport.  The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade.  But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.

Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl

The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess.  I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up.  But how does it apply to the Saints?  Well I’m glad you asked:  the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl.  With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere.  The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing.  Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.

The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s.  You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few.  And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title.  Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match.  Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.

The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year.  They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns.  That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL.  And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter.  The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat.  Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time.  Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s.  The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.

Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP.  On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games.  But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs.  Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl.  And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads.  He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old.  Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31.  With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land.  But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level.  Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree.  But, back to the Superbowl?  I just don’t see it.  With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.

National League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/03/2009 - 12:32 pm | Predictions
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As promised, here is the next installment in the Hot Stove saga.  Feels like Twilight, doesn’t it!? Ick.  Anyway, please feel free to give this a read, and let me know what you think.  And remember to check back starting next Monday night for analysis from the Winter Meetings.  I’ll break-down the deals of the day, and at some point I’d like to do a running blog, but we’ll just have to wait and see if I can work that out.  Without further ado:

East

New York – We start our trip around the National League with the Mets.  New York has a lot of players hitting free agency, including Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, but those aren’t the major issues facing Los Mets.  The biggest hole is in left field where Gary Sheffield roamed for New York when he wasn’t injured last season.  The Mets will most definitely be in the Holliday and Bay sweepstakes and will probably make a more serious run at Holliday.  Holliday, as one of my readers pointed out, hits better in the National League than the American.  There have also been rumors circling that the Mets are looking to trade Luis Castillo.  A possible landing spot for him would be the Dodgers, who lose Orlando Hudson this off-season.  If they can’t land one of the big free agents look for them to make a move with L.A. for one of their young outfielders.

Florida – The Marlins are in pretty good shape going into the 2010 season.  They have last years Rookie of the Year in left, and a stable of good young arms to rival any team in the league.  They traded away Jeremy Hermida to Boston, which probably means that they’re comfortable with Cody Ross in right. So what are they going to be doing in the coming months?  Perhaps shopping for a corner infielder?  They are losing Nick Johnson and will be looking for some OBP to replace him.  I see Kevin Millar as a good fit here.  We know the Marlins budget won’t allow them to offer a large contract, and Millar won’t be looking for big bucks at age 38.  He is a good clubhouse guy and a great leader.  And that, is something the Marlins covet.

Atlanta – I think the Braves this winter are going to focus on in house matters.  Martin Prado is due for an extension, and they have two big names hitting free agency that they are going to try and lock up.  Adam LaRoche is one of them, and Rafael Soriano is the other.  They signed Billy Wagner to close which signals the end of the Mike Gonzalez experiment.  Gonzalez was good, but allowed a lot of runners to reach base; it appears that Wagner did enough in his short stint with Boston last year to convince the Atlanta brass that he could handle the job.  The Braves may also take a look at some of the under the radar corner outfielders to replace Garret Anderson, like Austin Kearns or Xavier Nady.

Philadelphia – The Phillies have already been busy this off-season.  They signed Brian Schnieder right out from under the Mets noses, which strengthens an already steady stable of backstops for the Phillies.  If the N.L. Champs are going to make a splash in free agency it will be looking for bullpen help.  Everyone knows that Charlie Manuel had trouble picking his closer during the playoffs this past year and I think that will be Philadelphia’s top priority.  They’ll take a look at Mike Gonzalez, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano.  The interesting thing about this list is that almost all of these guys played for division rivals last year, which means that those teams may try and drive up the price.  That’s why I think Valverde is their guy.

Washington – My advice to Ted Lerner and Stan Kasten?  Break the bank!  I had the pleasure of seeing RFK Stadium this summer and have to say, it is a fantastic place to watch baseball…if your team doesn’t suck.  The Nationals only need three pieces to contend.  Yes, yes I know that’s actually a lot of pieces, BUT it’s doable.  They need a power hitting outfielder, a closer, and a starter.  Simple: Rick Ankiel, Kevin Gregg, and Ardolis Chapman.  Ankiel and Gregg will come relatively cheaply; they are young-ish and they both have something to prove.  If Chapman is as good as they say he is, and they’re saying he’s reeeeeeeal good, he could be the number one starter on that staff for the next 10 years.  Now put Strasberg in the number two spot, with Lannan and Zimmerman at three and four!  Chapman is an enigma, and because he’d provoke curiosity, he’d put butts in the seats. That’s what the Nationals need right now; they have no revenue coming in from ticket sales or merchandising.  They could sign these three guys for a combined cost of 14 million a season and they only lose one draft pick.  It’s a no brainer; I should be the Nationals’ GM.

Central

Milwaukee – The Brewers stand to lose a lot of pieces this off-season, if they don’t come to terms with their slew of free agents.  Most notably would be Jason Kendall; the Milwaukee catcher would be sorely missed if he decides to sign elsewhere.  The Brewers saw the emergence of two young players last year and have the makings of a team that could be good for a long time. To compete next year, however, they will probably go after some pitching help; someone to help in the rotation would be the key.  For this team I like Erik Bedard or Kelvim Escobar – two guys that are coming off injury, looking to prove themselves, make sense for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh – I just…well, I really have no idea what to say about the Pirates.  They don’t have any free agent holes to fill, which is nice.  And they have a young team, which is nice.  But the Pirates seem to be constantly in a state of rebuilding, and I think that until they pull above .500 for a full season we’ll see Pittsburgh play out the first half of the season, and then sell off every valuable piece.  That’s all I really have to say about that.

Cincinnati – I have to tread lightly here.  My fiancée (the lovely and wonderful Laura Gale) grew up in Cincinnati; her family still lives there, and follows the team.  But (and here’s where I get in trouble) I just can’t get on the Reds bandwagon.  When your best pitcher last season was Bronson Arroyo, you’re in trouble.  The Reds haven’t brought in a decent free agent in years, and I not convinced that this will be the year.  They could get better with a couple of smaller pieces, like Jon Garland or Jason Marquis, but at the end of the day they’ll need their young starters to pitch well beyond their years.  What’s frustrating about the Reds is that they won’t pull the trigger on a big name until these guys consistently fail; they have too much invested.

Chicago – The Cubs are doomed.  It’s just that simple.  The front office can’t seem to get anything right.  And that’s why I think they should lock the check book in the desk this winter.  The team has the talent to win the division, and make a deep playoff run.  They just need to stay healthy, and come together as a unit.  We’ve seen all different kinds of teams win the World Series in the last decade, but I think what stands out most are the teams that squeaked by with chemistry.  Look at the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Cardinals, and I could keep going.  But the point is that they all won with smaller payrolls and an emphasis on chemistry.  And the Cubs can do just that; they will, of course, make some smaller moves to sure up their bench, but other than that, the Cubs brass should just let their previous work speak for itself.

St. Louis – The Cardinals need help in there starting rotation.  Doesn’t that sound crazy?  Joel Piniero, Todd Wellermeyer and Smoltzy have all filed for free agency leaving a HUGE hole behind the wonder twins at the top of the rotation.  I would put good money on the Cardinals making a run at John Lackey to give them an unstoppable one, two and three.  The only other hole that the Cardinals would need to look at would be at third base.  Mark DeRosa held the hot corner last year and will almost definitely be moving on to greener pastures this year.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll give rookie David Freese a look over at third if they can pull in Lackey, but if they get out-bid they could be in on the Adriane Beltre or Chone Figgins talks.

Houston – The Astros will lose at least three major pieces from the team last year.  Valverde will move on, Tejada is likely going to find a home on a contender so that he can end his career with a winner, and LaTroy Hawkins will be one of the most sought after set-up men in the league.  To fill these voids the Astros will turn to the free agent market rather than calling up prospects from the farm.  They will probably make offers to Marco Scutaro, Adam Everett or Orlando Cabrera to replace Tejada.  In the bullpen Rafael Betancourt, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel make sense in Houston.  The problem with the Astros is that they are getting older and need to compete now.  They’ll make some moves before spring training, but if they don’t contend we’ll see a fire-sale like in Pittsburgh, where they sell off pieces to restock their minor league system.

West

Colorado – The Rockies came on incredibly strong at the end of last season based on chemistry.  That should continue, with seven of nine position players returning, and four of five starters.  So what’s not to like?  Well I’ll tell yah.  The bullpen took a massive hit.  They stand to lose Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Rincon and Matt Herges.  They will most likely re-sign one or two of these guys, but will also be taking a look at the list of relievers on the market, and picking up a guy or two.  The bullpen is a big if, but the Rockies of the last couple years have been scrappy, and I think if they can make one or two decent signings, they could challenge for the N.L. Championship next season.

San Francisco – This may not be a well received opinion, but, there is no way that Tim Lincecum should have won the Cy Young this year.  This is, of course, just my opinion but I wanted to throw it out there.  Moving on…the Giants have a great starting rotation, and this is what is going to sustain them through next season.  They couldn’t hit last year, and they most likely won’t hit next year, unless they make a huge move.  The answer?  Jason Bay hitting home runs into San Francisco Bay!  The thought of hitting in front of the Kung Fu Panda for the next 6 or so years has to be enticing to Bay, especially with that starting staff.  The Giant pitchers will be good for many years to come, but if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs they’ll need a Bay…I mean bat.

San Diego – The big news surrounding the Padres this off-season is the possible departure of slugger, Adrian Gonzalez.  That said, the Padres front office doesn’t want to move him, which is just plain silly.  San Diego is about three good development years away from contending, and Gonzalez is only under contract through the end of next season.  If they hope to get ANYTHING of value from his departure it will be via trade.  Atlanta, Boston, New York (N.L.), and Chicago (A.L.) could all be a landing spots for Gonzalez, but the prospect asking price will be incredibly high.

Los Angeles – I would love to see Brad Penny go back and pitch for the Dodgers again this season.  He struggled in Boston for most of last year but I think he’s still got gas in the tank, and could completely dominate in the National League West.  The Dodgers need arms like most teams do, but I think they’ll be checking out the bargain basement deals this winter.  Penny is a name that jumps out; I also think that Pedro Martinez could be on Torre’s short list.  We all know that Pedro and Manny had a torrid love affair and would be stoked to reunite in sunny SoCal.  Add that to the fact that Pedro has already come out and said that he wants to pitch a full season next year, and you’ve got a match made in heaven.