Tag Archives: football

The Road to Indy: Five Keys to the NFC Championship

  By Chris Speziale | 01/17/2012 - 5:04 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

Vernon Davis is important, but stopping him doesn't make the list of keys to the game

Yesterday, we ran through some important keys to the AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots, and today we’ll attempt to break down the NFC title bout between the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers. Here are five keys to a Giant victory in this Sunday’s NFC Championship game.

Jekyll and Hyde – If I had to pick a single key to this game, it would be this: which Giants running attack shows up on Sunday in San Fran?  The Giants ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing during the regular season, but in the last four games they’re averaging 122 yards, which is almost 45 yards per game higher than their regular season mark. That said, it’ll be an exceptionally difficult task for Bradshaw and Jacobs this weekend as they go up against the most stout run defense in the league.  San Fran allows 77 yards per game on the ground, and last week held New Orleans, who had come into the contest with the sixth ranked run game, to 37 yards out of the backfield.

Pass Rush – It’s rare to find two teams with a similar defensive strength facing each other this late in the season, but both New York and San Francisco have made their money rushing the passer, and both will need to keep up the pace in order to stay ahead on Sunday.  The Giants rank third in sacks, while the 49ers are seventh.  It may be more important for the Niners get to Eli than vice versa.  New York will most likely have to rely on the passing game to get ahead of a San Francisco team that will focus on slowing down Bradshaw and Jacobs out of the backfield.  The more dropbacks for Eli, the more opportunity for an effective San Francisco pass rush to turn the tide.  New York allows a full sack less per game in wins than in losses, so keep Eli upright.

Lost Puppy Face – Take keys one and two…and you get key number three.  If Giant fans end up getting a whole bunch of Eli Manning close-ups with that lost puppy look, they’re in big trouble.  As we’ve already pointed out, the 49ers will attempt to force Eli Manning to throw the ball by controlling the run game.  And lets not forget that this is a quarterback who is less than a season removed from a 25 interception campaign.  Often times his decision making is called into question, and if the San Francisco pass rush can flush Eli from the pocket or force him into throwing the ball before he’s ready, he is prone to turning it over.  In the seven Giant losses this year, Eli owns an 82.3 QB rating and has thrown 12 of his 16 interceptions.  Keeping the ball out of the hands of the San Fran defensive backs will be paramount to a Giant victory.

Wideouts – One of the ways that New York can limit the Eli turnovers will be the play of their wideouts.  Both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been outstanding for the Giants this year, and with the return of Mario Manningham from injury, New York has one of the strongest receiving corps in the league.  Nicks and Cruz are more than capable of making big plays and really controlling a defensive backfield.  Jets fans will surely remember the 99 yard touchdown catch that Cruz made in the second quarter of their Christmas Eve clash.  The grab gave the G-Men a lead they would never relinquish, and the Jets would ultimately miss the playoffs.  Keeping that in mind, it’s also important to note that the Giants #1 and #2 receivers have been guilty of dropping a number of passes this season.  The two have combined for 14 dropped balls, which is a higher number than it might appear.  They both rank in the top ten in that category in the league.

Flagged – Lastly, the 49ers have struggled with penalties this year, and while the home crowd should help keep the mental mistakes to a minimum, the Giants will need to exploit this advantage if they want to make their second trip to the Super Bowl in the last five seasons.  San Fran has committed 113 penalties this season equaling 1014 yards, which is sixth worst in the NFL.  Conversely, the Giants have forced their opponents into 110 penalties on the season which is ninth best in the league.

If the Giants can hit on all five of these keys to victory, it’s ALMOST a sure bet that they’ll be headed to Indy to take on either the Ravens or the Patriots on February 5th.  I do think that these two squads are evenly matched and very balanced.  It’ll be a game that comes down to the wire, and will most likely be low scoring.  In the end, I feel that home field and a possible rain storm moving through the area swing this one to the Niners, who’ll be heading to the Super Bowl looking for their sixth Lombardi Trophy.  Final: 26-19, San Fran

The Road to Indy: Five Keys to the AFC Championship

  By Chris Speziale | 01/16/2012 - 6:30 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

Tom Brady and the Pats are 6-1 against Joe Flacco and the Ravens

We’ve got a whole week to breakdown the matchup between the Patriots and the Ravens, but while the rest of the ESPN family of networks break down what happened in the divisional round, why don’t we jump ahead a bit, shall we? Here are five keys to a Patriot victory on Sunday, when they host Baltimore.

Protect the Ball – I know what you’re thinking.  “Really? He’s gonna start with protecting the ball? Freakin duh!”  I get it, but I don’t think you really grasp how important this will be this weekend.  The Ravens are first in the NFL in forced fumbles this season, and while New England has done a particularly good job of not putting it on the turf, that Ray Lewis led D will be in full ball hawk mode.  The Pats are first in the AFC in turnover differential, and they’ll need to win the turnover battle this weekend if they hope to knock the Ravens out of this thing.  That starts with holding on to the football.

Protect the QB – Noticing a theme here? Clearly what I’m trying to tell you is that the Ravens defense is pretty darn good.  Not only are they 1st in the NFL in forced fumbles, but they’re also first in the AFC in sacks, they hold the QB to the lowest rating in the league, and have allowed only 11 passing touchdowns this season, which, as you may have guessed is also best in the league.  Those rankings are scary if you’re a Patriot fan, but fear not! The Pats offensive line is getting healthy at just the right time, and consists of three pro-bowlers, as well as a rookie who’s played well beyond expectations this season.  They held the Broncos sackless in the massacre on Saturday night, and they’ve only allowed 11 sacks over their last five games.

Contain Ray Rice – You can’t stop him, you can only HOPE to contain him. Ray Rice leads the league in yards from scrimmage, and is fourth in total touchdowns with 15 rushing and receiving scores this season.  I don’t think there’s even a slim chance that the Pats neutralize this guy, but they must hope that the can at least keep him from having a monster game.  In the four Baltimore losses, Rice was able to get up over 100 total yards only once in a 34-14 loss to San Diego in week 14.  Additionally, the fourth year back carried the ball 13 times or less in five contests this year.  Four of those five were in losing efforts, and the fifth was in a 37-7 blowout where he saw his playing time cut down.  New England must get a lead early to force the Ravens into passing situations and keep Rice from getting his carries.

Return that Kick – Neither team will score on every possession in this game, so the kicking game will be important for both sides.  The Ravens special teams unit allows 12 yards per return on punts, and New England will need every one of those yards.  If the Pats offense gets held down, and they will occasionally, they’ll need to at least push the ball up close to midfield in order to get the Ravens pinned close to their own goal line.  The Ravens have really struggled to sustain long touchdown drives this season, managing a measly eight of more than 80 yards, only one of which came after week 9.  Field goals simply will not be enough to take down Brady and the Pats, so if New England pins them deep they’ll have a good shot.  Proof is in the pudding.

Feed the Beast – New England is 14-3 on the season, and they largely got that record using their large body.  Rob Gronkowski has been a match-up nightmare for every team in the league so far, and there’s no reason to think that that will be any different this weekend.  With no running game or deep threat, many in the sports media world discounted New Endgland’s convention defying offense.  But they persist, and it is this sportscasters opinion that they should hold true.  Why mess with a good thing? Gronk has 17 touchdowns and is averaging a ridiculous 14.7 yards per catch.  Get him the ball as often as you can, and you’ve got a great chance of winning.

Ultimately, I think the Patriots will be able to score 30, and even with a weak Patriot defense, I can’t imagine that Joe Flacco will be able to muster up enough offense to take down New England.  It’s going to be an ugly, physical, bloody battle, but it’s gonna be so much fun to watch.  Ray Lewis vs. Tom Brady for a chance to go to the Super Bowl? Sign me up.  Final: 31-23 New England

Defending Offense

  By Chris Speziale | 01/04/2012 - 2:11 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

These three guys lead the leagues best offenses. Will the O be enough to get them to Indy for Superbowl XLVI?

I’ve been hearing a lot about the Patriots lack of defensive prowess, and the hindrance that that might become down the line in the NFL playoffs, which start this weekend.  The Pats are ranked 31st in total defense, and have allowed a whopping 293 yards per game through the air to opposing offenses.  But what’s getting lost in all of this is that they’ve got the most potent offensive attack in the AFC, and they lead the conference in both point differential and turnover margin.

When the Saints made that improbable run to win the Superbowl in ’09, guess where they ranked in those two categories: first in differential and third turnover margin.  They had a top three offense, a middle of the road defense, and the number one seed in a highly competitive NFC Playoff that featured four future Hall of Fame QB’s; Favre, Rodgers, Warner and Brees.  The major difference between the ’09 Saints and the ’11 Pats? New England has, arguably, an easier road to the Superbowl!

New England won eight in a row down the stretch to ensure that as long as they were playing, they’d be playing at home, where they’ve lost only three times since 2008.  And while I’m not one to make guarantees, I’m going out on a limb and calling it now: New England will take on either the Steelers or Ravens to get to the Superbowl this year, and neither of those teams scare me. Pittsburgh is banged up at some key positions and may have already gone through two tough road games before getting to Gillette. Baltimore has struggled with offensive identity this season, and while their defense is still one of the best in the game, the team is 1-6 against New England all time.  Granted, that one win came on the road in the playoffs two years ago.

But let’s step away from the AFC for a second.  As the NFL season progressed and the Packers rattled off win after win after win in the NFC, they were pretty much crowned as the most likely repeat champs since the 2004 Pats.  But here’s the wild thing…they’re D is worse than New England’s.  So while all of the acclaim and hype was following the cheeseheads around during the regular season, opposing offenses continued to slowly figure out how to score on these guys which finally led to an abysmal week 17 performance against the Lions where they allowed 575 yards of total offense and 41 points. They rank dead last in yards allowed and passing yards allowed, while hanging around the middle third of the league in rush yards and points against. Their pass rush is suspect, they have some holes in the secondary, and the health of a couple of key defensive starters is in question heading into postseason play.

So if it’s so much of a slam dunk that the Pack will be representing the NFC with all those holes, why aren’t the Pats getting the same kind of love? The two teams almost seem like mirror images in different conferences.  And if it happens the way I think it will, the Pack and the Pats will meet in a rematch of Superbowl XXXI, and we’ll have one of the highest scoring title games in the history of the big game.  The record currently stands at 75 combined points, and we may beat that by the third quarter.

The modern cliché is that defense wins championships, and as it stands, never in the history of the league have the two worst regular season defenses played each other in the Superbowl.  But this is the year of the offense, and with McCarthy and Rodgers in the NFC, and Belichick and Brady in the AFC, how can you not root for it?

Obituary: 2010 New England Patriots

  By Chris Speziale | 10/08/2010 - 8:04 pm | Musings, Predictions
Leave a comment

It'll be halloween when Randy comes back to Gillette. But that purple outfit won't be a costume, it'll be a nightmarish reminder of what they let go.

Well, it’s been a while since I’ve thrown something up on the site. But I can be silent no longer. My beloved New England Patriots made, I think, one of the most heinous mistakes in a decade. Think back, if you will, to 2004 when we were talking about the Pats as a dynasty. They had won 3 of the last 5 Superbowls, and they started the season as the favorite to make it 4 in 6. Well, of course, that didn’t happen. New England won the division, wrecked the Jags in the Wild Card round before getting walloped themselves by the Broncos in Denver. This is when it started. The naysayers descended on the New England clubhouse. Deion Branch held out and was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for a first rounder. And everyone wondered who would catch passes from Tom Brady. The answer wasn’t the one that New England fans expected; the Pats brass held firm and kept the receiving corp the way it was. The 2006 leading receiver for the Patriots was Reche Caldwell. RECHE CALDWELL! He finished with just under 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. And despite all of that, the Patriots made it all the way to Indy, where they lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in the AFC title game.

 

Something had to change. And who better to make that change than Randy Moss. Fresh off the plane from Oakland, he was talking a big game. He yammered on and on about how this was a great fit for him because he wanted to win a championship. He had the right attitude, he looked motivated and in shape, and it appeared that the Pats had just completely changed their offense. Tom Brady was (and still is) the king of the screen. Now he had a deep target, and boy did he use it. All Moss did in his first season with the Patriots was catch 98 passes for over 1400 yards and 23 touchdowns. Are you kidding me? And yes, everyone and their mom knows what happened at the end of the 18-1 season. The helmet catch, the sieve that was the Patriots offensive line, and the NRA spokesman, Plaxico Burress, who stole the perfect season from New England. You may have thought, like I did, that that was it for Randy. That things would have gone sour in the Patriots locker room. That he’d whine and complain. After all, this is the guy whose own ego and complacent attitude got him run out of his two previous homes. But no, to everyone’s surprise, he came back the next season ready to roll. And had Brady not gone down with that knee injury, we could be talking right now about the Perfect Patriots of 2008. But he did, and even still, with Cassel at quarterback and Wes Welker emerging as the best possession receiver in the NFL, he had over a thousand yards and more touchdowns than anyone on the team.

 

Randy Moss is a hall of famer and will go down as the greatest deep threat receiver in the history of the NFL. No one will challenge his single season touchdown receptions record for years and years. And now he’s gone. Not only is it sad from a nostalgic Pats fan perspective, it straight up just killed the season for the Patriots, and I’ll tell you why. New England could basically do whatever they wanted on offense when Randy was between the lines. They could run him out deep to open the middle for Welker or Edelman, they could send him on crossing routes, they could put him in motion to confuse the secondary, the possibilities were endless. The passing game was lethal, and Brady was a masterful wizard running it. After a quarter of passing the ball, the Pats could run play-action for the rest of game. Opposing defenses never knew what hit ‘em. Not only could he catch just about anything that was thrown his way, Randy made people better. An example: the 2007 Patriots ran the ball for over 1800 yards, with Maroney (overrated), Morris (never could get it together to have a break-out year), and Faulk (much better catching the ball out of the backfield). You could never load up the box to stop the run on these guys, because Moss would absolutely murder you down the field. Cut back to the 2010 team with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the same unexplosive Morris, and some undrafted kid out of Division II Chadron State. You can essentially count the run game out. Which leads us to the now Moss-less receiving corp.

 

Welker will now be the focal point of this Patriots offense, and every team will know it. Will he still have over a hundred catches this season? You bet he will. Problem is—with Moss gone, the opposing secondary can bring safety help over the top to cut down on his yards after the catch. This’ll limit the amount of first downs New England is able to get without relying on that weak running attack to convert on short yardage scenarios. I’ve read a lot over the last couple of days about the Patriots trading draft picks for a different team-first wide receiver, and every article just makes me lol (that’s right Mr. Anderson-Hewitt, I put it in a column). The day that Bill Belichick trades away draft picks in the middle of a season is the day I streak naked through Times Square. It’s just not going to happen. And that leaves us with Welker, Edelman, and Brandon Tate. Has Tate shown that he has the talent and speed to be an impact player in the NFL? Hells yes, but that doesn’t mean that you can count on him to be your deep guy down the field. And until he proves himself capable of filling Moss’ shoes, the Patriots are in a whole heap of trouble.

The Eagle has…oh no, I’m not using that cliche.

  By Chris Speziale | 04/06/2010 - 5:53 pm | Musings, Predictions
Leave a comment

So, Donovan McNabb is a Redskin.  Well that certainly changes things now, doesn’t it?  McNabb going to D.C. has seriously changed the landscape of the NFC East, as well as, the draft board.  Washington was rumored to be interested in one of the three elite quarterbacks in the NFL draft.  Well, not anymore! In essence, a team at the bottom of the draft now has a shot at a quarterback because the Skins will pass.  With all that draft maneuvering, the McNabb trade will leave its mark on a lot of teams in the upcoming season, but none more than the Eagles and Redskin’s.

Boy, it's gonna look a lot different when he's hoisting those fingers wearing a maroon uni. Get used to it Philadelphia.

Let’s first look at Washington, because—well, we start where…guh…the Eagle landed. Yah, I did it—moving on. This is clearly a game changer for the Redskins.  They get a pro-bowl caliber quarterback a shade after his prime in exchange for, what?  A second round draft pick in 2010 and a third or fourth rounder in 2011.  Two picks, in the later rounds, for a talented veteran signal caller?  I’ll take it.  Plus, the Redskins still have four picks in the upcoming draft; one inside the top 5.  The Redskins are most likely going to take an offensive tackle with that first round pick, and my guess would be that they make a run at a couple of young wide receivers in the later rounds. And what we’ve seen McNabb do with young talent is astounding.  If you look at the seasons that DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek had last year, you’ll notice that he thrives with a group of young guns around him.  Washington would be wise to look at McNabb’s past, as they begin to revamp this team.  All that said—I think that the Redskins compete next year, maybe not for the division, but I do think that they have planted themselves firmly ahead of the Eagles.  The Philadelphia brass are going to be in some hot water, when Washington rolls into Philly next season, and lays a lickin on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has installed Kevin Kolb as their starter for next season.  Kolb, the 25 year old, Texas native, has thrown a whopping 130 career passes.  This compared to the nearly 5000 thrown by McNabb.  Can anyone say learning curve?  Kolb started two games last season for Andy Reid’s team.  The first of which, was against the now defending Superbowl Champion New Orleans Saints.  His team got wrecked.  And yes, I know that he played well—except for the 3 interceptions he threw!  But where exactly is everyone seeing this talent? That’s what I want to know.  In his next game he threw for 327 yards and two scores…..AGAINST KANSAS CITY!  Kolb is going to be surrounded with loads of young talent, and that will make him a decent starter in the NFL, at best.  However, he’ll certainly not be a standout for the Eagles, who will be looking up at Donovan and the Redskins for most—if not all—of next season.

But what I really want to talk about is how this deal went down.  Think about it for just one second.  McNabb, a year after throwing for 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns (in 14 games no less), gets traded to a division rival.  A DIVISION RIVAL!  This is ludicrous—and clearly sent one simple message: the Eagles thought McNabb was done.  Andy Reid came out at the end of the season and stated that Donovan would be their guy.  The Eagles then, not so secretly, started to shop him around.  Then came the suitors; Oakland, Buffalo, and St. Louis all stated at least a little interest.  St. Louis, after evaluating its options, pulled away from the negotiations.  Oakland offered the 39th pick in this year’s draft, and laid in wait.  And when you get right down to it, Buffalo was NEVER going to give up draft picks.  No one even saw the Redskins coming. (Side Note: I had a conversation with my good friend Chris at a bar last week and we discussed this.  He’s a big Buffalo fan, and didn’t know what to think about McNabb as a Bill.  The more I thought about it, the more I liked the idea.  Check it: You bring in McNabb for three years.  Draft Terrell Pryor out of The Ohio State University next year, and have McNabb mentor him.  McNabb makes the Bills at least a little more relevant over the next three, and then you have your quarterback of the future waiting to take over when McNabb rides off into the sunset.  But I digress.)  Washington made the best offer; the 37th pick in this year’s draft.  And the rest is history, as the cliché goes. But something just seems off about the whole thing.  The Philly bigwigs made a point to say that they went with Washington because they wanted to respect McNabb’s wishes.  Well here’s an idea: DON’T TRADE HIM!  He wanted to remain an Eagle! He wanted to finish his career in Philadelphia!  But this is a business, and the only thing that makes sense is that they clearly didn’t have faith that McNabb could get the job done.  And now—the conspiracy theory: They sent him to a division rival because they knew he would fail, thus taking one team out of that four team race, and increasing the chances of an Eagles Division Title! Whaaaaaat?!?

No disrespect to Andy Reid, but maybe this is one’s on him.  Maybe it was the coach who couldn’t put that final nail in the coffin.  Every Philly fan has griped about McNabb in the past, and they have every right too.  It’s their team, and they want to see that team win.  But here’s what I don’t get: he did.  He won a LOT of games for the Eagles.  In some cases he singlehandedly willed the team to victory.  He took them to 5 NFC Championship games, in his eleven years at the helm.  Did he win the big one?  No.  Could a change of scenery be the spark that finally puts him over the edge?  Who knows.  What I do know, is that a VERY good quarterback just got a VERY large chip on his shoulder. In two years, with an influx of new talent, McNabb could be hoisting the Lombardi trophy.  This reminds me of someone…someone in the Hall of Fame.  What’s that name?  Oh yeah!  John Elway, a quarterback with a quarter tank of gas left, but looking to prove something.  Elway’s stat line through his first eleven seasons looked like this: 34,246 YD’s, 183 TD’s, and 167 INT’s.  McNabb, through that same timeline: 32,873 YD’s, 216 TD’s, and 100 INT’s.  Um?  Wow.  I’m sure most people didn’t know that McNabb had thrown more touchdowns with fewer interceptions to start his career, than the Bronco’s quarterback of old.  Elway carried that “can’t win the big game” stigma around for a long time.  And Mike Shanahan was right there losing with him.  But they turned it around.  Big.  Elway went on to win two Superbowls with Shanahan manning the sidelines.  Now, the cosmos have aligned to bring these two super powers together, and Coach Shanahan knows what to do with a guy like McNabb. That should be something that leaves the rest of the NFC East—Eagles included—shaking in their shoulder pads.

Superbowl LXXXVI

  By Chris Speziale | 02/11/2010 - 9:54 am | Musings, Predictions
Leave a comment

On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!).  The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com.  The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years.  Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it.  Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts.  29!  That’s more than half of the active roster!  My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season.  When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game.  That’s way too high.  But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night.  As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech.  The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport.  The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade.  But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.

Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl

The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess.  I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up.  But how does it apply to the Saints?  Well I’m glad you asked:  the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl.  With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere.  The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing.  Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.

The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s.  You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few.  And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title.  Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match.  Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.

The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year.  They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns.  That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL.  And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter.  The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat.  Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time.  Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s.  The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.

Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP.  On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games.  But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs.  Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl.  And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads.  He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old.  Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31.  With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land.  But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level.  Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree.  But, back to the Superbowl?  I just don’t see it.  With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.

Flipping Rex

  By Chris Speziale | 02/01/2010 - 3:20 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

How is this not a big deal?  On Saturday night Rex Ryan flipped off the entirety of Dolphins nation.  It’s now Monday afternoon and we’ve heard little to nothing about the incident.  If this were a player, the league would have swept in and immediately either suspended or fined him.  Hell, if it were a player on Ryan’s team they’d be riding the pine for at least a game.  I’ll be the first to admit that Roger Goddell has done a fantastic job of disciplining players, teams, and coaches for breaking league rules.  And there most likely will be some sort of punishment for Mr. Ryan, but what I don’t understand is how this has slipped from the headlines.  I’m an avid ESPN watcher, and I haven’t heard hide nor hair about the event in question.

No Rex, you wave with all FIVE fingers

Rex Ryan is a head coach in the National Football League; he leads a team and should be held to a higher standard.  For some reason people like this guy; and I’m not saying this because I’m a Pats fan.  He’s a defensive genius; I won’t knock the guy’s skills.  I just think he’s kind-of-a douche.  But when he runs his mouth, the media fawn over him so he gets a break.  I understand the democratic process that takes place in the league office; innocent until proven guilty, right?  But you were doing a live interview Rex…ON CAMERA!  The league dropped the ball on this one.  But why?  Because of the Alternate Bowl?  Was the commissioners office sooo concerned about distracting from David Garrard’s performance at the Pro-Bowl?  The NFL turned the annual pro-football All-Star Game into a joke, and then allowed Rex Ryan to piss off an entire fan-base without consequence.  Not cool NFL, not cool.

The Seven Step Post Post-Season Hangover Cure

  By Chris Speziale | 01/13/2010 - 1:52 pm | Musings
Leave a comment

The Pats performance made little Johnny Cry

There comes an inevitable time in every sports fan’s life when his or her team, the team that was supposed to play for the big one, puts up a big fat stinker. Cough, Patriots, Cough. It hurts– let’s not play around here. It’s a long off-season, and if you’re a Pats fan like me, you now have 8 months to stew about the sieve that is the offensive line. Brady was sacked 3 times, hit 6 more, and threw 3 interceptions. He saw pressure all day. They came out flatter than the last glass at the bottom of the pitcher; it was over by the end of the first quarter. The Pats have needs, but we’ll get to that a little later. Right now though, it’s time to mourn. Seven simple steps to help cure the Post Post-Season Hangover:

1. Alcohol – It sounds a little crazy to cure a hangover with alcohol, but at the conclusion of the game in which your team has lost in the playoffs, there will be an immediate need: beer. If you’re at home, crack a new one. If you’re out at a bar, immediately get the attention of the bartender and order another.
2. Change The Channel – When the game ends, make sure you change the channel as soon as possible. Some people take this a step farther and hit up the remote with just a few seconds left in a game. I have always been in the “You gotta watch to the end” camp, so I’m a ‘game over’ channel-changer. This is an important step; no one wants to hear those stupid broadcasters talk about your team blowing the game, or the records that have been snapped, or how long the off-season is, or who’ll be back next year, or if the dynasty is over, or if Belichick is losing his mystique, or…. I could continue, but I’m depressing the hell out of myself.
3. Look Ahead – There are other sports! Pitchers and catchers report February 23rd.
4. Facebook – In the modern sporting era there are a MILLION ways to reach out to other fans, but one of the most effective is Facebook. There will be the obligatory “I don’t know what happened, worst game ever” posts, and that’s okay. This will allow your fellow fans to grieve with you, without the interference of the mainstream media. Just remember: there’s no crying in baseball, or any other sport for that matter. Just be wary of the possible opposition taunt, and while it is rude, it does happen. If you’re lucky, they’ll give you some peace– as well they should, every fan’s been there. (Side Note: Quick thank you to Googs. I was expecting you to rag me pretty good after the Jets won and Pats lost. Thanks for letting me wallow for a bit.)
5. The DVD – This is crucial. When you return home from the bar, and you’re feeling down about your team or sports in general, you must pop a good sports movie in the DVD player. Personally, I’m watching Game 4 of the Sox/Yanks series in ’04. Nothing gets me in a better mood than seeing Dave Roberts steal that base. Fiction works too. May I suggest Rudy, Miracle, Hoosiers, Remember the Titans, For the Love of the Game, Field of Dreams, The Natural, Bull Durham, or if you’re really feeling crappy, Caddyshack. Settle in with some popcorn and your beverage of choice and let the silver screen bring back your fan mojo. Just avoid Fever Pitch at all costs.
6. The Next Day – You’re going to feel that itch, but I beg you not to scratch. Turn off the tube. You’ve made it through the day of demise– now you need to keep it going through day two. This is where a lot of people relapse and fall back into the Post Post-Season coma. It usually takes about three days before the average fan can watch a sports highlight show. Local news stations are pretty bad, but Sportscenter is the major culprit, especially on a slow sports day. They’ll start with the breakdown of all your teams’ screw-ups, and then hit you with the truly debilitating preview of your opponent’s next matchup.
7. And Finally – Did I mention, baseball starts in 6 weeks?

A Bowl Game a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

  By Chris Speziale | 12/17/2009 - 4:15 pm | Predictions
Leave a comment

When I was ten, I had a gambling problem.  It’s my dad’s fault, really.  He has worked for a big hospital in Boston for a whole bunch years now, and every year they would do a Bowl Poll.  It’s easy; you just pick the winner against the spread in every bowl game.  It was twenty bucks per entry, and every single year my father, brother and I would fill out our little scorecards and my dad would bring them into his office.  The twenty bucks came out of our own pockets, so there was a great matter of pride involved.  Here’s the problem: I was ten!  I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I don’t think my picks ever finished in the top ten.  But, that’s what I think of now every time the bowl season comes around.  This year the games kick off crazy early, with the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday the 19th.  Or course, the purpose of the bowl games is to crown a college football champion, and this year all games give way to Pasadena. The National Championship will pit Alabama against Texas.  Both teams are undefeated (along with Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. Cough, Cough), but due to the BCS system, this will be the defacto title game.  Here’s the rub: You can only watch so many of these games before your head explodes.  So which ones should you keep an eye on?  I’ll give you a game a day, and highlight a couple that I think you shouldn’t miss.

December 19th 8PM (ESPN), St. Petersburg Bowl – Rutgers vs. Central Florida, this could be Rutgers last game in the Big East, they’re looking to win big to prove to the Big 10 bigwigs that they can handle the pressure’s of a tougher schedule.

December 20th 8:30PM (ESPN), R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee, this is the only game on the 20th….that’s all I have to say about that.

December 22nd 8PM (ESPN), MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – You want points?  Check this out: BYU vs. Oregon St.  The Cougars average a shade under 35 points per game, and the Beavers score 32 a game.  This will be an offensive crazyfest!  That’s right, I just coined a new term.  These two teams light up the score board, but they get it done using two different philosophies.  Oregon State will use a mixed attack and rely on J. Rodgers. Who is J. Rodgers you ask?  It’s TWO guys, James and Jacquizz Rodgers.  James is the number one receiver for the Beavers, who has caught 87 balls for over a thousand yards and 9 TD’s.  Jacquizz is the number one running back who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and has scored 20 touchdowns.  On the other side, BYU’s aerial attacked is one of the best in the country. Quarterback Max Hall has thrown for over 3,300 yards and has 30 touchdowns this year.  Hall has a ton of weapons to work with; nine of his receivers have caught more than 15 balls this year.  Oregon State is favored by 2.5 points in this game, and that’s a no-brainer.  Usually in a game like this, I would highlight the defense; whichever defense makes a stand will win the contest.  But, this game comes down to conferences.  Oregon State plays in the supremely competitive Pac 10 and BYU plays in the much weaker Mountain West Conference.  For that reason I’m taking Oregon State (-2.5).

December 23rd 8PM (ESPN), San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Utah vs. Cal, it’s the only game on this date, but it’s going to be a good one.  Another Mountain West team trying to prove itself, and Cal will be a tough test.

December 24th 8PM (ESPN), Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Nevada vs. SMU, only game…check it.

December 26th 8PM (ESPN), Emerald Bowl – USC was picked by many in the preseason to play for a national title, but Pete Carroll picked a freshmen to quarterback the team, and he has yet to prove himself.  In this game, that freshman, will take on the Eagles of Boston College.  BC finished it’s season 8-4, with a 5-3 tally in conference.  This is only the fourth year the Eagles have played in the ACC, and they are proving they can play with the big boys.  They racked up victories against Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina State, and Maryland in conference.  Conversely, USC’s season wasn’t just disappointing but truly devastating.  The Trojans finished 6th in the Pac-10 after Oregon, and Oregon State emerged, and took the reins in what was supposed to be USC’s conference.  But when you put all of that aside, the Eagles have a stout defense, and that makes this game a must watch.  USC is a flashy team, they score points at will, and have a ton of weapons.  But, BC’s run defense has held opponents to 3 yards per carry in its twelve games, and has allowed only 19 points per game.  The Trojans are favored by a touchdown in this game, but that’s too much.  While USC wins, the Eagles beat the spread, in what will be on of the best games of the bowl season.

December 27th 8:30PM (ESPN), Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson, see C.J. Spiller take out his aggression on the Wildcats.  Seriously, why wasn’t this guy invited to the Heisman presentation?

December 28th 5PM (ESPN), AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Texas A&M vs. Georgia, winning one for the puppy.  The Georgia mascot has passed away.  Look for the Bulldogs to come out flying to honor the late pup.

December 29th 8PM (ESPN), Champs Sports Bowl – Miami vs. Wisconsin, this should be entertaining.  Two great defenses, but give the advantage to Miami. This game is being played in Florida.

December 30th 8PM (ESPN), Pacific Life Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona, last chance to see Ndamukong Suh as a college player.  He’ll be a top ten next April for sure.

December 31st 2PM (CBS), Brut Sun Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Stanford, I love, love, love Toby Gerhart.  I think he has the potential to be a pro-bowl caliber fullback or tight end in the NFL.

January 1st 8PM (FOX), Allstate Sugar Bowl – This is the bizarro National Title Game.  It was tough to pick a game from New Years Day; if you are in it for the long haul make sure you check out the Rose Bowl at 4:30 before this one.  Oregon vs. Ohio State will be a classic, but it’s no Sugar Bowl.  I detailed in an earlier column that Cincinnati had a shot to play against either Alabama or Florida for the National Title if Texas lost any game to close the season.  They didn’t, but Cincy still gets an opportunity to take down one-loss Florida in the Sugar Bowl.  Not a lot of people are giving the Bearcats a chance in this one, but I think any team that can score like Tony Pike and the boys has a shot.  Cincinnati’s offense averages 40 a game, and while Florida does have a strong defense, this game will probably be a shoot out.  It’s in a controlled environment that will be incredibly loud, and the Bearcats are angry.  Brian Kelly fled the team for a more lucrative, high profile position at Notre Dame.  The Bearcat players have called out their old coach, and are promising a competitive game against Florida.  The odds makers in Las Vegas are giving Cincy 10.5 points in this one, which is absolutely crazy.  Not only do I think they make the spread, but they will beat the Gators in New Orleans 48-45.  Alabama exposed the Gators weakness in the SEC Championship game; running screens and hitting the TE over the middle.  Cincy has one of the best weapons to exploit that weakness. Mardy Gilyard is one of the best, and biggest wide receivers in the game; they’ll use him on quick outs to the sideline and let him run people over.  Look for him to have a big game in what will most definitely be a fantastic upset in college football.

January 2nd 2PM (ESPN), PapaJohns.com Bowl – South Carolina vs. UConn, the Huskies are out-matched in this one, but UConn coach Randy Edsall was thrust into the national spotlight when Notre Dame came knocking.  Brian Kelly ended up with the job, but Edsall now has something to prove.  Can he out-coach Steve Spurrier in this bowl game, and stick it to the Irish? Look out.

January 4th 8PM (FOX), Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs. TCU, this is another battle of undefeated teams.  Not sure what to say about it.  Two great teams that don’t get enough respect looking to knock each other around.

January 5th 8PM (FOX), FedEx Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs. Iowa, tops in the ACC takes on second place in the Big Ten.  This will be a slow, methodical, defense oriented game.  But, it’s the only one on the fifth, so enjoy.

January 6th 7PM (ESPN), GMAC Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Troy, I have no idea how this game made it so far into the bowl slate.

January 7th 8PM (ABC), BCS National Championship Game – I could try and handicap this one, but really I have NO clue who wins.  Both of these teams deserve a shot to play for the title and I think it will be a classic game.  The Tide will use Heisman winner Mark Ingram to run the Longhorns into the ground, but Texas has some guy named Colt McCoy.  The Texas quarterback isn’t having the greatest of seasons, but he’s done enough to get his team back to the title game.  A lot of the media pundits are picking Alabama to win this one because Texas hasn’t blown people away this year, but that’s because the Longhorn defense is much improved.  I think this is going to be a close one, and I’ve always been told that if you’re on the fence you should go with the points, so I’m taking Texas (+4) to beat the spread.  The winner of the game, however, I could never predict.

Screw Egg Nog! Just give me the Pats vs. the Saints

  By Chris Speziale | 11/25/2009 - 12:04 am | Musings
1 Comment

I know it’s only Wednesday, but I cannot wait until next Monday night.  Yeah, you’ve got an awesome holiday on Thursday.  You’ve got the crazy holiday shopping season kicking off on Friday. And most importantly, you’ve got Egg Nog hitting the shelves!  But Monday you’ve got the game of the year in the NFL, and I am pumped.  On ESPN’s Monday Night Football the Patriots will visit the Saints in New Orleans.  The Saints come into the game undefeated and looking to assert themselves as a clear Superbowl favorite.  The Patriots could conceivably be coming into this game with only one loss, but they lost a coin flip in Denver and handed the Colts the game in week 10 (No, we’re not going to talk about 4th and 2.  I operate like the Pats, so we’re moving on).   This is an intriguing match-up for a lot of reasons.  Both of these teams have fantastic offenses; the Saints and the Pats rank one and two in passing.  On the defensive side of the ball you have two highly underrated D’s.  So what do you watch for?

Let’s start with the Patriots offense against the Saints D.  The Patriots are coming off a highly emotional win over the Jets at Gillette Stadium.  They wanted to prove to the rest of the league that there would be no lingering effects from the loss to Indy, and they did just that.  The offense hummed, with Wes Welker catching 15 balls for a ridiculous 192 yards and the also effective Laurence Maroney, who rushed for 77 yards and two scores.  The Pats were successful against the Jets because they spread the field and exploited the mis-matches in the secondary.  This week Brady won’t have that luxury; the Saints have picked off opposing quarterbacks a league leading 20 times.  And just to add insult to non-injury, Darren Sharper will most likely be back to full strength and playing quarterback for the Saints defense. That said, the key for the Patriots is going to be the running game.  The Saints have allowed an average of 115 rushing yards per game and have let opposing running backs into the endzone 12 times this year. The Patriots also hope to get Sammy Morris back from injury this week, giving them a three-headed attack.  Look for Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to get carries on 1st and 2nd downs and Morris to come in on 3rd and short situations and around the goal line.  The Saints relentlessly pressure the quarterback, and that will be no different against a banged up Patriot offensive line, so look for Welker to be a prime target.  The Patriots will run screens early and often to keep the Saints pass rushers honest.

On the other side you’ve got Drew Brees leading a crazy good offense.  The key here is really simple.  The Patriots secondary is super young and super small.  Brees is going to look deep for Robert Meacham and Marques Colston to try and beat the Patriots rookies Darius Butler and Patrick Chung.  Those two receivers are both 6’2” or taller.  The Patriot secondary doesn’t have anyone over 6’1” and they average a little more than 5’11”.  This could be a huge problem for the Patriots.  Brees has been deadly accurate this year.  He’s got a 68% completion percentage and has a passer rating of 124 on throws of 20 or more yards.  He’ll use that accuracy to feed the ball to those tall receivers up high, where only they can catch the ball. For the Pats, getting healthy will be the key: Ty Warren is back from injury and played well against the Jets, Jerod Mayo has been getting consistently better with each passing week, and Tully Banta-Cain has been battling a rib injury but appears to be coming out of it.  Most likely we’ll see the linebackers dropping into coverage to help protect against Brees’ high-powered arm.  This again provides an opportunity for the running game to star in this match-up.  Much was made in the off-season about Pierre Thomas emerging as the star running back in New Orleans, but he has been anything but spectacular so far.  He has just under 600 yards on the ground and 5 rushing touchdowns.  Belichick will most likely use four down linemen to combat the run game and perhaps gamble on a couple of passing downs by shooting the linebackers into the gaps.

Then there’s the Superdome.  Truly there isn’t a better homefield advantage in the NFL than the Saints have in the Superdome.  In the last two years, the Saints have gone 11-2 in their building.  There will be no distractions on Monday night for “Who Dat” nation.  The stadium will be filled, and the fans will be incredibly loud.  Everyone in New Orleans wants respect, and they feel like they can get it with a win against the Patriots.  The Saints haven’t played a big game since week 6, when they beat the then undefeated New York Giants.  However, the Patriots seem to be at the center of the media frenzy every week. And they’re hoping to ride this emotional wave into New Orleans and derail the dream season these Saints have put together.

The implications of this game are huge.  I personally believe that whichever team wins will represent its conference in the Superbowl.  If the Patriots can win on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe they can win anywhere.  And they might have to.  If the Colts continue to dominate, we’ll surely see a Patriots/Colts playoff game in Indy.  If the Saints can pull this one out, it proves that they can play with and beat anyone at anytime.  In the end, it’s all going to come down to which team can make the big play on defense, and which of these two incredible QB’s can make the fewest mistakes. Regardless of the outcome, we’re about to see one of the great match-ups in the league this season.  I know I’ll be glued to the TV.  You should be too.