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Trade Bait

  By Chris Speziale | 07/19/2011 - 11:58 am | Musings
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We knew they'd hit, but could the Sox starters hold it down?

The sights, and sounds, and smells of summer are in full swing, but it feels like Christmas!  Christmas in July, that is.  The Major League Baseball non-waiver trading deadline is under two weeks away, and it’s no secret that July 31st is one of my favorite days of the year.  It takes a lot to win a World Series Championship, and most teams don’t have all the pieces right at the outset.  The trading deadline allows the major players in the league to go out and get those missing pieces that they hope will put them over the top.  The coverage is always completely ridiculous, and now with most of the “insiders” using Twitter, this season promises to be even more in your face.  It’s exciting to follow along to see where the pieces land, which is why it’s so hard for me to say that the Sox need to stand pat.  Momentum can swing in a huge way after this day has come and gone, but as we approach this yearly shift in baseball, a warning: don’t sell the farm.

 

The Red Sox are in first place in the A.L. East, and show no signs of slowing down over the last three months of the season.  There are a number of positions that are producing at numbers that don’t quite live up to expectations, but we’re alright.  With a one game lead and 68 games to play in the season, the Red Sox will pick up major pieces without having to trade for anyone.  If you run down the roster, there are two positions that you could highlight as trouble spots for the Sox as they head down the stretch—starting-pitching and right field.

 

As we entered the season, the offense was supposed to be monstrous, and it has been.  So why mess?  Yes, JD Drew has been lackluster at best in right, but with Josh Reddick knocking the cover off the ball, we’ve got a nice platoon out there in right. The two big guns on the trade market, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Ludwick, wouldn’t provide enough of an upgrade to warrant a farm system fire sale, and there will surely be a piece that will pass through waivers later in the summer that Boston could use to spell Drew and Reddick at the 9thposition.  The Sox have scored more runs, have more extra base hits, and have the highest batting average in the majors.  They are who we thought they were, so let’s leave them be.  It’s the starting rotation that had all the question marks back in March.

 

Is Josh Beckett due for a comeback?  Which Clay Buchholz will we see to start the season?  Do Dice-K and Wakefield have anything left in the tank?  And finally, was the worst free agent pitching contract in Red Sox history signed by John Lackey?  Now that we’ve gone through two-thirds of the season, we can answer a number of those questions.  Yes, Beckett was due for a comeback, and he has been tremendous.  Buchholz isn’t quite as good as his break-out 2010 campaign may have shown, but when healthy, he may be the best number three starter in the league.  Dice-K is done, and Wakefield is spitting straight in the face of father time.  And yes, John Lackey is just plain terrible.  All of that said—the Red Sox don’t need to go out and get a starting pitcher.

 

When Lester and Buchholz come back from the DL, and it is my personal opinion that we shouldn’t see either of them back in the bigs for at least a month, it will be like they went out and got a true number one and a true number three.  Let’s not forget here people, Boston is in first place in the toughest division in the league.  So Theo, if you’re reading, give those guys some time to get themselves right, trust the team you have, and don’t mortgage the farm to get a starting arm come the deadline.

Yooouuuuu-ouch

  By Chris Speziale | 06/22/2011 - 12:50 pm | Musings
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Kevin Youkilis is too important to the Boston Red Sox to be playing through pain in June.

Maybe I’m crazy.  Maybe I’m completely and totally out of my gourd.  Maybe I’m so wrong that it makes “The Decision” look like a good idea, but isn’t Kevin Youkilis important to the Boston Red Sox?  This seems like an almost redundant question, doesn’t it?  But if that’s truly the case, why is he being handled this way?

 

Youk has been playing through some pretty severe pain over the last ten days, as he contends with an ankle sprain of unknown severity.  For some unclear reason, Terry Francona and the Sox bigwigs have been trotting him out to play third base in meaningless early June games.  It was most evident in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers last week.  The Red Sox All-Star hit a chopper up the first base line and as he started toward the base, he clearly pulled up and grimaced in pain.  The following half inning, and every inning since, Youk has been out in the field playing a very difficult position that requires agility and a quickness on your feet that he clearly doesn’t have at the moment.

 

To his credit, and in form with his true competitive nature, he hasn’t let the ankle get the better of him. And perhaps that’s the reason that Francona has left him in games.  But it just doesn’t make sense to have your clean-up hitter playing through pain in June!  Let Youk sit for a couple games, and give one of the two Sox corner infield prospects a shot.  Better yet, let BOTH of them have a chance.

 

Drew Sutton has performed more than admirably in his time with the big club, hitting .314 while slugging .514 and committing only a single error in 17 games.  Then there’s Yamaico Navarro, who’s currently sitting on a .925 OPS in Pawtucket while playing the hot corner for the Sox.

 

Here’s my thought: Put Youk on the 15-day DL and call up Navarro.  Insert Navarro against lefties, and Sutton against righties.  The minor leaguer is hitting over .320 against southpaws this season, while Sutton is over .340 against righties.  Hello!  This thing on?  Why risk further injury to one of your most important players, when you have two completely capable backups who could clearly benefit from playing time on the big league level?

 

I understand the argument that Youk is an integral part of the Red Sox lineup, and that he’s finally catching his stride after an excruciatingly slow start, but let me leave you with a couple more numbers to make my case.  The 2010 Red Sox were 60-44 with Kevin Youkilis in the lineup, and 29-29 without him.  The 2011 version will need to play better than .500 ball if they hope to stay ahead of a very talented Yankee team and a very resilient Tampa team.  Can Theo and Tito really risk losing this guy?  I say no, hot hitter or not.

The Definition of Class

  By Chris Speziale | 06/03/2010 - 6:53 pm | Musings
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It was clear to viewers that Joyce blew the call. What no one expected were the reactions that followed the 28 out perfecto.

Watching Armando Galarraga deliver the lineup card to Jim Joyce before today’s game was one of the classiest things I have EVER seen in sports.  In case you missed it…like I did…Armando Galarraga was one out away from throwing the 3rd perfect game in less than a month last night.  Jason Donald hit a weak grounder up the first base line, which pulled Miguel Cabrera off the bag.  Galarraga covered the base and caught the flip from Cabrera a step and a half ahead of the runner.  Cabrera’s arms went up to celebrate, Galarraga’s arms went up to celebrate, and so did the arms of first base umpire Jim Joyce…to signal the runner safe.  Joyce claims that when he made the call, he thought it was correct. It was really close, but with instant replay you can see that the runner was out. If you watch the replay you can see Donald clutching his helmet after the safe call.  Even he knew he was out, and so did the 17,738 fans in attendance.

 

The human element is a huge part of baseball, and I have to give props to the mummy commissioner of MLB.  Selig came out today and said that he wasn’t going to overturn the call to give Galarraga the perfecto.  And this is the right call.  If we give the power of the official scorer to the Commissioner’s Office, we’re opening up Pandora’s box.  Every fan, player, manager and sports agent will be busting down Selig’s door to change things.  No good.  What Selig has done is say that he’ll review the instant replay rules, and that is a big win for baseball.  I said that human error is a part of the game–yes, but I like giving the umpires the opportunity to fix those mistakes during the course of a game.  Do I know who would be in charge of replay, or what would qualify as a reviewable play?  No.  Do I know if it would slow the pace of play?  No.  What I do know is that if they can get this figured out, mistakes like the one that cost Armando his perfect game would be a thing of the past.  Good on yah, Selig.

 

Jim Leyland absolutely laid into Joyce after the game ended, not after the play happened.  Of course, he came out and argued, but he waited until Galarraga recorded the 28th out of the game to really let him have it.  And he had every right to.  He was defending his player and trying to protect his place in history.  But I like that he kept his cool during the game and waited until it was over to truly voice his displeasure.  He sent a good message to his team, and in his post-game interview, he sent an even better message to the fans.  Leyland asked Tiger fans not to boo Joyce before the next game, saying that “today’s a day for Detroit to be a class act…today is a day to cheer the integrity of an umpire.”  Mr. Leyland, you sir are classy.

 

And speaking about the integrity of an umpire–how bout Jim Joyce.  I mentioned earlier that Joyce thought he had made the right call on the field, and I like that.  You need to stand by your decisions.  What I like even more was that he had the courage to watch the play after the game was over and to admit that he made a mistake.  Of course he didn’t want to blow the call.  But he did, and he owned it.  He took history away from a young player, and he could not feel worse about it.  The man was an emotional mess.  He takes pride in what he does, and he’s been praised by players and managers alike for his fair and even calls.  Before his post-game interview, he went so far as to search Galarraga out and personally apologize.  And I know that apologies won’t give the Tigers’ starter his gem back, but Joyce could have huffed and puffed about how it was his call to make and that that is how the game is played.  But he didn’t.  Jim Joyce, you are classy indeed.

 

Then you have Galarraga–I don’t think anyone could have handled this situation better than he has.  When the play happened he should have flipped.  I would have flipped.  I think any other player would have flipped.  But he didn’t, he sort of wryly smiled and walked back to the mound.  He kept his composure and finished off Trevor Crowe with five more pitches, as Donald took second and third on defensive indifference.  In all of his post-game interviews he didn’t put blame on Joyce, he kept stating that what happened happened and there is no changing it.  Today, Jim Joyce got home plate as his assignment in Detroit, and Galarraga was the one exchanging lineup cards with the umpiring crew and Cleveland’s skipper.  As Armando shook his hand, Joyce started to tear up.  The crowd cheered as he came out of the dugout, and he tipped his cap.  He just wants to move on.  Was he upset?  Of course he was, but he held no ill will, and he showed that in a world where players lie, cheat, and steal to get themselves to the top, there is still just a little bit of integrity left.  And that makes him the classiest of all.

Perspective on Papi

  By Chris Speziale | 05/12/2010 - 11:55 am | Musings
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I don't care how this thing ends. This will be how I remember David Ortiz.

Let me start by saying this: there is no bigger David Ortiz fan than this guy right here. But that aside, it’s time to let the idea of Big Papi go. The Red Sox slugger is hitting .185 with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI in 23 games. What I find interesting is that his power numbers really aren’t that bad. He’s on pace to hit 26 homers and drive in 76 runs. But he just doesn’t look that same. He’s struck out over 30% of the time, he’s hitting .207 with runners in scoring position, and his slugging percentage is down more than 130 points from his career average. This is a tough thing for Boston fans to stomach. Not only did he help carry our team to two World Series Championships, but he was a great character guy. The city loved him–Papi was an icon. Like a big, friendly, home run hitting teddy bear. Red Sox fans waited 86 years for those titles, and if we were without Ortiz, we’d still be waiting. He had more clutch hits than I could count. If the game was on the line, in the late innings, he was the guy you wanted at the plate. He’s got 12 walk-off homers, and 20 walk-off hits in his career. He won the Silver Slugger in 4 consecutive years, from 2004-2007. But no award means more to Papi, or Red Sox fans, than his 2004 ALCS MVP Award.

David Ortiz could not be stopped in October 2004. In the three game ALDS sweep of the Angels, he hit .545 and had a ridiculous 1.688 OPS (OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage, for those who don’t know). That was truly out of control, but it would pale in comparison to what he was about to do to the Yankees. In the 7 game series he hit .387, with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI. He also scored 6 runs (to lead the team), and had an OPS a click under 1.200. And now you’re saying. “Hey! Those numbers are worse than his ALDS numbers!” Yah, they are. But they don’t take into account the truly remarkable events of games 4 and 5 against New York. Well past midnight, the morning of October 18th, less that 20 hours before game 5 was set to begin, Papi strolled into the batters box. On a 2-1 count, he deposited a Paul Quantrill fastball into the visitor’s bullpen, giving Boston a 6-4 12 inning win.  The Sox were alive in the series, and David Ortiz wasn’t done. The next night, the Red Sox and Yankees played the longest game in ALCS history. It went 14 innings, and lasted nearly 6 hours. At the end though it was all Papi, all over again. With two out, and two on, Papi looped an Esteban Loaiza offering into centerfield, bringing home Johnny Damon with the winning run. He fouled off 6 pitches before ending the game. If you watch the video of those two games, a hush comes over the crowd when he steps to the plate. I can’t remember another player in my time that had that effect on the crowd.  The man will be immortal in Boston.  And I think we need a bronze Papi outside Fenway to greet the crowds before they enter the park.  That is what makes this so hard.

What’s getting lost, is the business. The Red Sox are a multi-million dollar franchise, and they don’t succeed in business without winning. Right now, with Papi in the lineup, the winning thing is what’s alluding us, and something has to change.  But what can be done?  I see two options.

1. You send him down -call me crazy, but this seems like the most logical thing to do.  Let’s call it back spasms.  You put him on the 15 day DL, give him a chance to get his head in order, and then you start him on a rehab assignment.  Perhaps Big Paps is just not capable of performing at a high level for a full season any more.  Last year, it took him until June to start clicking a the plate.  Maybe he just needs the extra time, and a stint with Pawtucket or Portland would allow him to have that time.  Plus, it would boost ticket sales for the Sox minor league teams. Win-win.

2. You trade him -this one would hurt a little bit, because he would almost undoubtedly end up with an American League team.  He has no defensive value, and there are a couple of teams in the A.L. that could certainly use his services.  Kansas City, LA, Toronto, and Cleveland could all use help at the hitter only position.  Here’s what I’m thinking: we swing him to Cleveland or LA for a couple of lesser known prospects that we can then package with Mike Lowell and a pitcher like Michael Bowden for Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego.  Of course, this is all contingent on San Diego falling out of the N.L. West race.  Which, I’m saying right now, you can bank on.  L.A. is starting to come on, and San Fran can out-pitch just about anyone in the National League.

There is one other thing that the Red Sox could do. Release him.  BUT, this must be the absolute last resort.  If everything else fails, you just gotta let him go.  It will be a dark, dark day for Boston sports, but you have to win.  This is not a market where you can sit back on your laurels, and wait for things to turn around. Enter Theo Epstein.  If there is any one person that is capable of making the hard decision, it’s Theo.  A large part of this column was about the 2004 Red Sox World Series run.  And I’m assuming if you’re a Sox fan, you know that they only way we got there was with the defensive help of Orlando Cabrera.  Cabrera, of course, arrived earlier in the season when Theo traded fan favorite, and Red Sox great, Nomar Garciaparra.  That wasn’t an easy decision either.  It will be interesting to see how Theo reacts to the current Ortiz situation;  Ortiz was one of his first acquisitions as general manager.  We must never forget what Papi helped bring back to Boston, but my hope is that Theo doesn’t play the nostalgia game.  If he does, it could mean the end of the 2010 Red Sox.

The Seven Step Post Post-Season Hangover Cure

  By Chris Speziale | 01/13/2010 - 1:52 pm | Musings
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The Pats performance made little Johnny Cry

There comes an inevitable time in every sports fan’s life when his or her team, the team that was supposed to play for the big one, puts up a big fat stinker. Cough, Patriots, Cough. It hurts– let’s not play around here. It’s a long off-season, and if you’re a Pats fan like me, you now have 8 months to stew about the sieve that is the offensive line. Brady was sacked 3 times, hit 6 more, and threw 3 interceptions. He saw pressure all day. They came out flatter than the last glass at the bottom of the pitcher; it was over by the end of the first quarter. The Pats have needs, but we’ll get to that a little later. Right now though, it’s time to mourn. Seven simple steps to help cure the Post Post-Season Hangover:

1. Alcohol – It sounds a little crazy to cure a hangover with alcohol, but at the conclusion of the game in which your team has lost in the playoffs, there will be an immediate need: beer. If you’re at home, crack a new one. If you’re out at a bar, immediately get the attention of the bartender and order another.
2. Change The Channel – When the game ends, make sure you change the channel as soon as possible. Some people take this a step farther and hit up the remote with just a few seconds left in a game. I have always been in the “You gotta watch to the end” camp, so I’m a ‘game over’ channel-changer. This is an important step; no one wants to hear those stupid broadcasters talk about your team blowing the game, or the records that have been snapped, or how long the off-season is, or who’ll be back next year, or if the dynasty is over, or if Belichick is losing his mystique, or…. I could continue, but I’m depressing the hell out of myself.
3. Look Ahead – There are other sports! Pitchers and catchers report February 23rd.
4. Facebook – In the modern sporting era there are a MILLION ways to reach out to other fans, but one of the most effective is Facebook. There will be the obligatory “I don’t know what happened, worst game ever” posts, and that’s okay. This will allow your fellow fans to grieve with you, without the interference of the mainstream media. Just remember: there’s no crying in baseball, or any other sport for that matter. Just be wary of the possible opposition taunt, and while it is rude, it does happen. If you’re lucky, they’ll give you some peace– as well they should, every fan’s been there. (Side Note: Quick thank you to Googs. I was expecting you to rag me pretty good after the Jets won and Pats lost. Thanks for letting me wallow for a bit.)
5. The DVD – This is crucial. When you return home from the bar, and you’re feeling down about your team or sports in general, you must pop a good sports movie in the DVD player. Personally, I’m watching Game 4 of the Sox/Yanks series in ’04. Nothing gets me in a better mood than seeing Dave Roberts steal that base. Fiction works too. May I suggest Rudy, Miracle, Hoosiers, Remember the Titans, For the Love of the Game, Field of Dreams, The Natural, Bull Durham, or if you’re really feeling crappy, Caddyshack. Settle in with some popcorn and your beverage of choice and let the silver screen bring back your fan mojo. Just avoid Fever Pitch at all costs.
6. The Next Day – You’re going to feel that itch, but I beg you not to scratch. Turn off the tube. You’ve made it through the day of demise– now you need to keep it going through day two. This is where a lot of people relapse and fall back into the Post Post-Season coma. It usually takes about three days before the average fan can watch a sports highlight show. Local news stations are pretty bad, but Sportscenter is the major culprit, especially on a slow sports day. They’ll start with the breakdown of all your teams’ screw-ups, and then hit you with the truly debilitating preview of your opponent’s next matchup.
7. And Finally – Did I mention, baseball starts in 6 weeks?

Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

  By Chris Speziale | 12/11/2009 - 5:30 pm | Musings
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I promised you all that there would be a post every night from Indianapolis, and well…I lied.  I was a little busy trying to find a job!  The interesting this was, there really wasn’t that much going on in Indy this week.  If you’d like a list of EVERY single transaction from the last four days, you should click HERE.  I’ve always been a big fan of ESPN.com, and they did a great job keeping on top of everything, including staff hiring’s and front office stuff.  We could certainly break down every single deal that went down, but we’d be here forever.  So let’s just talk about the three biggest trades or signings that came out of the Winter Meetings this week.

Chone Figgins signs with Seattle – This was a big deal.  It was the first major signing of the off-season, and it came from the Mariners.  This was a signal; the Mariners were going to sprint out of the gate this off-season, and they wanted to spend.  Seattle wasn’t going to take no for an answer, and this manifested itself pretty quickly; the Mariners have now been linked to Jason Bay and John Lackey.  If they decide to break the bank and sign all three of those guys, they will be a force in the AL West next season.  The Mariners are also still involved in talks with Adrian Beltre. This would mean that Figgins could play a different position, as Beltre is the incumbent third-basemen; Figgins would be an upgrade over Michael Saunders in left.  Ichiro is also interested in this signing because he stands to lose his spot in the leadoff position.  It’s pretty unlikely, but possible.  They will probably end up hitting 1-2 or 9-1 with Figgins in the 2 or 9 spot. My question: Do you really want to spend $36 Million on your number 9 hitter?

Curtis Granderson is traded to the Yankees – You should always expect the Yankees to make big news in the off-season, and they certainly didn’t disappoint this year. Of the four days in Indy, this deal caused the most stir and was the only headline maker.  Let’s see if I can put this in print so that it can be understood: The Tigers trade OF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for OF Austin Jackson and LHP Phil Coke.  Detroit also sent RHP Edwin Jackson to the Diamond Backs in exchange for LHP Max Scherzer and RHP Dan Schlereth.  To finalize the deal, New York sent RHP Ian Kennedy to the D-Backs.  This was a good trade for everyone involved, including the players.  Granderson is a great clubhouse guy, and New York fans will love his work ethic. Now the Yanks can focus on bringing back Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui to play DH, and they’re good to go.  The D-Backs get two great young arms out of this deal as well.  Edwin Jackson should thrive in the NL West, thanks to the big ballparks, and the AAAA National League hitters.  Having said that, I think the Tigers are the clear cut winners on this deal.  They get they flame throwing lefty from Arizona, Max Scherzer and one of the best outfield prospects in all of baseball.  I think most importantly, the Tigers got a lot younger, AND received four players!  Even if only two of these guys become everyday players the Tigers win, and it’s very possible that two OR three of them could be on the 40 man roster when the season starts next April.

The Rangers big week – I wrote last week that I was surprised that the Rangers stayed in the playoff hunt so late into the season, and I am equally surprised by the moves they made at the meetings.  Surprised, and extremely impressed.  The Rangers traded RHP Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for RHP Chris Ray and LHP Ben Snyder.  Ray will be an excellent addition to the Rangers bullpen, and will most set-up for Frank Francisco.  Snyder is probably a year or two away from pitching in the big leagues, but his first season in the minors was a great success.  Out of the bullpen last year, he pitched 97 innings, struck out 86, and had a 2.88 ERA.  The Rangers also added RHP Rich Harden to the rotation, and this could turn out to be the signing of the year.  Harden is injury prone, and he is pulling in seven and a half million bucks next season.  But, when healthy, there is no one better.  In his career he’s averaged more than a strikeout per inning, while only allowing two walks per nine.  Harden has also come out in the past two days stating that he’d like to pitch two hundred innings this year for the Rangers, which would be a career high.  What’s lost in all of this is the grudge factor.  The A’s traded Harden to the Cubs before the trade deadline in 2008, and you have to believe that he wants to stick it to his new division rival, Oakland.  Texas is a tough place to pitch, but Harden has a point to prove and I think he could be one of the surprise stories of 2010.

So New York, Detroit, Arizona, Texas and Seattle all had good weeks.  And there will be a LOT more teams to add to that list before baseball Spring Training starts, and we’ll have all the news and analysis right here at ChrisSpez.com.  Enjoy!

National League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/03/2009 - 12:32 pm | Predictions
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As promised, here is the next installment in the Hot Stove saga.  Feels like Twilight, doesn’t it!? Ick.  Anyway, please feel free to give this a read, and let me know what you think.  And remember to check back starting next Monday night for analysis from the Winter Meetings.  I’ll break-down the deals of the day, and at some point I’d like to do a running blog, but we’ll just have to wait and see if I can work that out.  Without further ado:

East

New York – We start our trip around the National League with the Mets.  New York has a lot of players hitting free agency, including Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, but those aren’t the major issues facing Los Mets.  The biggest hole is in left field where Gary Sheffield roamed for New York when he wasn’t injured last season.  The Mets will most definitely be in the Holliday and Bay sweepstakes and will probably make a more serious run at Holliday.  Holliday, as one of my readers pointed out, hits better in the National League than the American.  There have also been rumors circling that the Mets are looking to trade Luis Castillo.  A possible landing spot for him would be the Dodgers, who lose Orlando Hudson this off-season.  If they can’t land one of the big free agents look for them to make a move with L.A. for one of their young outfielders.

Florida – The Marlins are in pretty good shape going into the 2010 season.  They have last years Rookie of the Year in left, and a stable of good young arms to rival any team in the league.  They traded away Jeremy Hermida to Boston, which probably means that they’re comfortable with Cody Ross in right. So what are they going to be doing in the coming months?  Perhaps shopping for a corner infielder?  They are losing Nick Johnson and will be looking for some OBP to replace him.  I see Kevin Millar as a good fit here.  We know the Marlins budget won’t allow them to offer a large contract, and Millar won’t be looking for big bucks at age 38.  He is a good clubhouse guy and a great leader.  And that, is something the Marlins covet.

Atlanta – I think the Braves this winter are going to focus on in house matters.  Martin Prado is due for an extension, and they have two big names hitting free agency that they are going to try and lock up.  Adam LaRoche is one of them, and Rafael Soriano is the other.  They signed Billy Wagner to close which signals the end of the Mike Gonzalez experiment.  Gonzalez was good, but allowed a lot of runners to reach base; it appears that Wagner did enough in his short stint with Boston last year to convince the Atlanta brass that he could handle the job.  The Braves may also take a look at some of the under the radar corner outfielders to replace Garret Anderson, like Austin Kearns or Xavier Nady.

Philadelphia – The Phillies have already been busy this off-season.  They signed Brian Schnieder right out from under the Mets noses, which strengthens an already steady stable of backstops for the Phillies.  If the N.L. Champs are going to make a splash in free agency it will be looking for bullpen help.  Everyone knows that Charlie Manuel had trouble picking his closer during the playoffs this past year and I think that will be Philadelphia’s top priority.  They’ll take a look at Mike Gonzalez, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano.  The interesting thing about this list is that almost all of these guys played for division rivals last year, which means that those teams may try and drive up the price.  That’s why I think Valverde is their guy.

Washington – My advice to Ted Lerner and Stan Kasten?  Break the bank!  I had the pleasure of seeing RFK Stadium this summer and have to say, it is a fantastic place to watch baseball…if your team doesn’t suck.  The Nationals only need three pieces to contend.  Yes, yes I know that’s actually a lot of pieces, BUT it’s doable.  They need a power hitting outfielder, a closer, and a starter.  Simple: Rick Ankiel, Kevin Gregg, and Ardolis Chapman.  Ankiel and Gregg will come relatively cheaply; they are young-ish and they both have something to prove.  If Chapman is as good as they say he is, and they’re saying he’s reeeeeeeal good, he could be the number one starter on that staff for the next 10 years.  Now put Strasberg in the number two spot, with Lannan and Zimmerman at three and four!  Chapman is an enigma, and because he’d provoke curiosity, he’d put butts in the seats. That’s what the Nationals need right now; they have no revenue coming in from ticket sales or merchandising.  They could sign these three guys for a combined cost of 14 million a season and they only lose one draft pick.  It’s a no brainer; I should be the Nationals’ GM.

Central

Milwaukee – The Brewers stand to lose a lot of pieces this off-season, if they don’t come to terms with their slew of free agents.  Most notably would be Jason Kendall; the Milwaukee catcher would be sorely missed if he decides to sign elsewhere.  The Brewers saw the emergence of two young players last year and have the makings of a team that could be good for a long time. To compete next year, however, they will probably go after some pitching help; someone to help in the rotation would be the key.  For this team I like Erik Bedard or Kelvim Escobar – two guys that are coming off injury, looking to prove themselves, make sense for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh – I just…well, I really have no idea what to say about the Pirates.  They don’t have any free agent holes to fill, which is nice.  And they have a young team, which is nice.  But the Pirates seem to be constantly in a state of rebuilding, and I think that until they pull above .500 for a full season we’ll see Pittsburgh play out the first half of the season, and then sell off every valuable piece.  That’s all I really have to say about that.

Cincinnati – I have to tread lightly here.  My fiancée (the lovely and wonderful Laura Gale) grew up in Cincinnati; her family still lives there, and follows the team.  But (and here’s where I get in trouble) I just can’t get on the Reds bandwagon.  When your best pitcher last season was Bronson Arroyo, you’re in trouble.  The Reds haven’t brought in a decent free agent in years, and I not convinced that this will be the year.  They could get better with a couple of smaller pieces, like Jon Garland or Jason Marquis, but at the end of the day they’ll need their young starters to pitch well beyond their years.  What’s frustrating about the Reds is that they won’t pull the trigger on a big name until these guys consistently fail; they have too much invested.

Chicago – The Cubs are doomed.  It’s just that simple.  The front office can’t seem to get anything right.  And that’s why I think they should lock the check book in the desk this winter.  The team has the talent to win the division, and make a deep playoff run.  They just need to stay healthy, and come together as a unit.  We’ve seen all different kinds of teams win the World Series in the last decade, but I think what stands out most are the teams that squeaked by with chemistry.  Look at the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Cardinals, and I could keep going.  But the point is that they all won with smaller payrolls and an emphasis on chemistry.  And the Cubs can do just that; they will, of course, make some smaller moves to sure up their bench, but other than that, the Cubs brass should just let their previous work speak for itself.

St. Louis – The Cardinals need help in there starting rotation.  Doesn’t that sound crazy?  Joel Piniero, Todd Wellermeyer and Smoltzy have all filed for free agency leaving a HUGE hole behind the wonder twins at the top of the rotation.  I would put good money on the Cardinals making a run at John Lackey to give them an unstoppable one, two and three.  The only other hole that the Cardinals would need to look at would be at third base.  Mark DeRosa held the hot corner last year and will almost definitely be moving on to greener pastures this year.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll give rookie David Freese a look over at third if they can pull in Lackey, but if they get out-bid they could be in on the Adriane Beltre or Chone Figgins talks.

Houston – The Astros will lose at least three major pieces from the team last year.  Valverde will move on, Tejada is likely going to find a home on a contender so that he can end his career with a winner, and LaTroy Hawkins will be one of the most sought after set-up men in the league.  To fill these voids the Astros will turn to the free agent market rather than calling up prospects from the farm.  They will probably make offers to Marco Scutaro, Adam Everett or Orlando Cabrera to replace Tejada.  In the bullpen Rafael Betancourt, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel make sense in Houston.  The problem with the Astros is that they are getting older and need to compete now.  They’ll make some moves before spring training, but if they don’t contend we’ll see a fire-sale like in Pittsburgh, where they sell off pieces to restock their minor league system.

West

Colorado – The Rockies came on incredibly strong at the end of last season based on chemistry.  That should continue, with seven of nine position players returning, and four of five starters.  So what’s not to like?  Well I’ll tell yah.  The bullpen took a massive hit.  They stand to lose Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Rincon and Matt Herges.  They will most likely re-sign one or two of these guys, but will also be taking a look at the list of relievers on the market, and picking up a guy or two.  The bullpen is a big if, but the Rockies of the last couple years have been scrappy, and I think if they can make one or two decent signings, they could challenge for the N.L. Championship next season.

San Francisco – This may not be a well received opinion, but, there is no way that Tim Lincecum should have won the Cy Young this year.  This is, of course, just my opinion but I wanted to throw it out there.  Moving on…the Giants have a great starting rotation, and this is what is going to sustain them through next season.  They couldn’t hit last year, and they most likely won’t hit next year, unless they make a huge move.  The answer?  Jason Bay hitting home runs into San Francisco Bay!  The thought of hitting in front of the Kung Fu Panda for the next 6 or so years has to be enticing to Bay, especially with that starting staff.  The Giant pitchers will be good for many years to come, but if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs they’ll need a Bay…I mean bat.

San Diego – The big news surrounding the Padres this off-season is the possible departure of slugger, Adrian Gonzalez.  That said, the Padres front office doesn’t want to move him, which is just plain silly.  San Diego is about three good development years away from contending, and Gonzalez is only under contract through the end of next season.  If they hope to get ANYTHING of value from his departure it will be via trade.  Atlanta, Boston, New York (N.L.), and Chicago (A.L.) could all be a landing spots for Gonzalez, but the prospect asking price will be incredibly high.

Los Angeles – I would love to see Brad Penny go back and pitch for the Dodgers again this season.  He struggled in Boston for most of last year but I think he’s still got gas in the tank, and could completely dominate in the National League West.  The Dodgers need arms like most teams do, but I think they’ll be checking out the bargain basement deals this winter.  Penny is a name that jumps out; I also think that Pedro Martinez could be on Torre’s short list.  We all know that Pedro and Manny had a torrid love affair and would be stoked to reunite in sunny SoCal.  Add that to the fact that Pedro has already come out and said that he wants to pitch a full season next year, and you’ve got a match made in heaven.

American League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/02/2009 - 9:00 am | Predictions
2 Comments

Everyone and their mom thinks they have some idea about what their favorite baseball team will do this off-season, and I am clearly no different.  Baseball is my sport and I feel like I know it well, so I wanted to share my ideas with you.  The winter meetings are less than a week away, and the possible moves are surely about to start leaking out into the media.  Today I drop the American League list, and barring any permanent damage to my eyes from writing this column for five hours, I’ll bring you the National League tomorrow.  Also make sure you check back here every night starting next Monday.  I’ll be updating nightly from the Winter Meeting craziness in Indianapolis. That’s right, your favorite sports blogger is hitting the meetings baby!  Now, find your team on the list below and let me know what you think!

East

Tampa Bay – Tampa never figures to be one of the teams to land big name free agents, and I don’t believe that’s going to change this off-season.  Oddly though, this is one of the reasons why you have to respect this franchise so much.  The past two years they have been contenders in the A.L. East, even though they are a bottom up team and will most likely fill all of their holes this off-season from within.  That said, they will lose a lot of arms in the bullpen, and they could take from the free agent pool to help in that area.  They’ll look at names like Danys Baez, Juan Rincon, Claudio Vargas and Josh Fogg.  However, don’t look for them to sign any arbitration-eligible type A or B free agents.  The Rays are a team that don’t easily give up their draft picks.

Toronto – The big story surrounding the Blue Jays this off-season will be Roy Halladay.  He just recently announced that he won’t re-sign with Toronto if his contract expires, and he won’t accept a trade once the season starts.  Basically, he’s made sure the new GM up north knows that he best move him before spring training.  The most likely candidates are of course going to be the large market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cubs and Tigers, but the key here is going to be what Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos requests in a Halladay trade.  I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the asking price were too steep for any team to bite.  That would leave an angry Doc on the mound for the Blue Jays this season in a contract year.  Scary.

Baltimore – The Orioles team from last year is almost completely intact.  That, however, is the bad news.  The good news is that they are losing the aging contract of Melvin Mora and can more freely spend on a corner infielder like Nick Johnson or Chone Figgins.  Figgins will most likely be hotly pursued by teams with much looser purse strings than Baltimore, so look for them to go after Johnson hard.  They could also make a run at Juan Uribe, depending on where they want Ty Wigginton to play next year.  He spent some time at both first and third last season.

Boston – Ah, where to begin with my hometown team.  My guess is that Jason Bay won’t come back as the Sox left fielder next year, BUT Boston will sign Matt Holliday in his place.  They will most likely let Bay walk to get the draft pick that the team that signs him will have to give up.  The next issue is shortstop:  today Boston announced that they may move Pedroia over to short and go after a defensive-minded second basemen instead.  Felipe Lopez will most likely be on the radar if that is the case; he will be relatively affordable (probably 3 years at 5 mil a year) and has a career .977 fielding percentage at second.  Now…Halladay, is where it gets tricky.  Would he be fantastic at Fenway?  You bet.  Could the Sox sign him to a long term deal?  Or course.  Will his arm eventually turn gangrenous and fall off in the middle of an inning?  Sure is possible! Halladay has been the ONLY workhorse for the Blue Jays the last couple of years, sometimes throwing 140 pitches a game.  He’s going to wear down eventually and that’s why I think the Red Sox won’t throw everything they have at Toronto to get him.

New York – The Yankees need an outfielder, but I just don’t see them in the race for Bay or Holliday.  The front office put a ton of money into the team last off-season and they will be in great shape for a while.  They will mostly make smaller moves like the Red Sox did last year and let the big names they signed last off-season grow and continue to carry the team.  They may take on a veteran contract like Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad or Garret Anderson, and if they wanted to go a little younger they could look at Austin Kearns, who will come cheaply because he has only played on terrible teams and is undervalued at his position.   They will most likely re-sign Jose Molina to be the back-up catcher and Johnny Damon to work in tandem with Jorge Posada at DH. The Yankees of course will be players in the Halladay craziness but are an unlikely candidate to take the bait.  Aside from the little moves, mentioned previously, I think the Yankee front office will be pretty quiet this winter.

Central

Cleveland – The Indians are an enigma.  They have the look of a team in rebuilding mode but are only a couple of pieces away from competing in a very mediocre division.  My money would be on the Indians making a play for a third basemen and some help in the starting rotation.  If Cleveland can land a name like Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf or Rich Harden, they will have a patchwork but decent one-two punch at the top of the rotation.  They could also take a look at giving Ben Sheets an incentive-laden contract in his post-injury year.  The Indians have a lot of young talent, and my guess is that they’ll play it safe this off-season and see where the chips fall once play begins.  If they are contending at the trade deadline, I think we’ll see them pull out the stops to land a big-time pitcher and make a playoff push.

Kansas City – Well, if you read the blog you know that the Kansas City Royals lost a LOT of games last year, but they have a crazy good pitcher at the top of their rotation.  If they are to come close to contending next year, they are going to need more arms.  Ben Sheets could also be a good option here.  Kansas City is the smallest of markets, but he will only cost a lot if he pitches well. This is because he will almost definitely receive a contract that will pay him based on incentives, like strikeouts, and the number of starts he makes.  The Royals are set on the corners with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but they could also take a look at help in the outfield or the middle infield.  They will look to get younger and better on defense, and therefore, may make a run at Adam Everett or Khalil Greene to solidify their infield.

Detroit – The Tigers have a ton of work to do, and I’m not afraid to say it.  They could potentially lose 2 starters from last year, as well as their closer, set-up man, and DH.  The Tigers, though, are not afraid to spend some dough to fill these holes; they had the fifth highest payroll in the majors last year.  If they can fill the two gaps in the middle infield, perhaps with Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera, and re-sign Rodney to close games, this team could be very dangerous next season.  These are all big ifs of course; the Detroit brass could decide to let those contracts go and turn this into a rebuilding year.  There have been rumors surrounding Miguel Cabrera’s availability, and any deal involving Miggy would land the Tigers a prospect mother-load.  That said, I just don’t see Detroit sitting on the side lines with a starting rotation that is as solid as you’ll find in the league.

Minnesota – The Twins traded away Carlos Gomez to the Brewers because they have a hunch that Denard Span can be the everyday centerfielder in Minnesota, and I think that was a great move.  Span hit .311 last year in almost 600 at bats and will most likely be the lead-off hitter on opening day.  The only hole left by departing free agents will be at third base, now that Joe Crede has decided to hit the open market.  We may see the Twins go after Mark DeRosa or give Adrian Beltre a shot.  Aside from that, the field is pretty much set for the Twins.  The biggest issue facing Minny this year will be starting pitching.  As last season ended, we saw the emergence of Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing.  But, to compete in that division and make a deep playoff run, the Twins may need to go out and get a back of the rotation type of guy.  They’ll take a look at guys like Livan Hernandez, Todd Wellemeyer, and Vincente Padilla; they may also kick the tires on some old guys like Pedro, Petitte, or Jarrod Washburn.

Chicago – The White Sox don’t actually have a lot of work to do.  They’ve already signed Omar Vizquel to play short and traded to get Mark Teahan, who can play any outfield position but will most likely spend most of his time in left.  Their starting rotation is solid, barring injury, and they have a great closer in Bobby Jenks.  The only position that Chicago needs to look at is catcher, and there aren’t that many impact backstops on the market right now.  They may look at Torrealba from Colorado or Josh Bard from Washington, but neither one of these guys scream Chicago to me.  Most likely they’ll give their rookie catcher Tyler Flowers a look.  He hit .297 with 15 home runs in the minors last year.  If the White Sox decide to make a move other than at catcher, they’ll most likely look for some help spelling DJ Carrasco and Scott Linebrink in the bullpen.  They may also add some depth on the bench to back up the corner infielders.

West

Oakland – Honest to god, I had no idea who Andrew Bailey was when he won the Rookie of the Year award two weeks ago.  I admit it-  I just completely overlooked him.  Upon further review…holy crap, this kid is good. He whiffed 91 batters in 83 innings and racked up 26 saves.  I think it’s safe to say that the A’s have the closer role locked up for a couple years.  And while the bullpen may be set for a while, the rest of the team is in some serious trouble.  The A’s are going to rely heavily on their young players to make an impact this year.  They are losing the aging contracts of Nomar Garciaparra and Brett Tomko and most likely will be looking for a veteran bat to help the youngsters out.  The most likely candidate would be Nick Johnson.  He fits into Billy Beane’s money-ball philosophy and could be a bargain if the A’s can convince his agent that there are durability issues.

Seattle – The Mariners have already landed their major prize this off-season in Ken Griffey Jr.  He was signed so that fans will come back to watch what will most likely be his final year as a player.  His new deal has incentives based on fan attendance and his ability to stay on the active roster for the whole year.  So, clearly the front office isn’t expecting Grif to hit 50 home runs this season.  So where’s the pop coming from?  Most likely Russell Branyan will re-sign, but if he doesn’t, look for the Mariners to make a run at Hideki Matsui.  It would be a perfect fit for Godzilla; he would be closer to his fan base in Japan, and it would put him on a roster with another of the greatest Asian-born players in the history of the league.  It also benefits Seattle.  The main reason the Branyan deal hasn’t been done is Russell’s insistence on a multi-year contract.  The Mariners are looking to offer no more than a two-year deal, which is perfect for the injury-prone Matsui.

Texas – I’m still surprised that the Rangers were in the playoff picture towards the close of the season, but they proved they were the real deal.  I think the Rangers are going to build on the success of last year and challenge the Angels for the division title next year.  The Texas bigwigs don’t have a lot to do this off-season, and I think that will benefit them in the long run.  They are returning all of their position players from last season, as well as the top arms in their rotation.  I think if you see the Rangers go after anyone, it will be a DH- Vlad Guerrero perhaps?  The Angels denied Vlad salary arbitration, and the Rangers would love to get an angry Guerrero into their line-up.  The Rangers could also use a starter.  Joel Piniero would fit perfectly into this rotation.  He is a ground ball pitcher, and in a ballpark like Arlington, keeping the ball on the ground is paramount.

Los Angeles – Last, but certainly not least, are the Angels.  They are in an interesting spot this off-season.  They are arguably losing more important pieces than any other team.  John Lackey and Chone Figgins have filed for free agency, leaving the Angels with some major holes to fill.  I believe that the spot at third will be filled via free agency, and the hole at the top of the rotation will be filled via a trade.  Did I mention earlier in the article that Roy Halladay happens to be on the market?  Now, I still don’t think Halladay will move, but if he does, I think the team most likely to get him will be the Angels.  Hear me out.  The Angels have a winning culture (which Halladay likes), they can pay him (which Halladay likes), and they are a warm weather city (which Halladay likes).  Now the big question is, do the Angels have the prospects and Major League talent to land him?  I think they do.  With a package including Fabio Martinez Mesa (204 Ks in 136 inn. last year, with a 3.03 career minor league ERA), Hank Conger (.296/.350/.464, 11HRs, 68RBI in the minors last season), and a major league arm like Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders, I think the Angels could come away with the biggest prize of the off-season.

Zack Greinke > The Kansas City Royals

  By Chris Speziale | 11/18/2009 - 12:52 pm | Impress Your Friends
1 Comment

Did you know that Zack Greinke won the A.L. Cy Young Award yesterday?  Did you also know, that his team had the lowest win percentage of any team in history to have a Cy Young winner?  Kansas City won 65 games last year, good for a .401 win pct.  Next on the list of lowly teams with lights out pitchers: The 1996 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 74 games for a .457 win pct., and had Pat Hentgen take home the most prestigious pitching prize in the American League. Like the alliteration?

The Mission Statement

  By Chris Speziale | 11/06/2009 - 12:00 pm | Mission Statement
1 Comment

If the Red Sox won the World Series but no one was there to see it, did it happen?  Picture this.  Keith Foulke is on the mound for the Red Sox, it’s game 4 of the 2004 World Series in St. Louis.  Edgar Renteria steps into the box with a 1-0 count. He takes the next pitch and hits a knubber back to the mound.  Foulke snares it; he is so stunned and excited that he hesitates to throw on to first.  He takes a couple steps towards the bag and flips underhanded to Doug Mientkiewicz.  That’s it.  The Red Sox have just won their first World Series title in 86 years.  BUT! The stands are empty, there are no camera crews, no flash bulbs, no Joe Buck trying to capture the emotions of hundreds of thousands of Boston fans.  It’s just a bunch of guys pouring champagne all over each other in the middle of a baseball field.  Doesn’t sound right, does it? So what conclusion do we draw from this? We face facts: it’s a fans game.  And I’m not just talking about baseball.  The American sports industry would be absolutely nowhere without its fan base.

That one moment on October 27th, 2004 changed the lives of millions of people and sent a riptide through the sports world.  With an unlikely cast of characters, a sometimes wobbly manager, and a 3-0 hole to the Yankees in the ALCS, no one expected them to win.  But they did, and it was the fans who carried them through those last 8 games.  When Dave Roberts stole that base in game 4, we knew something special was about to happen.  On ANY other Red Sox team, in ANY other year, he gets thrown out and the season is over.  But he didn’t and the Sox pulled off one of the most incredible comebacks in the history of sports. And WE did it.  Am I biased?  You bet your ass I am.  The Red Sox are my team.  They have been since I came out of the womb.  I’ve followed them every season since I could comprehend the game.  We, as fans, want to believe that we are a part of this, that we can somehow affect the outcome and push our team to the next level.  We employ truly crazy superstitions, wear rally caps and scream until our lungs bleed, all in the hope that we get to see them in the playoffs. We pour our hearts and souls into these teams.   So why are we getting such a raw deal?  Professional sports are an industry.  I get it.  There is money to be made, and if you have the opportunity to make a buck, why wouldn’t you do it?  Ticket prices are climbing, the media frenzy is increasing, every Tom, Dick or Harry is writing a blog (ironic, isn’t it?) or doing a Podcast.  We are all trying to cash in.  All it’s costing us is our sports identity.

That’s where I come in.  I took a sports broadcasting class this summer led by the immortal Ed Ingles.  He brought in a cast of characters to impart some wisdom on breaking into the sports business.  And they all basically had the same advice: Don’t quit, practice practice practice, and lastly, write.  It was that last one that knocked me for a loop.  I never considered writing; I didn’t think I had the chops, but sports broadcasting is what I want to do.  It’s something I feel like I can be good at.  So what do you write about?  Who will read it?  I thought about this for a long time and I came to this.  Fans will read it.  And so, I will write about the fans.  How do we get that identity back?  Who will fight for it? I don’t have the answers, but I’m hoping to explore these questions, and with your help maybe we can figure something out, come to some sort of arrangement, either with the sport (whichever it may be) or with ourselves.

So what are we going to do here?  I’m glad you asked.  Of course we’re going to talk sports, because a real fan isn’t a fan without knowledge.  But this can be so much more than that.  Along with all those sports posts, on the first Friday of every month you’ll see a story about the fan experience.  We have lots to discuss; whether it be gambling, fantasy sports, announcers, TV blackouts, the disappearance of the NHL, the lack of soccer in America or just plain old ticket prices — we’re going to cover it all.  And I want your feedback.  Each monthly post will be sent along with all your comments, to someone who can make a difference.  For example, the post set for December is about the disappearance of the NHL.  After the lockout ended in 2005 it seemed like the league vanished from TV and sports news shows, but no one seemed to get angry and it continued to get worse.  Now they cover, maybe 10 games nationally all year.  In the 2008-2009 postseason you couldn’t even see the first three rounds on National TV! So, we send the letter along with all your comments to NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman in hopes that he’ll notice the millions of hockey fans aching for more coverage. Will it work? Who knows?  But it’s worth standing up for.  Sports mean so much to us, so why shouldn’t we fight back? The 2004 Boston Red Sox were underdogs just like the fans of today.  Everyone is counting us out, but maybe, just maybe, we can pull off an even bigger comeback.