Monthly Archives: December 2009

Be GONE, Year of Celebrity Death!

  By Chris Speziale | 12/31/2009 - 3:26 pm | Musings
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It was a rough year to be a celebrity.  If you’re a celeb-rag reader, or just a plain old fan of the privileged life, you are probably glad that the calendar year is coming to an end. WCBS.tv lists 129 famous people who passed away over the last 365 days, most notably: Michael Jackson, Brittany Murphy, Ricardo Montalban, James Whitmore, Socks the Cat, Ron Silver, Natasha Richardson, Bea Arthur, Dom DeLuise, David Carradine, Ed McMahon, Farah Fawcett, and Billy Mays.  And, as if that wasn’t a mouthful, the sports world was also hit by the grim reaper. Nick Adenhart, Harry Kalas, Mark Fidrych, Les Keiter, Merle Harmon, Dom Dimaggio, and most recently Chris Henry, will be resting in peace in 2010.  Being a sportscaster, the passing the Harry Kalas hits home the most.  He was one of the most distinctive voices in the game and was never lost for words when it came to the game of baseball.  He was eloquent, intelligent, and human.  That made him all the more pleasant to listen to.  Scott Franzke and Larry Andersen have some huge shoes to fill– here’s hoping the Philly fan-base embraces the new team. But why are we marking the New Year with such a solemn column?  Well, we’re not!  If you’re reading this blog, you are most likely a sports fan, and if you’re a sports fan you should be totally stoked for 2010.

Right out of the gate, we’ve got a crazy cool event. The NHL Winter Classic drops on New Years Day at 1PM in Boston, where the Bruins and the Flyers will square-off.  Boston comes into the game second in the Northeast Division and the Flyers are chasing down the Devils, who have been absolutely lights out of late.  Boston has been waiting all season for its Vezina Trophy winner to return to the form that won him best goalie honors last year. Side note: if you want a comment included in the “More NHL Coverage” post, you need to put it up by Jan. 4th.  That’s when we’re sticking that sucker in the mail to Commish Bettman.  Anyway, Tim Thomas has been on the ice for extra practice the last couple of weeks and he’s starting to come around.  In his last 4 starts he’s 3-1 and has a save percentage up over his career average of .933.  He also has 4 shutouts on the young season, which is one shy of the career high he set last year.

Not only is Tim Thomas starring in one of the coolest (literally) NHL games of the season, he will also most likely be tapped as the number two goalie for the US Olympic team.  The Canadiens are sure to be the favorites in Vancouver, with Sid the Kid, Marty Broduer, and Joe Thornton leading the way. In 2006, the U.S. finished second in the medal count with twenty-five, nine of them gold.  But this year the U.S. is sending a standout team to the games.  Apollo Ono will be returning to defend his gold in the 500M speed-skating event, Shaun White will be the favorite to take any and all of the snowboarding events, and Hannah Teter and Gretchen Bleiler will be back to take on the women’s snowboarding events.

And of course, how can we talk about the Winter Olympics without a single mention of figure skating?  It’s only the single most graceful, athletic, emotional, and inspiring sport on the planet.  Ok, clearly I’m kidding, BUT there are a lot of people out there who really dig the ice dancing (my fiancée included). There are a bunch of American names to watch in February:  For the women, Rachael Flatt who finished 5th at the World Championships in Los Angeles last spring, Mirai Nagasu who is only 16 and unproven in international competition, and then there’s Sasha Cohen, the reigning Olympic Silver medalist, who is coming off a knee injury and looking to prove a point.  On the men’s side, current World Champion Evan Lysacek will be going for the gold against fellow American and rival Johnny Weir. The opening ceremony of the Olympic Games will be February 12th, with competition beginning the next day.

Not only do we get the Olympics in February, but 2010 also brings us a World Cup in South Africa.  The U.S. team made the Quarters in 2002 and hopes to push even further this year.  The FIFA rankings have recently been released and the Americans pulled in a number 14 ranking.  They also got a very interesting draw.  England awaits them in the opening match on June 12th, with matches against Algeria and Slovenia to follow.  The way I see it, the Americans will need at least two victories and a draw to advance onto the next stage of play.  But if you’re a true soccer fan, the group to watch will be the so-called “Group of Death.” This year, that would be Group G.  Brazil, Portugal and the Ivory Coast are all ranked in the top 16 by FIFA.  Should be very, very interesting.  The World Cup kicks off (get it? kicks off?) on June 11th in South Africa.

So, you’ve got the Olympics, the World Cup, the Winter Classic, and all the regulars coming your way in 2010.  The loneliest stretch of the year comes between the World Cup and the start of NFL training camps in August.  During that month, all you’ll have to occupy your time is, you know, baseball.  Jeesh, tough life.  So put away the black veil (Manganaro), and the box of Kleenex; you’ll be so wrapped up in sports next year, you won’t even notice when Lindsay Lohan kicks the bucket.

A Bowl Game a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

  By Chris Speziale | 12/17/2009 - 4:15 pm | Predictions
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When I was ten, I had a gambling problem.  It’s my dad’s fault, really.  He has worked for a big hospital in Boston for a whole bunch years now, and every year they would do a Bowl Poll.  It’s easy; you just pick the winner against the spread in every bowl game.  It was twenty bucks per entry, and every single year my father, brother and I would fill out our little scorecards and my dad would bring them into his office.  The twenty bucks came out of our own pockets, so there was a great matter of pride involved.  Here’s the problem: I was ten!  I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I don’t think my picks ever finished in the top ten.  But, that’s what I think of now every time the bowl season comes around.  This year the games kick off crazy early, with the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday the 19th.  Or course, the purpose of the bowl games is to crown a college football champion, and this year all games give way to Pasadena. The National Championship will pit Alabama against Texas.  Both teams are undefeated (along with Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. Cough, Cough), but due to the BCS system, this will be the defacto title game.  Here’s the rub: You can only watch so many of these games before your head explodes.  So which ones should you keep an eye on?  I’ll give you a game a day, and highlight a couple that I think you shouldn’t miss.

December 19th 8PM (ESPN), St. Petersburg Bowl – Rutgers vs. Central Florida, this could be Rutgers last game in the Big East, they’re looking to win big to prove to the Big 10 bigwigs that they can handle the pressure’s of a tougher schedule.

December 20th 8:30PM (ESPN), R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee, this is the only game on the 20th….that’s all I have to say about that.

December 22nd 8PM (ESPN), MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – You want points?  Check this out: BYU vs. Oregon St.  The Cougars average a shade under 35 points per game, and the Beavers score 32 a game.  This will be an offensive crazyfest!  That’s right, I just coined a new term.  These two teams light up the score board, but they get it done using two different philosophies.  Oregon State will use a mixed attack and rely on J. Rodgers. Who is J. Rodgers you ask?  It’s TWO guys, James and Jacquizz Rodgers.  James is the number one receiver for the Beavers, who has caught 87 balls for over a thousand yards and 9 TD’s.  Jacquizz is the number one running back who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and has scored 20 touchdowns.  On the other side, BYU’s aerial attacked is one of the best in the country. Quarterback Max Hall has thrown for over 3,300 yards and has 30 touchdowns this year.  Hall has a ton of weapons to work with; nine of his receivers have caught more than 15 balls this year.  Oregon State is favored by 2.5 points in this game, and that’s a no-brainer.  Usually in a game like this, I would highlight the defense; whichever defense makes a stand will win the contest.  But, this game comes down to conferences.  Oregon State plays in the supremely competitive Pac 10 and BYU plays in the much weaker Mountain West Conference.  For that reason I’m taking Oregon State (-2.5).

December 23rd 8PM (ESPN), San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Utah vs. Cal, it’s the only game on this date, but it’s going to be a good one.  Another Mountain West team trying to prove itself, and Cal will be a tough test.

December 24th 8PM (ESPN), Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Nevada vs. SMU, only game…check it.

December 26th 8PM (ESPN), Emerald Bowl – USC was picked by many in the preseason to play for a national title, but Pete Carroll picked a freshmen to quarterback the team, and he has yet to prove himself.  In this game, that freshman, will take on the Eagles of Boston College.  BC finished it’s season 8-4, with a 5-3 tally in conference.  This is only the fourth year the Eagles have played in the ACC, and they are proving they can play with the big boys.  They racked up victories against Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina State, and Maryland in conference.  Conversely, USC’s season wasn’t just disappointing but truly devastating.  The Trojans finished 6th in the Pac-10 after Oregon, and Oregon State emerged, and took the reins in what was supposed to be USC’s conference.  But when you put all of that aside, the Eagles have a stout defense, and that makes this game a must watch.  USC is a flashy team, they score points at will, and have a ton of weapons.  But, BC’s run defense has held opponents to 3 yards per carry in its twelve games, and has allowed only 19 points per game.  The Trojans are favored by a touchdown in this game, but that’s too much.  While USC wins, the Eagles beat the spread, in what will be on of the best games of the bowl season.

December 27th 8:30PM (ESPN), Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson, see C.J. Spiller take out his aggression on the Wildcats.  Seriously, why wasn’t this guy invited to the Heisman presentation?

December 28th 5PM (ESPN), AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Texas A&M vs. Georgia, winning one for the puppy.  The Georgia mascot has passed away.  Look for the Bulldogs to come out flying to honor the late pup.

December 29th 8PM (ESPN), Champs Sports Bowl – Miami vs. Wisconsin, this should be entertaining.  Two great defenses, but give the advantage to Miami. This game is being played in Florida.

December 30th 8PM (ESPN), Pacific Life Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona, last chance to see Ndamukong Suh as a college player.  He’ll be a top ten next April for sure.

December 31st 2PM (CBS), Brut Sun Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Stanford, I love, love, love Toby Gerhart.  I think he has the potential to be a pro-bowl caliber fullback or tight end in the NFL.

January 1st 8PM (FOX), Allstate Sugar Bowl – This is the bizarro National Title Game.  It was tough to pick a game from New Years Day; if you are in it for the long haul make sure you check out the Rose Bowl at 4:30 before this one.  Oregon vs. Ohio State will be a classic, but it’s no Sugar Bowl.  I detailed in an earlier column that Cincinnati had a shot to play against either Alabama or Florida for the National Title if Texas lost any game to close the season.  They didn’t, but Cincy still gets an opportunity to take down one-loss Florida in the Sugar Bowl.  Not a lot of people are giving the Bearcats a chance in this one, but I think any team that can score like Tony Pike and the boys has a shot.  Cincinnati’s offense averages 40 a game, and while Florida does have a strong defense, this game will probably be a shoot out.  It’s in a controlled environment that will be incredibly loud, and the Bearcats are angry.  Brian Kelly fled the team for a more lucrative, high profile position at Notre Dame.  The Bearcat players have called out their old coach, and are promising a competitive game against Florida.  The odds makers in Las Vegas are giving Cincy 10.5 points in this one, which is absolutely crazy.  Not only do I think they make the spread, but they will beat the Gators in New Orleans 48-45.  Alabama exposed the Gators weakness in the SEC Championship game; running screens and hitting the TE over the middle.  Cincy has one of the best weapons to exploit that weakness. Mardy Gilyard is one of the best, and biggest wide receivers in the game; they’ll use him on quick outs to the sideline and let him run people over.  Look for him to have a big game in what will most definitely be a fantastic upset in college football.

January 2nd 2PM (ESPN), PapaJohns.com Bowl – South Carolina vs. UConn, the Huskies are out-matched in this one, but UConn coach Randy Edsall was thrust into the national spotlight when Notre Dame came knocking.  Brian Kelly ended up with the job, but Edsall now has something to prove.  Can he out-coach Steve Spurrier in this bowl game, and stick it to the Irish? Look out.

January 4th 8PM (FOX), Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs. TCU, this is another battle of undefeated teams.  Not sure what to say about it.  Two great teams that don’t get enough respect looking to knock each other around.

January 5th 8PM (FOX), FedEx Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs. Iowa, tops in the ACC takes on second place in the Big Ten.  This will be a slow, methodical, defense oriented game.  But, it’s the only one on the fifth, so enjoy.

January 6th 7PM (ESPN), GMAC Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Troy, I have no idea how this game made it so far into the bowl slate.

January 7th 8PM (ABC), BCS National Championship Game – I could try and handicap this one, but really I have NO clue who wins.  Both of these teams deserve a shot to play for the title and I think it will be a classic game.  The Tide will use Heisman winner Mark Ingram to run the Longhorns into the ground, but Texas has some guy named Colt McCoy.  The Texas quarterback isn’t having the greatest of seasons, but he’s done enough to get his team back to the title game.  A lot of the media pundits are picking Alabama to win this one because Texas hasn’t blown people away this year, but that’s because the Longhorn defense is much improved.  I think this is going to be a close one, and I’ve always been told that if you’re on the fence you should go with the points, so I’m taking Texas (+4) to beat the spread.  The winner of the game, however, I could never predict.

Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

  By Chris Speziale | 12/11/2009 - 5:30 pm | Musings
2 Comments

I promised you all that there would be a post every night from Indianapolis, and well…I lied.  I was a little busy trying to find a job!  The interesting this was, there really wasn’t that much going on in Indy this week.  If you’d like a list of EVERY single transaction from the last four days, you should click HERE.  I’ve always been a big fan of ESPN.com, and they did a great job keeping on top of everything, including staff hiring’s and front office stuff.  We could certainly break down every single deal that went down, but we’d be here forever.  So let’s just talk about the three biggest trades or signings that came out of the Winter Meetings this week.

Chone Figgins signs with Seattle – This was a big deal.  It was the first major signing of the off-season, and it came from the Mariners.  This was a signal; the Mariners were going to sprint out of the gate this off-season, and they wanted to spend.  Seattle wasn’t going to take no for an answer, and this manifested itself pretty quickly; the Mariners have now been linked to Jason Bay and John Lackey.  If they decide to break the bank and sign all three of those guys, they will be a force in the AL West next season.  The Mariners are also still involved in talks with Adrian Beltre. This would mean that Figgins could play a different position, as Beltre is the incumbent third-basemen; Figgins would be an upgrade over Michael Saunders in left.  Ichiro is also interested in this signing because he stands to lose his spot in the leadoff position.  It’s pretty unlikely, but possible.  They will probably end up hitting 1-2 or 9-1 with Figgins in the 2 or 9 spot. My question: Do you really want to spend $36 Million on your number 9 hitter?

Curtis Granderson is traded to the Yankees – You should always expect the Yankees to make big news in the off-season, and they certainly didn’t disappoint this year. Of the four days in Indy, this deal caused the most stir and was the only headline maker.  Let’s see if I can put this in print so that it can be understood: The Tigers trade OF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for OF Austin Jackson and LHP Phil Coke.  Detroit also sent RHP Edwin Jackson to the Diamond Backs in exchange for LHP Max Scherzer and RHP Dan Schlereth.  To finalize the deal, New York sent RHP Ian Kennedy to the D-Backs.  This was a good trade for everyone involved, including the players.  Granderson is a great clubhouse guy, and New York fans will love his work ethic. Now the Yanks can focus on bringing back Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui to play DH, and they’re good to go.  The D-Backs get two great young arms out of this deal as well.  Edwin Jackson should thrive in the NL West, thanks to the big ballparks, and the AAAA National League hitters.  Having said that, I think the Tigers are the clear cut winners on this deal.  They get they flame throwing lefty from Arizona, Max Scherzer and one of the best outfield prospects in all of baseball.  I think most importantly, the Tigers got a lot younger, AND received four players!  Even if only two of these guys become everyday players the Tigers win, and it’s very possible that two OR three of them could be on the 40 man roster when the season starts next April.

The Rangers big week – I wrote last week that I was surprised that the Rangers stayed in the playoff hunt so late into the season, and I am equally surprised by the moves they made at the meetings.  Surprised, and extremely impressed.  The Rangers traded RHP Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for RHP Chris Ray and LHP Ben Snyder.  Ray will be an excellent addition to the Rangers bullpen, and will most set-up for Frank Francisco.  Snyder is probably a year or two away from pitching in the big leagues, but his first season in the minors was a great success.  Out of the bullpen last year, he pitched 97 innings, struck out 86, and had a 2.88 ERA.  The Rangers also added RHP Rich Harden to the rotation, and this could turn out to be the signing of the year.  Harden is injury prone, and he is pulling in seven and a half million bucks next season.  But, when healthy, there is no one better.  In his career he’s averaged more than a strikeout per inning, while only allowing two walks per nine.  Harden has also come out in the past two days stating that he’d like to pitch two hundred innings this year for the Rangers, which would be a career high.  What’s lost in all of this is the grudge factor.  The A’s traded Harden to the Cubs before the trade deadline in 2008, and you have to believe that he wants to stick it to his new division rival, Oakland.  Texas is a tough place to pitch, but Harden has a point to prove and I think he could be one of the surprise stories of 2010.

So New York, Detroit, Arizona, Texas and Seattle all had good weeks.  And there will be a LOT more teams to add to that list before baseball Spring Training starts, and we’ll have all the news and analysis right here at ChrisSpez.com.  Enjoy!

The Mission: More NHL Coverage

  By Chris Speziale | 12/04/2009 - 1:00 pm | Mission Statement
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Dear Commissioner Bettman,

My name is Chris Speziale, and I write a blog on ChrisSpez.com.  The blog is centered around fans and the fan experience.  Once a month, I explore an aspect of the sports world that has been bothering fans, write a letter to a person in a position of influence, and then send that letter along with all of the readers’ comments to that person.  This month I’m taking a look at NHL television coverage, and I think you can help, which is why you’re receiving this letter.  I’ve been a hockey fan since I was a little kid; I grew up in Boston, so the Bruins are my team.  They had an incredible run last year, no?  I personally don’t think the Canes should have beaten us, but they had the momentum coming into the series and they took it from us.  I’m getting off topic.  In the Conference Quarters and Semis last year there were 4 games that I missed parts of because I’m no longer a Boston local.  My readers and I were curious why hockey is the only of the 4 major U.S. sports not have its playoff games nationally televised?

Hockey coverage in the United States has essentially disappeared since the new C.B.A. in 2005.  It’s under-exposed; it’s gotten to the point where, when I typed “NHL Commissioners Office” into Google to get your address, it told me I was mistaken.  Surely, I meant the “NFL Commissioners Office”.  And yes, I know that NBC just bought Versus, and we should see a higher quality product with greater availability.  And yes, the Olympics are coming back, which should spark some interest.  But how can we expect to grow the sport if we can’t watch it on national TV?  I follow the B’s closely on the internet, and watch whenever they play the Rangers, Devils or Islanders because I’m now a New York resident, but I want to see highlights.  I want to be able to turn on Sportscenter and see the Bruins score.  The only hockey we get on national television is the occasional Ovechkin highlight in the days top ten.  It isn’t enough.  Hockey fans are loyal, blue collared Americans, trying to sell their sport in a country that is struggling, and we feel like we have no voice.  Even the players have been feeling jipped, Paul Kelly tried to speak up on their behalf (they want to be seen to you know), and he was let go.  Now, not only do the players not have a rep, but the fans have been left out in dark as well.

It’s not like people don’t want to watch; last season the Stanley Cup playoffs were the highest rated in seven years, and attendance has been steadily on the rise since we came out of the lockout.  The problem is that when they want to watch, they can’t.  Versus isn’t available in all areas, and the NHL Center Ice package is far too expensive for the average person in our economic state.  Now, I’m not proposing anything crazy here, and honestly you might not even be the guy who can help us.  But, you’re the commish, and you get things done.  I appreciate the rule changes that have come down over the last couple of years.  I like that player safety has taken on greater importance. I like that the game has gained speed. And I like that scoring is up, but the only people who are watching are the ones who would have watched anyway.  I knew coming out of the lockout in 2005 that we were going to be in for some tough times.  Americans need to be beaten over the head with things, and the fact that hockey was gone for an entire year hurt.  That said, nobody expected that they’d be here 4 years after the lockout, wishing they could stay home and watch game 7 of the Bruins/Hurricanes series rather than having to drop fifty bucks at a bar with NESN.  But here we are, so let’s start small.  One half hour a week on a major network.  That’s it; I think it’s all we need to start getting things back on track.

If we can get a highlights and analysis show on a channel like NBC or ESPN the sport will get noticed.  Hockey has the TV personalities to pull it off, and if you put a likeable guy in front of the camera, people will warm to it.  It’s also a matter of understanding; hockey is a complex sport, with a lot of rules, and I think the average person needs a little help grasping its concepts.  A good analyst could help explain plays, coaching strategies, and playoff scenarios.  We can call it, “Hockey Night in America,” or “The NHL Tonight”.  It’s not a ridiculous concept, and with the NBC/Versus merger, you now have access to one of the largest and most advanced television studios in the world.

I believe that sports and genealogy have a lot in common; loyalties and fandom are passed from generation to generation. I think if we can get a little more press, attendance will rise, and parents will start passing hockey traditions on to their kids. Then, when the ripple affect takes hold, you’ll have a whole new generation of fans.  I hope to be a hockey fan for the rest of my life, and I plan to teach my children the game if it survives.  That’s why we need help.  The NHL is stuck in the back of the American mind right now.  Will you help us move it to the forefront?

Thank you for your time,

A Concerned Citizen of Hockey Nation

National League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/03/2009 - 12:32 pm | Predictions
2 Comments

As promised, here is the next installment in the Hot Stove saga.  Feels like Twilight, doesn’t it!? Ick.  Anyway, please feel free to give this a read, and let me know what you think.  And remember to check back starting next Monday night for analysis from the Winter Meetings.  I’ll break-down the deals of the day, and at some point I’d like to do a running blog, but we’ll just have to wait and see if I can work that out.  Without further ado:

East

New York – We start our trip around the National League with the Mets.  New York has a lot of players hitting free agency, including Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, but those aren’t the major issues facing Los Mets.  The biggest hole is in left field where Gary Sheffield roamed for New York when he wasn’t injured last season.  The Mets will most definitely be in the Holliday and Bay sweepstakes and will probably make a more serious run at Holliday.  Holliday, as one of my readers pointed out, hits better in the National League than the American.  There have also been rumors circling that the Mets are looking to trade Luis Castillo.  A possible landing spot for him would be the Dodgers, who lose Orlando Hudson this off-season.  If they can’t land one of the big free agents look for them to make a move with L.A. for one of their young outfielders.

Florida – The Marlins are in pretty good shape going into the 2010 season.  They have last years Rookie of the Year in left, and a stable of good young arms to rival any team in the league.  They traded away Jeremy Hermida to Boston, which probably means that they’re comfortable with Cody Ross in right. So what are they going to be doing in the coming months?  Perhaps shopping for a corner infielder?  They are losing Nick Johnson and will be looking for some OBP to replace him.  I see Kevin Millar as a good fit here.  We know the Marlins budget won’t allow them to offer a large contract, and Millar won’t be looking for big bucks at age 38.  He is a good clubhouse guy and a great leader.  And that, is something the Marlins covet.

Atlanta – I think the Braves this winter are going to focus on in house matters.  Martin Prado is due for an extension, and they have two big names hitting free agency that they are going to try and lock up.  Adam LaRoche is one of them, and Rafael Soriano is the other.  They signed Billy Wagner to close which signals the end of the Mike Gonzalez experiment.  Gonzalez was good, but allowed a lot of runners to reach base; it appears that Wagner did enough in his short stint with Boston last year to convince the Atlanta brass that he could handle the job.  The Braves may also take a look at some of the under the radar corner outfielders to replace Garret Anderson, like Austin Kearns or Xavier Nady.

Philadelphia – The Phillies have already been busy this off-season.  They signed Brian Schnieder right out from under the Mets noses, which strengthens an already steady stable of backstops for the Phillies.  If the N.L. Champs are going to make a splash in free agency it will be looking for bullpen help.  Everyone knows that Charlie Manuel had trouble picking his closer during the playoffs this past year and I think that will be Philadelphia’s top priority.  They’ll take a look at Mike Gonzalez, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano.  The interesting thing about this list is that almost all of these guys played for division rivals last year, which means that those teams may try and drive up the price.  That’s why I think Valverde is their guy.

Washington – My advice to Ted Lerner and Stan Kasten?  Break the bank!  I had the pleasure of seeing RFK Stadium this summer and have to say, it is a fantastic place to watch baseball…if your team doesn’t suck.  The Nationals only need three pieces to contend.  Yes, yes I know that’s actually a lot of pieces, BUT it’s doable.  They need a power hitting outfielder, a closer, and a starter.  Simple: Rick Ankiel, Kevin Gregg, and Ardolis Chapman.  Ankiel and Gregg will come relatively cheaply; they are young-ish and they both have something to prove.  If Chapman is as good as they say he is, and they’re saying he’s reeeeeeeal good, he could be the number one starter on that staff for the next 10 years.  Now put Strasberg in the number two spot, with Lannan and Zimmerman at three and four!  Chapman is an enigma, and because he’d provoke curiosity, he’d put butts in the seats. That’s what the Nationals need right now; they have no revenue coming in from ticket sales or merchandising.  They could sign these three guys for a combined cost of 14 million a season and they only lose one draft pick.  It’s a no brainer; I should be the Nationals’ GM.

Central

Milwaukee – The Brewers stand to lose a lot of pieces this off-season, if they don’t come to terms with their slew of free agents.  Most notably would be Jason Kendall; the Milwaukee catcher would be sorely missed if he decides to sign elsewhere.  The Brewers saw the emergence of two young players last year and have the makings of a team that could be good for a long time. To compete next year, however, they will probably go after some pitching help; someone to help in the rotation would be the key.  For this team I like Erik Bedard or Kelvim Escobar – two guys that are coming off injury, looking to prove themselves, make sense for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh – I just…well, I really have no idea what to say about the Pirates.  They don’t have any free agent holes to fill, which is nice.  And they have a young team, which is nice.  But the Pirates seem to be constantly in a state of rebuilding, and I think that until they pull above .500 for a full season we’ll see Pittsburgh play out the first half of the season, and then sell off every valuable piece.  That’s all I really have to say about that.

Cincinnati – I have to tread lightly here.  My fiancée (the lovely and wonderful Laura Gale) grew up in Cincinnati; her family still lives there, and follows the team.  But (and here’s where I get in trouble) I just can’t get on the Reds bandwagon.  When your best pitcher last season was Bronson Arroyo, you’re in trouble.  The Reds haven’t brought in a decent free agent in years, and I not convinced that this will be the year.  They could get better with a couple of smaller pieces, like Jon Garland or Jason Marquis, but at the end of the day they’ll need their young starters to pitch well beyond their years.  What’s frustrating about the Reds is that they won’t pull the trigger on a big name until these guys consistently fail; they have too much invested.

Chicago – The Cubs are doomed.  It’s just that simple.  The front office can’t seem to get anything right.  And that’s why I think they should lock the check book in the desk this winter.  The team has the talent to win the division, and make a deep playoff run.  They just need to stay healthy, and come together as a unit.  We’ve seen all different kinds of teams win the World Series in the last decade, but I think what stands out most are the teams that squeaked by with chemistry.  Look at the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Cardinals, and I could keep going.  But the point is that they all won with smaller payrolls and an emphasis on chemistry.  And the Cubs can do just that; they will, of course, make some smaller moves to sure up their bench, but other than that, the Cubs brass should just let their previous work speak for itself.

St. Louis – The Cardinals need help in there starting rotation.  Doesn’t that sound crazy?  Joel Piniero, Todd Wellermeyer and Smoltzy have all filed for free agency leaving a HUGE hole behind the wonder twins at the top of the rotation.  I would put good money on the Cardinals making a run at John Lackey to give them an unstoppable one, two and three.  The only other hole that the Cardinals would need to look at would be at third base.  Mark DeRosa held the hot corner last year and will almost definitely be moving on to greener pastures this year.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll give rookie David Freese a look over at third if they can pull in Lackey, but if they get out-bid they could be in on the Adriane Beltre or Chone Figgins talks.

Houston – The Astros will lose at least three major pieces from the team last year.  Valverde will move on, Tejada is likely going to find a home on a contender so that he can end his career with a winner, and LaTroy Hawkins will be one of the most sought after set-up men in the league.  To fill these voids the Astros will turn to the free agent market rather than calling up prospects from the farm.  They will probably make offers to Marco Scutaro, Adam Everett or Orlando Cabrera to replace Tejada.  In the bullpen Rafael Betancourt, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel make sense in Houston.  The problem with the Astros is that they are getting older and need to compete now.  They’ll make some moves before spring training, but if they don’t contend we’ll see a fire-sale like in Pittsburgh, where they sell off pieces to restock their minor league system.

West

Colorado – The Rockies came on incredibly strong at the end of last season based on chemistry.  That should continue, with seven of nine position players returning, and four of five starters.  So what’s not to like?  Well I’ll tell yah.  The bullpen took a massive hit.  They stand to lose Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Rincon and Matt Herges.  They will most likely re-sign one or two of these guys, but will also be taking a look at the list of relievers on the market, and picking up a guy or two.  The bullpen is a big if, but the Rockies of the last couple years have been scrappy, and I think if they can make one or two decent signings, they could challenge for the N.L. Championship next season.

San Francisco – This may not be a well received opinion, but, there is no way that Tim Lincecum should have won the Cy Young this year.  This is, of course, just my opinion but I wanted to throw it out there.  Moving on…the Giants have a great starting rotation, and this is what is going to sustain them through next season.  They couldn’t hit last year, and they most likely won’t hit next year, unless they make a huge move.  The answer?  Jason Bay hitting home runs into San Francisco Bay!  The thought of hitting in front of the Kung Fu Panda for the next 6 or so years has to be enticing to Bay, especially with that starting staff.  The Giant pitchers will be good for many years to come, but if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs they’ll need a Bay…I mean bat.

San Diego – The big news surrounding the Padres this off-season is the possible departure of slugger, Adrian Gonzalez.  That said, the Padres front office doesn’t want to move him, which is just plain silly.  San Diego is about three good development years away from contending, and Gonzalez is only under contract through the end of next season.  If they hope to get ANYTHING of value from his departure it will be via trade.  Atlanta, Boston, New York (N.L.), and Chicago (A.L.) could all be a landing spots for Gonzalez, but the prospect asking price will be incredibly high.

Los Angeles – I would love to see Brad Penny go back and pitch for the Dodgers again this season.  He struggled in Boston for most of last year but I think he’s still got gas in the tank, and could completely dominate in the National League West.  The Dodgers need arms like most teams do, but I think they’ll be checking out the bargain basement deals this winter.  Penny is a name that jumps out; I also think that Pedro Martinez could be on Torre’s short list.  We all know that Pedro and Manny had a torrid love affair and would be stoked to reunite in sunny SoCal.  Add that to the fact that Pedro has already come out and said that he wants to pitch a full season next year, and you’ve got a match made in heaven.

American League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/02/2009 - 9:00 am | Predictions
2 Comments

Everyone and their mom thinks they have some idea about what their favorite baseball team will do this off-season, and I am clearly no different.  Baseball is my sport and I feel like I know it well, so I wanted to share my ideas with you.  The winter meetings are less than a week away, and the possible moves are surely about to start leaking out into the media.  Today I drop the American League list, and barring any permanent damage to my eyes from writing this column for five hours, I’ll bring you the National League tomorrow.  Also make sure you check back here every night starting next Monday.  I’ll be updating nightly from the Winter Meeting craziness in Indianapolis. That’s right, your favorite sports blogger is hitting the meetings baby!  Now, find your team on the list below and let me know what you think!

East

Tampa Bay – Tampa never figures to be one of the teams to land big name free agents, and I don’t believe that’s going to change this off-season.  Oddly though, this is one of the reasons why you have to respect this franchise so much.  The past two years they have been contenders in the A.L. East, even though they are a bottom up team and will most likely fill all of their holes this off-season from within.  That said, they will lose a lot of arms in the bullpen, and they could take from the free agent pool to help in that area.  They’ll look at names like Danys Baez, Juan Rincon, Claudio Vargas and Josh Fogg.  However, don’t look for them to sign any arbitration-eligible type A or B free agents.  The Rays are a team that don’t easily give up their draft picks.

Toronto – The big story surrounding the Blue Jays this off-season will be Roy Halladay.  He just recently announced that he won’t re-sign with Toronto if his contract expires, and he won’t accept a trade once the season starts.  Basically, he’s made sure the new GM up north knows that he best move him before spring training.  The most likely candidates are of course going to be the large market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cubs and Tigers, but the key here is going to be what Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos requests in a Halladay trade.  I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the asking price were too steep for any team to bite.  That would leave an angry Doc on the mound for the Blue Jays this season in a contract year.  Scary.

Baltimore – The Orioles team from last year is almost completely intact.  That, however, is the bad news.  The good news is that they are losing the aging contract of Melvin Mora and can more freely spend on a corner infielder like Nick Johnson or Chone Figgins.  Figgins will most likely be hotly pursued by teams with much looser purse strings than Baltimore, so look for them to go after Johnson hard.  They could also make a run at Juan Uribe, depending on where they want Ty Wigginton to play next year.  He spent some time at both first and third last season.

Boston – Ah, where to begin with my hometown team.  My guess is that Jason Bay won’t come back as the Sox left fielder next year, BUT Boston will sign Matt Holliday in his place.  They will most likely let Bay walk to get the draft pick that the team that signs him will have to give up.  The next issue is shortstop:  today Boston announced that they may move Pedroia over to short and go after a defensive-minded second basemen instead.  Felipe Lopez will most likely be on the radar if that is the case; he will be relatively affordable (probably 3 years at 5 mil a year) and has a career .977 fielding percentage at second.  Now…Halladay, is where it gets tricky.  Would he be fantastic at Fenway?  You bet.  Could the Sox sign him to a long term deal?  Or course.  Will his arm eventually turn gangrenous and fall off in the middle of an inning?  Sure is possible! Halladay has been the ONLY workhorse for the Blue Jays the last couple of years, sometimes throwing 140 pitches a game.  He’s going to wear down eventually and that’s why I think the Red Sox won’t throw everything they have at Toronto to get him.

New York – The Yankees need an outfielder, but I just don’t see them in the race for Bay or Holliday.  The front office put a ton of money into the team last off-season and they will be in great shape for a while.  They will mostly make smaller moves like the Red Sox did last year and let the big names they signed last off-season grow and continue to carry the team.  They may take on a veteran contract like Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad or Garret Anderson, and if they wanted to go a little younger they could look at Austin Kearns, who will come cheaply because he has only played on terrible teams and is undervalued at his position.   They will most likely re-sign Jose Molina to be the back-up catcher and Johnny Damon to work in tandem with Jorge Posada at DH. The Yankees of course will be players in the Halladay craziness but are an unlikely candidate to take the bait.  Aside from the little moves, mentioned previously, I think the Yankee front office will be pretty quiet this winter.

Central

Cleveland – The Indians are an enigma.  They have the look of a team in rebuilding mode but are only a couple of pieces away from competing in a very mediocre division.  My money would be on the Indians making a play for a third basemen and some help in the starting rotation.  If Cleveland can land a name like Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf or Rich Harden, they will have a patchwork but decent one-two punch at the top of the rotation.  They could also take a look at giving Ben Sheets an incentive-laden contract in his post-injury year.  The Indians have a lot of young talent, and my guess is that they’ll play it safe this off-season and see where the chips fall once play begins.  If they are contending at the trade deadline, I think we’ll see them pull out the stops to land a big-time pitcher and make a playoff push.

Kansas City – Well, if you read the blog you know that the Kansas City Royals lost a LOT of games last year, but they have a crazy good pitcher at the top of their rotation.  If they are to come close to contending next year, they are going to need more arms.  Ben Sheets could also be a good option here.  Kansas City is the smallest of markets, but he will only cost a lot if he pitches well. This is because he will almost definitely receive a contract that will pay him based on incentives, like strikeouts, and the number of starts he makes.  The Royals are set on the corners with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but they could also take a look at help in the outfield or the middle infield.  They will look to get younger and better on defense, and therefore, may make a run at Adam Everett or Khalil Greene to solidify their infield.

Detroit – The Tigers have a ton of work to do, and I’m not afraid to say it.  They could potentially lose 2 starters from last year, as well as their closer, set-up man, and DH.  The Tigers, though, are not afraid to spend some dough to fill these holes; they had the fifth highest payroll in the majors last year.  If they can fill the two gaps in the middle infield, perhaps with Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera, and re-sign Rodney to close games, this team could be very dangerous next season.  These are all big ifs of course; the Detroit brass could decide to let those contracts go and turn this into a rebuilding year.  There have been rumors surrounding Miguel Cabrera’s availability, and any deal involving Miggy would land the Tigers a prospect mother-load.  That said, I just don’t see Detroit sitting on the side lines with a starting rotation that is as solid as you’ll find in the league.

Minnesota – The Twins traded away Carlos Gomez to the Brewers because they have a hunch that Denard Span can be the everyday centerfielder in Minnesota, and I think that was a great move.  Span hit .311 last year in almost 600 at bats and will most likely be the lead-off hitter on opening day.  The only hole left by departing free agents will be at third base, now that Joe Crede has decided to hit the open market.  We may see the Twins go after Mark DeRosa or give Adrian Beltre a shot.  Aside from that, the field is pretty much set for the Twins.  The biggest issue facing Minny this year will be starting pitching.  As last season ended, we saw the emergence of Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing.  But, to compete in that division and make a deep playoff run, the Twins may need to go out and get a back of the rotation type of guy.  They’ll take a look at guys like Livan Hernandez, Todd Wellemeyer, and Vincente Padilla; they may also kick the tires on some old guys like Pedro, Petitte, or Jarrod Washburn.

Chicago – The White Sox don’t actually have a lot of work to do.  They’ve already signed Omar Vizquel to play short and traded to get Mark Teahan, who can play any outfield position but will most likely spend most of his time in left.  Their starting rotation is solid, barring injury, and they have a great closer in Bobby Jenks.  The only position that Chicago needs to look at is catcher, and there aren’t that many impact backstops on the market right now.  They may look at Torrealba from Colorado or Josh Bard from Washington, but neither one of these guys scream Chicago to me.  Most likely they’ll give their rookie catcher Tyler Flowers a look.  He hit .297 with 15 home runs in the minors last year.  If the White Sox decide to make a move other than at catcher, they’ll most likely look for some help spelling DJ Carrasco and Scott Linebrink in the bullpen.  They may also add some depth on the bench to back up the corner infielders.

West

Oakland – Honest to god, I had no idea who Andrew Bailey was when he won the Rookie of the Year award two weeks ago.  I admit it-  I just completely overlooked him.  Upon further review…holy crap, this kid is good. He whiffed 91 batters in 83 innings and racked up 26 saves.  I think it’s safe to say that the A’s have the closer role locked up for a couple years.  And while the bullpen may be set for a while, the rest of the team is in some serious trouble.  The A’s are going to rely heavily on their young players to make an impact this year.  They are losing the aging contracts of Nomar Garciaparra and Brett Tomko and most likely will be looking for a veteran bat to help the youngsters out.  The most likely candidate would be Nick Johnson.  He fits into Billy Beane’s money-ball philosophy and could be a bargain if the A’s can convince his agent that there are durability issues.

Seattle – The Mariners have already landed their major prize this off-season in Ken Griffey Jr.  He was signed so that fans will come back to watch what will most likely be his final year as a player.  His new deal has incentives based on fan attendance and his ability to stay on the active roster for the whole year.  So, clearly the front office isn’t expecting Grif to hit 50 home runs this season.  So where’s the pop coming from?  Most likely Russell Branyan will re-sign, but if he doesn’t, look for the Mariners to make a run at Hideki Matsui.  It would be a perfect fit for Godzilla; he would be closer to his fan base in Japan, and it would put him on a roster with another of the greatest Asian-born players in the history of the league.  It also benefits Seattle.  The main reason the Branyan deal hasn’t been done is Russell’s insistence on a multi-year contract.  The Mariners are looking to offer no more than a two-year deal, which is perfect for the injury-prone Matsui.

Texas – I’m still surprised that the Rangers were in the playoff picture towards the close of the season, but they proved they were the real deal.  I think the Rangers are going to build on the success of last year and challenge the Angels for the division title next year.  The Texas bigwigs don’t have a lot to do this off-season, and I think that will benefit them in the long run.  They are returning all of their position players from last season, as well as the top arms in their rotation.  I think if you see the Rangers go after anyone, it will be a DH- Vlad Guerrero perhaps?  The Angels denied Vlad salary arbitration, and the Rangers would love to get an angry Guerrero into their line-up.  The Rangers could also use a starter.  Joel Piniero would fit perfectly into this rotation.  He is a ground ball pitcher, and in a ballpark like Arlington, keeping the ball on the ground is paramount.

Los Angeles – Last, but certainly not least, are the Angels.  They are in an interesting spot this off-season.  They are arguably losing more important pieces than any other team.  John Lackey and Chone Figgins have filed for free agency, leaving the Angels with some major holes to fill.  I believe that the spot at third will be filled via free agency, and the hole at the top of the rotation will be filled via a trade.  Did I mention earlier in the article that Roy Halladay happens to be on the market?  Now, I still don’t think Halladay will move, but if he does, I think the team most likely to get him will be the Angels.  Hear me out.  The Angels have a winning culture (which Halladay likes), they can pay him (which Halladay likes), and they are a warm weather city (which Halladay likes).  Now the big question is, do the Angels have the prospects and Major League talent to land him?  I think they do.  With a package including Fabio Martinez Mesa (204 Ks in 136 inn. last year, with a 3.03 career minor league ERA), Hank Conger (.296/.350/.464, 11HRs, 68RBI in the minors last season), and a major league arm like Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders, I think the Angels could come away with the biggest prize of the off-season.