Category Archives: Predictions

Loathing Luongo’s Linguistics

  By Chris Speziale | 06/13/2011 - 4:43 pm | Musings, Predictions
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Roberto Luongo may have just disturbed the sleeping bear....

Roberto Luongo may have made the gravest mistake of his career on Friday.  After Vancouver’s 1-0 victory at the Rogers Centre, the Canuck goalie made comments in his post-game press conference criticizing his Bruins counterpart.  Tim Thomas played his usual aggressive style in Game 5, and it cost him dearly in the final period of play.  With over 13 minutes remaining, a hard shot off the end boards from the right point deflected right to the waiting stick of Maxim Lapierre, who had all day to bury the puck in the back of the net.  Thomas had been out of the paint, trying to cut down the angle on the shot from the point, and it led to the game’s only goal.

 

The issue at hand isn’t at all about Thomas being out of position, but rather how are Thomas’ teammates going to take to the Vancouver goalie calling him out?  On a scale of “One to Rex Ryan”, Luongo’s comments probably rank right around a six.  In reference to making the save that Thomas couldn’t, “an easy save for me, but if you’re wandering out and aggressive like [Thomas] is, that’s going to happen.”  It wasn’t the grandest of shots, but the media heard it.  The players heard it.  And the fans heard it.

 

If you think this physical Bruins team is going to stand by and let another team take shots at the heart and soul of their team, you’ve got another think coming.  The B’s have played well at home (as Luongo could certainly tell you) and will need to force the Canucks to play their style when the puck drops at TD Garden tonight.  Boston has continuously started off on the wrong foot when hitting the road for Vancouver in this series, and they know it.

 

If the Stanley Cup is going to come back to Boston for the first time since 1972, the Bruins will need to establish their aggressive style early and hope that they can carry it through six more periods of play.  The bad news for Vancouver?  They may have just given the Bruins that extra little fire to carry them through.  Remember what happened after Nathan Horton went down with his concussion; the Bruins played inspired hockey for the rest of that Game 3 and into Game 4.  Now you’re messing with Papa bear, and Papa bear and his teammates won’t take it lying down.

Obituary: 2010 New England Patriots

  By Chris Speziale | 10/08/2010 - 8:04 pm | Musings, Predictions
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It'll be halloween when Randy comes back to Gillette. But that purple outfit won't be a costume, it'll be a nightmarish reminder of what they let go.

Well, it’s been a while since I’ve thrown something up on the site. But I can be silent no longer. My beloved New England Patriots made, I think, one of the most heinous mistakes in a decade. Think back, if you will, to 2004 when we were talking about the Pats as a dynasty. They had won 3 of the last 5 Superbowls, and they started the season as the favorite to make it 4 in 6. Well, of course, that didn’t happen. New England won the division, wrecked the Jags in the Wild Card round before getting walloped themselves by the Broncos in Denver. This is when it started. The naysayers descended on the New England clubhouse. Deion Branch held out and was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for a first rounder. And everyone wondered who would catch passes from Tom Brady. The answer wasn’t the one that New England fans expected; the Pats brass held firm and kept the receiving corp the way it was. The 2006 leading receiver for the Patriots was Reche Caldwell. RECHE CALDWELL! He finished with just under 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. And despite all of that, the Patriots made it all the way to Indy, where they lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in the AFC title game.

 

Something had to change. And who better to make that change than Randy Moss. Fresh off the plane from Oakland, he was talking a big game. He yammered on and on about how this was a great fit for him because he wanted to win a championship. He had the right attitude, he looked motivated and in shape, and it appeared that the Pats had just completely changed their offense. Tom Brady was (and still is) the king of the screen. Now he had a deep target, and boy did he use it. All Moss did in his first season with the Patriots was catch 98 passes for over 1400 yards and 23 touchdowns. Are you kidding me? And yes, everyone and their mom knows what happened at the end of the 18-1 season. The helmet catch, the sieve that was the Patriots offensive line, and the NRA spokesman, Plaxico Burress, who stole the perfect season from New England. You may have thought, like I did, that that was it for Randy. That things would have gone sour in the Patriots locker room. That he’d whine and complain. After all, this is the guy whose own ego and complacent attitude got him run out of his two previous homes. But no, to everyone’s surprise, he came back the next season ready to roll. And had Brady not gone down with that knee injury, we could be talking right now about the Perfect Patriots of 2008. But he did, and even still, with Cassel at quarterback and Wes Welker emerging as the best possession receiver in the NFL, he had over a thousand yards and more touchdowns than anyone on the team.

 

Randy Moss is a hall of famer and will go down as the greatest deep threat receiver in the history of the NFL. No one will challenge his single season touchdown receptions record for years and years. And now he’s gone. Not only is it sad from a nostalgic Pats fan perspective, it straight up just killed the season for the Patriots, and I’ll tell you why. New England could basically do whatever they wanted on offense when Randy was between the lines. They could run him out deep to open the middle for Welker or Edelman, they could send him on crossing routes, they could put him in motion to confuse the secondary, the possibilities were endless. The passing game was lethal, and Brady was a masterful wizard running it. After a quarter of passing the ball, the Pats could run play-action for the rest of game. Opposing defenses never knew what hit ‘em. Not only could he catch just about anything that was thrown his way, Randy made people better. An example: the 2007 Patriots ran the ball for over 1800 yards, with Maroney (overrated), Morris (never could get it together to have a break-out year), and Faulk (much better catching the ball out of the backfield). You could never load up the box to stop the run on these guys, because Moss would absolutely murder you down the field. Cut back to the 2010 team with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the same unexplosive Morris, and some undrafted kid out of Division II Chadron State. You can essentially count the run game out. Which leads us to the now Moss-less receiving corp.

 

Welker will now be the focal point of this Patriots offense, and every team will know it. Will he still have over a hundred catches this season? You bet he will. Problem is—with Moss gone, the opposing secondary can bring safety help over the top to cut down on his yards after the catch. This’ll limit the amount of first downs New England is able to get without relying on that weak running attack to convert on short yardage scenarios. I’ve read a lot over the last couple of days about the Patriots trading draft picks for a different team-first wide receiver, and every article just makes me lol (that’s right Mr. Anderson-Hewitt, I put it in a column). The day that Bill Belichick trades away draft picks in the middle of a season is the day I streak naked through Times Square. It’s just not going to happen. And that leaves us with Welker, Edelman, and Brandon Tate. Has Tate shown that he has the talent and speed to be an impact player in the NFL? Hells yes, but that doesn’t mean that you can count on him to be your deep guy down the field. And until he proves himself capable of filling Moss’ shoes, the Patriots are in a whole heap of trouble.

The Eagle has…oh no, I’m not using that cliche.

  By Chris Speziale | 04/06/2010 - 5:53 pm | Musings, Predictions
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So, Donovan McNabb is a Redskin.  Well that certainly changes things now, doesn’t it?  McNabb going to D.C. has seriously changed the landscape of the NFC East, as well as, the draft board.  Washington was rumored to be interested in one of the three elite quarterbacks in the NFL draft.  Well, not anymore! In essence, a team at the bottom of the draft now has a shot at a quarterback because the Skins will pass.  With all that draft maneuvering, the McNabb trade will leave its mark on a lot of teams in the upcoming season, but none more than the Eagles and Redskin’s.

Boy, it's gonna look a lot different when he's hoisting those fingers wearing a maroon uni. Get used to it Philadelphia.

Let’s first look at Washington, because—well, we start where…guh…the Eagle landed. Yah, I did it—moving on. This is clearly a game changer for the Redskins.  They get a pro-bowl caliber quarterback a shade after his prime in exchange for, what?  A second round draft pick in 2010 and a third or fourth rounder in 2011.  Two picks, in the later rounds, for a talented veteran signal caller?  I’ll take it.  Plus, the Redskins still have four picks in the upcoming draft; one inside the top 5.  The Redskins are most likely going to take an offensive tackle with that first round pick, and my guess would be that they make a run at a couple of young wide receivers in the later rounds. And what we’ve seen McNabb do with young talent is astounding.  If you look at the seasons that DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek had last year, you’ll notice that he thrives with a group of young guns around him.  Washington would be wise to look at McNabb’s past, as they begin to revamp this team.  All that said—I think that the Redskins compete next year, maybe not for the division, but I do think that they have planted themselves firmly ahead of the Eagles.  The Philadelphia brass are going to be in some hot water, when Washington rolls into Philly next season, and lays a lickin on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has installed Kevin Kolb as their starter for next season.  Kolb, the 25 year old, Texas native, has thrown a whopping 130 career passes.  This compared to the nearly 5000 thrown by McNabb.  Can anyone say learning curve?  Kolb started two games last season for Andy Reid’s team.  The first of which, was against the now defending Superbowl Champion New Orleans Saints.  His team got wrecked.  And yes, I know that he played well—except for the 3 interceptions he threw!  But where exactly is everyone seeing this talent? That’s what I want to know.  In his next game he threw for 327 yards and two scores…..AGAINST KANSAS CITY!  Kolb is going to be surrounded with loads of young talent, and that will make him a decent starter in the NFL, at best.  However, he’ll certainly not be a standout for the Eagles, who will be looking up at Donovan and the Redskins for most—if not all—of next season.

But what I really want to talk about is how this deal went down.  Think about it for just one second.  McNabb, a year after throwing for 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns (in 14 games no less), gets traded to a division rival.  A DIVISION RIVAL!  This is ludicrous—and clearly sent one simple message: the Eagles thought McNabb was done.  Andy Reid came out at the end of the season and stated that Donovan would be their guy.  The Eagles then, not so secretly, started to shop him around.  Then came the suitors; Oakland, Buffalo, and St. Louis all stated at least a little interest.  St. Louis, after evaluating its options, pulled away from the negotiations.  Oakland offered the 39th pick in this year’s draft, and laid in wait.  And when you get right down to it, Buffalo was NEVER going to give up draft picks.  No one even saw the Redskins coming. (Side Note: I had a conversation with my good friend Chris at a bar last week and we discussed this.  He’s a big Buffalo fan, and didn’t know what to think about McNabb as a Bill.  The more I thought about it, the more I liked the idea.  Check it: You bring in McNabb for three years.  Draft Terrell Pryor out of The Ohio State University next year, and have McNabb mentor him.  McNabb makes the Bills at least a little more relevant over the next three, and then you have your quarterback of the future waiting to take over when McNabb rides off into the sunset.  But I digress.)  Washington made the best offer; the 37th pick in this year’s draft.  And the rest is history, as the cliché goes. But something just seems off about the whole thing.  The Philly bigwigs made a point to say that they went with Washington because they wanted to respect McNabb’s wishes.  Well here’s an idea: DON’T TRADE HIM!  He wanted to remain an Eagle! He wanted to finish his career in Philadelphia!  But this is a business, and the only thing that makes sense is that they clearly didn’t have faith that McNabb could get the job done.  And now—the conspiracy theory: They sent him to a division rival because they knew he would fail, thus taking one team out of that four team race, and increasing the chances of an Eagles Division Title! Whaaaaaat?!?

No disrespect to Andy Reid, but maybe this is one’s on him.  Maybe it was the coach who couldn’t put that final nail in the coffin.  Every Philly fan has griped about McNabb in the past, and they have every right too.  It’s their team, and they want to see that team win.  But here’s what I don’t get: he did.  He won a LOT of games for the Eagles.  In some cases he singlehandedly willed the team to victory.  He took them to 5 NFC Championship games, in his eleven years at the helm.  Did he win the big one?  No.  Could a change of scenery be the spark that finally puts him over the edge?  Who knows.  What I do know, is that a VERY good quarterback just got a VERY large chip on his shoulder. In two years, with an influx of new talent, McNabb could be hoisting the Lombardi trophy.  This reminds me of someone…someone in the Hall of Fame.  What’s that name?  Oh yeah!  John Elway, a quarterback with a quarter tank of gas left, but looking to prove something.  Elway’s stat line through his first eleven seasons looked like this: 34,246 YD’s, 183 TD’s, and 167 INT’s.  McNabb, through that same timeline: 32,873 YD’s, 216 TD’s, and 100 INT’s.  Um?  Wow.  I’m sure most people didn’t know that McNabb had thrown more touchdowns with fewer interceptions to start his career, than the Bronco’s quarterback of old.  Elway carried that “can’t win the big game” stigma around for a long time.  And Mike Shanahan was right there losing with him.  But they turned it around.  Big.  Elway went on to win two Superbowls with Shanahan manning the sidelines.  Now, the cosmos have aligned to bring these two super powers together, and Coach Shanahan knows what to do with a guy like McNabb. That should be something that leaves the rest of the NFC East—Eagles included—shaking in their shoulder pads.

Ock Mock

  By Chris Speziale | 03/23/2010 - 12:00 pm | Impress Your Friends, Predictions
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Yeah, it’s been a while. Sorry about that. Life comes at you fast, right? Anyway—we’re about two weeks away from the start of the MLB regular season, and that means Fantasy Baseball is in full swing. I figured there was no better way to jump back into the blogosphere than hitting up the Fantasy Sport that bore all fantasy sports.

I have always been a HUGE fan of fantasy baseball—going all the way back to live drafts at my Uncle Gerald’s house in Tewksbury, Massachusetts. My uncle ran the league and put all the stats together himself. Every week when we would see each other at my grandfather’s house, he would have print outs with all the standings and player stats from the previous week. Now, when you’re 9 years old, it’s all about picking up your favorite players so that you can root for them all year long. It was always cool to win and have the best team, but in the end for a kid it was all about the players. I remember visiting Cooperstown one summer almost immediately following my Uncle’s draft; I was so excited about my team that I had to go to the card shop and buy the card of every player I had drafted. That’s what it was all about, but as you get older it’s all about smoking everyone. Don’t lie—I know all the fantasy freaks out there are nodding their heads. You want to beat up on your friends, your family, or the complete strangers that you draft with in some random league—that’s just the way it is.

But, why the change? I, personally, think it’s about the growth of the competitive spirit. When you’re 7 years old, you don’t compete with your fellow 3rd graders to see who color best inside the lines, but as soon as you hit middle and high school you’ve surely become a cog in the competitive machine. You want to be tops in your class, you want the best role in the school play, you want to make the football team or cheerleading squad—everything revolves around competition, so why shouldn’t the same ring true in Fantasy sports?

Fantasy sports have exploded over the past decade, and the technology behind them has also improved greatly. Gone are the days of the paper print out—bring on the draft kits, scouting reports, insiders, and mock drafts, the last of which will be today’s topic. There is tons of info out there, in tons of different formats, but I think the most helpful is the mock draft. It provides you an opportunity to see how the average baseball fan is drafting. It also provides you an opportunity to see how your own drafting strategy will play out. I ran a mock draft for myself on ESPN.com this afternoon, and I’d like to share a couple of general observations. First though, because it will come up later, take a look at my team:

C Matt Wieters
1B Justin Morneau
2B Rickie Weeks
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B/SS Casey McGehee
1B/3B Alex Gordon
OF Andre Ethier
OF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Chris Coghlan
OF Chris Young
OF Kyle Blanks
UTIL Conor Jackson
SP Zack Grienke
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Tim Hudon
SP Rich Harden
SP Ted Lilly
SP Ben Sheets
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Andrew Bailey
RP Carlos Marmol
BE Magglio Ordonez
BE Orlando Cabrera
BE Phil Hughes

Not bad huh? What’s even cooler is the new feature added to ESPN drafts if you’re an “insider” like myself. They will calculate the league’s finish, based on projected numbers for each player drafted on each fantasy team in real-time. And the collection of guys you see listed above was good enough for second place with 78 points. Of course projections are often wrong in some way or another, and I guarantee you that none of the players will perform exactly as “expected.”

While projections are nice, the real reason you do a mock draft is to see where players are taken. Every fantasy owner comes into his or her draft with a strategy; most likely this strategy is based on gut feelings with a little statistical research mixed in. My strategy in most years is to draft high on potential, take a couple of injury risks and make sure you nail down at least 3 sure things. But we’ll get more into that later. Let’s look at some of the surprises:

  • Johan Santana fell to the 5th round – A year ago, this would have been a complete joke. He has a ton of value, but is taken late because he falls into the injury risk category. If you are nervous to take him early, make sure that you snag him if he falls to you after round five. Imagine taking Halladay in the first round and having Santana come to you in round 6. That’s a hell of a 1-2 punch.
  • There were no relief pitchers taken until round 6 – Except for Jonathan Papelbon by me in the third round. But that’s the thing! I never would have known that relievers were going to be late round pick-ups unless I had done the mock. I took Paps early because I believe the Red Sox are going to have some trouble scoring runs this year, and therefore will win a lot of close games. In my delusional Red Sox crazed head, he has a chance to lead the league in saves.
  • By the end of round 4, all of the elite catchers were off the board – Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann were gone by round 5. Lesson learned? If you want any of those guys, you have take ‘em WAAAAY early. I chose to use one of my high ceiling guys for the C position and landed Wieters in the 8th round. The Orioles catcher could end up being a steal, if he can produce the way he’s expected to.
  • People are scared of injuries – Aside from Johan Santana—Jake Peavy (10th Rnd.), Juan Rivera (17th Rnd.), Ryan Doumit (17th Rnd.) and a host of others were taken well later than normal, because they’re coming off a year in which they were injured for a majority of the season. You should make a list of guys that were injured in the previous year that you might have some interest in, and then refuse to take any of them….kidding of course, but be careful. I wouldn’t take a player coming off a major injury before the 10th round.

I’ve clearly learned a lot. But there is a ton more; you could analyze the hell out of a fantasy draft. But what I think is most important is to stick with your strategy. So how’d I do? Well, as I said, it’s all about my strategy. The high ceiling young guys? Check. See Weiters (8th Rnd.), Casey McGehee (22nd Rnd.), Alex Gordon (19th Rnd.), Kyle Blanks (18th Rnd.), Wandy Rodriguez (9th Rnd.), and Phil Hughes (25th Rnd.). The sure things? Oh yeah, got ‘em. Hanley Ramirez (1st Rnd.), Zack Grienke (2nd Rnd.), and Justin Morneau (4th Rnd.). Now, I know that Morneau could also be considered an “injury risk”, but for the sake of this argument roll with me. The injury guys? Picked them up—Icy Hot and all. Rickie Weeks (10th Rnd.), Tim Hudson (12th Rnd.), and Ben Sheets (21st Rnd.). And what’s great about my team is that the “experts” probably sold the young and injured guys short. Meaning, of course, that my team totes would’ve finished first…if it hadn’t been a mock.  But alas, it was.  That is what mocks are good for.  Use them as an outline, get online, stick to your guns and by the end of the regular season, you’ll surely be hoisting that fake (sometimes imaginary), golden trophy.

Superbowl LXXXVI

  By Chris Speziale | 02/11/2010 - 9:54 am | Musings, Predictions
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On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!).  The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com.  The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years.  Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it.  Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts.  29!  That’s more than half of the active roster!  My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season.  When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game.  That’s way too high.  But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night.  As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech.  The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport.  The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade.  But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.

Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl

The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess.  I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up.  But how does it apply to the Saints?  Well I’m glad you asked:  the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl.  With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere.  The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing.  Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.

The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s.  You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few.  And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title.  Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match.  Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.

The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year.  They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns.  That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL.  And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter.  The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat.  Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time.  Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s.  The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.

Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP.  On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games.  But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs.  Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl.  And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads.  He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old.  Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31.  With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land.  But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level.  Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree.  But, back to the Superbowl?  I just don’t see it.  With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.

A Bowl Game a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

  By Chris Speziale | 12/17/2009 - 4:15 pm | Predictions
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When I was ten, I had a gambling problem.  It’s my dad’s fault, really.  He has worked for a big hospital in Boston for a whole bunch years now, and every year they would do a Bowl Poll.  It’s easy; you just pick the winner against the spread in every bowl game.  It was twenty bucks per entry, and every single year my father, brother and I would fill out our little scorecards and my dad would bring them into his office.  The twenty bucks came out of our own pockets, so there was a great matter of pride involved.  Here’s the problem: I was ten!  I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I don’t think my picks ever finished in the top ten.  But, that’s what I think of now every time the bowl season comes around.  This year the games kick off crazy early, with the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday the 19th.  Or course, the purpose of the bowl games is to crown a college football champion, and this year all games give way to Pasadena. The National Championship will pit Alabama against Texas.  Both teams are undefeated (along with Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. Cough, Cough), but due to the BCS system, this will be the defacto title game.  Here’s the rub: You can only watch so many of these games before your head explodes.  So which ones should you keep an eye on?  I’ll give you a game a day, and highlight a couple that I think you shouldn’t miss.

December 19th 8PM (ESPN), St. Petersburg Bowl – Rutgers vs. Central Florida, this could be Rutgers last game in the Big East, they’re looking to win big to prove to the Big 10 bigwigs that they can handle the pressure’s of a tougher schedule.

December 20th 8:30PM (ESPN), R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee, this is the only game on the 20th….that’s all I have to say about that.

December 22nd 8PM (ESPN), MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – You want points?  Check this out: BYU vs. Oregon St.  The Cougars average a shade under 35 points per game, and the Beavers score 32 a game.  This will be an offensive crazyfest!  That’s right, I just coined a new term.  These two teams light up the score board, but they get it done using two different philosophies.  Oregon State will use a mixed attack and rely on J. Rodgers. Who is J. Rodgers you ask?  It’s TWO guys, James and Jacquizz Rodgers.  James is the number one receiver for the Beavers, who has caught 87 balls for over a thousand yards and 9 TD’s.  Jacquizz is the number one running back who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and has scored 20 touchdowns.  On the other side, BYU’s aerial attacked is one of the best in the country. Quarterback Max Hall has thrown for over 3,300 yards and has 30 touchdowns this year.  Hall has a ton of weapons to work with; nine of his receivers have caught more than 15 balls this year.  Oregon State is favored by 2.5 points in this game, and that’s a no-brainer.  Usually in a game like this, I would highlight the defense; whichever defense makes a stand will win the contest.  But, this game comes down to conferences.  Oregon State plays in the supremely competitive Pac 10 and BYU plays in the much weaker Mountain West Conference.  For that reason I’m taking Oregon State (-2.5).

December 23rd 8PM (ESPN), San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Utah vs. Cal, it’s the only game on this date, but it’s going to be a good one.  Another Mountain West team trying to prove itself, and Cal will be a tough test.

December 24th 8PM (ESPN), Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Nevada vs. SMU, only game…check it.

December 26th 8PM (ESPN), Emerald Bowl – USC was picked by many in the preseason to play for a national title, but Pete Carroll picked a freshmen to quarterback the team, and he has yet to prove himself.  In this game, that freshman, will take on the Eagles of Boston College.  BC finished it’s season 8-4, with a 5-3 tally in conference.  This is only the fourth year the Eagles have played in the ACC, and they are proving they can play with the big boys.  They racked up victories against Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina State, and Maryland in conference.  Conversely, USC’s season wasn’t just disappointing but truly devastating.  The Trojans finished 6th in the Pac-10 after Oregon, and Oregon State emerged, and took the reins in what was supposed to be USC’s conference.  But when you put all of that aside, the Eagles have a stout defense, and that makes this game a must watch.  USC is a flashy team, they score points at will, and have a ton of weapons.  But, BC’s run defense has held opponents to 3 yards per carry in its twelve games, and has allowed only 19 points per game.  The Trojans are favored by a touchdown in this game, but that’s too much.  While USC wins, the Eagles beat the spread, in what will be on of the best games of the bowl season.

December 27th 8:30PM (ESPN), Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson, see C.J. Spiller take out his aggression on the Wildcats.  Seriously, why wasn’t this guy invited to the Heisman presentation?

December 28th 5PM (ESPN), AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Texas A&M vs. Georgia, winning one for the puppy.  The Georgia mascot has passed away.  Look for the Bulldogs to come out flying to honor the late pup.

December 29th 8PM (ESPN), Champs Sports Bowl – Miami vs. Wisconsin, this should be entertaining.  Two great defenses, but give the advantage to Miami. This game is being played in Florida.

December 30th 8PM (ESPN), Pacific Life Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona, last chance to see Ndamukong Suh as a college player.  He’ll be a top ten next April for sure.

December 31st 2PM (CBS), Brut Sun Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Stanford, I love, love, love Toby Gerhart.  I think he has the potential to be a pro-bowl caliber fullback or tight end in the NFL.

January 1st 8PM (FOX), Allstate Sugar Bowl – This is the bizarro National Title Game.  It was tough to pick a game from New Years Day; if you are in it for the long haul make sure you check out the Rose Bowl at 4:30 before this one.  Oregon vs. Ohio State will be a classic, but it’s no Sugar Bowl.  I detailed in an earlier column that Cincinnati had a shot to play against either Alabama or Florida for the National Title if Texas lost any game to close the season.  They didn’t, but Cincy still gets an opportunity to take down one-loss Florida in the Sugar Bowl.  Not a lot of people are giving the Bearcats a chance in this one, but I think any team that can score like Tony Pike and the boys has a shot.  Cincinnati’s offense averages 40 a game, and while Florida does have a strong defense, this game will probably be a shoot out.  It’s in a controlled environment that will be incredibly loud, and the Bearcats are angry.  Brian Kelly fled the team for a more lucrative, high profile position at Notre Dame.  The Bearcat players have called out their old coach, and are promising a competitive game against Florida.  The odds makers in Las Vegas are giving Cincy 10.5 points in this one, which is absolutely crazy.  Not only do I think they make the spread, but they will beat the Gators in New Orleans 48-45.  Alabama exposed the Gators weakness in the SEC Championship game; running screens and hitting the TE over the middle.  Cincy has one of the best weapons to exploit that weakness. Mardy Gilyard is one of the best, and biggest wide receivers in the game; they’ll use him on quick outs to the sideline and let him run people over.  Look for him to have a big game in what will most definitely be a fantastic upset in college football.

January 2nd 2PM (ESPN), PapaJohns.com Bowl – South Carolina vs. UConn, the Huskies are out-matched in this one, but UConn coach Randy Edsall was thrust into the national spotlight when Notre Dame came knocking.  Brian Kelly ended up with the job, but Edsall now has something to prove.  Can he out-coach Steve Spurrier in this bowl game, and stick it to the Irish? Look out.

January 4th 8PM (FOX), Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs. TCU, this is another battle of undefeated teams.  Not sure what to say about it.  Two great teams that don’t get enough respect looking to knock each other around.

January 5th 8PM (FOX), FedEx Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs. Iowa, tops in the ACC takes on second place in the Big Ten.  This will be a slow, methodical, defense oriented game.  But, it’s the only one on the fifth, so enjoy.

January 6th 7PM (ESPN), GMAC Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Troy, I have no idea how this game made it so far into the bowl slate.

January 7th 8PM (ABC), BCS National Championship Game – I could try and handicap this one, but really I have NO clue who wins.  Both of these teams deserve a shot to play for the title and I think it will be a classic game.  The Tide will use Heisman winner Mark Ingram to run the Longhorns into the ground, but Texas has some guy named Colt McCoy.  The Texas quarterback isn’t having the greatest of seasons, but he’s done enough to get his team back to the title game.  A lot of the media pundits are picking Alabama to win this one because Texas hasn’t blown people away this year, but that’s because the Longhorn defense is much improved.  I think this is going to be a close one, and I’ve always been told that if you’re on the fence you should go with the points, so I’m taking Texas (+4) to beat the spread.  The winner of the game, however, I could never predict.

National League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/03/2009 - 12:32 pm | Predictions
2 Comments

As promised, here is the next installment in the Hot Stove saga.  Feels like Twilight, doesn’t it!? Ick.  Anyway, please feel free to give this a read, and let me know what you think.  And remember to check back starting next Monday night for analysis from the Winter Meetings.  I’ll break-down the deals of the day, and at some point I’d like to do a running blog, but we’ll just have to wait and see if I can work that out.  Without further ado:

East

New York – We start our trip around the National League with the Mets.  New York has a lot of players hitting free agency, including Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, but those aren’t the major issues facing Los Mets.  The biggest hole is in left field where Gary Sheffield roamed for New York when he wasn’t injured last season.  The Mets will most definitely be in the Holliday and Bay sweepstakes and will probably make a more serious run at Holliday.  Holliday, as one of my readers pointed out, hits better in the National League than the American.  There have also been rumors circling that the Mets are looking to trade Luis Castillo.  A possible landing spot for him would be the Dodgers, who lose Orlando Hudson this off-season.  If they can’t land one of the big free agents look for them to make a move with L.A. for one of their young outfielders.

Florida – The Marlins are in pretty good shape going into the 2010 season.  They have last years Rookie of the Year in left, and a stable of good young arms to rival any team in the league.  They traded away Jeremy Hermida to Boston, which probably means that they’re comfortable with Cody Ross in right. So what are they going to be doing in the coming months?  Perhaps shopping for a corner infielder?  They are losing Nick Johnson and will be looking for some OBP to replace him.  I see Kevin Millar as a good fit here.  We know the Marlins budget won’t allow them to offer a large contract, and Millar won’t be looking for big bucks at age 38.  He is a good clubhouse guy and a great leader.  And that, is something the Marlins covet.

Atlanta – I think the Braves this winter are going to focus on in house matters.  Martin Prado is due for an extension, and they have two big names hitting free agency that they are going to try and lock up.  Adam LaRoche is one of them, and Rafael Soriano is the other.  They signed Billy Wagner to close which signals the end of the Mike Gonzalez experiment.  Gonzalez was good, but allowed a lot of runners to reach base; it appears that Wagner did enough in his short stint with Boston last year to convince the Atlanta brass that he could handle the job.  The Braves may also take a look at some of the under the radar corner outfielders to replace Garret Anderson, like Austin Kearns or Xavier Nady.

Philadelphia – The Phillies have already been busy this off-season.  They signed Brian Schnieder right out from under the Mets noses, which strengthens an already steady stable of backstops for the Phillies.  If the N.L. Champs are going to make a splash in free agency it will be looking for bullpen help.  Everyone knows that Charlie Manuel had trouble picking his closer during the playoffs this past year and I think that will be Philadelphia’s top priority.  They’ll take a look at Mike Gonzalez, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano.  The interesting thing about this list is that almost all of these guys played for division rivals last year, which means that those teams may try and drive up the price.  That’s why I think Valverde is their guy.

Washington – My advice to Ted Lerner and Stan Kasten?  Break the bank!  I had the pleasure of seeing RFK Stadium this summer and have to say, it is a fantastic place to watch baseball…if your team doesn’t suck.  The Nationals only need three pieces to contend.  Yes, yes I know that’s actually a lot of pieces, BUT it’s doable.  They need a power hitting outfielder, a closer, and a starter.  Simple: Rick Ankiel, Kevin Gregg, and Ardolis Chapman.  Ankiel and Gregg will come relatively cheaply; they are young-ish and they both have something to prove.  If Chapman is as good as they say he is, and they’re saying he’s reeeeeeeal good, he could be the number one starter on that staff for the next 10 years.  Now put Strasberg in the number two spot, with Lannan and Zimmerman at three and four!  Chapman is an enigma, and because he’d provoke curiosity, he’d put butts in the seats. That’s what the Nationals need right now; they have no revenue coming in from ticket sales or merchandising.  They could sign these three guys for a combined cost of 14 million a season and they only lose one draft pick.  It’s a no brainer; I should be the Nationals’ GM.

Central

Milwaukee – The Brewers stand to lose a lot of pieces this off-season, if they don’t come to terms with their slew of free agents.  Most notably would be Jason Kendall; the Milwaukee catcher would be sorely missed if he decides to sign elsewhere.  The Brewers saw the emergence of two young players last year and have the makings of a team that could be good for a long time. To compete next year, however, they will probably go after some pitching help; someone to help in the rotation would be the key.  For this team I like Erik Bedard or Kelvim Escobar – two guys that are coming off injury, looking to prove themselves, make sense for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh – I just…well, I really have no idea what to say about the Pirates.  They don’t have any free agent holes to fill, which is nice.  And they have a young team, which is nice.  But the Pirates seem to be constantly in a state of rebuilding, and I think that until they pull above .500 for a full season we’ll see Pittsburgh play out the first half of the season, and then sell off every valuable piece.  That’s all I really have to say about that.

Cincinnati – I have to tread lightly here.  My fiancée (the lovely and wonderful Laura Gale) grew up in Cincinnati; her family still lives there, and follows the team.  But (and here’s where I get in trouble) I just can’t get on the Reds bandwagon.  When your best pitcher last season was Bronson Arroyo, you’re in trouble.  The Reds haven’t brought in a decent free agent in years, and I not convinced that this will be the year.  They could get better with a couple of smaller pieces, like Jon Garland or Jason Marquis, but at the end of the day they’ll need their young starters to pitch well beyond their years.  What’s frustrating about the Reds is that they won’t pull the trigger on a big name until these guys consistently fail; they have too much invested.

Chicago – The Cubs are doomed.  It’s just that simple.  The front office can’t seem to get anything right.  And that’s why I think they should lock the check book in the desk this winter.  The team has the talent to win the division, and make a deep playoff run.  They just need to stay healthy, and come together as a unit.  We’ve seen all different kinds of teams win the World Series in the last decade, but I think what stands out most are the teams that squeaked by with chemistry.  Look at the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Cardinals, and I could keep going.  But the point is that they all won with smaller payrolls and an emphasis on chemistry.  And the Cubs can do just that; they will, of course, make some smaller moves to sure up their bench, but other than that, the Cubs brass should just let their previous work speak for itself.

St. Louis – The Cardinals need help in there starting rotation.  Doesn’t that sound crazy?  Joel Piniero, Todd Wellermeyer and Smoltzy have all filed for free agency leaving a HUGE hole behind the wonder twins at the top of the rotation.  I would put good money on the Cardinals making a run at John Lackey to give them an unstoppable one, two and three.  The only other hole that the Cardinals would need to look at would be at third base.  Mark DeRosa held the hot corner last year and will almost definitely be moving on to greener pastures this year.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll give rookie David Freese a look over at third if they can pull in Lackey, but if they get out-bid they could be in on the Adriane Beltre or Chone Figgins talks.

Houston – The Astros will lose at least three major pieces from the team last year.  Valverde will move on, Tejada is likely going to find a home on a contender so that he can end his career with a winner, and LaTroy Hawkins will be one of the most sought after set-up men in the league.  To fill these voids the Astros will turn to the free agent market rather than calling up prospects from the farm.  They will probably make offers to Marco Scutaro, Adam Everett or Orlando Cabrera to replace Tejada.  In the bullpen Rafael Betancourt, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel make sense in Houston.  The problem with the Astros is that they are getting older and need to compete now.  They’ll make some moves before spring training, but if they don’t contend we’ll see a fire-sale like in Pittsburgh, where they sell off pieces to restock their minor league system.

West

Colorado – The Rockies came on incredibly strong at the end of last season based on chemistry.  That should continue, with seven of nine position players returning, and four of five starters.  So what’s not to like?  Well I’ll tell yah.  The bullpen took a massive hit.  They stand to lose Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Rincon and Matt Herges.  They will most likely re-sign one or two of these guys, but will also be taking a look at the list of relievers on the market, and picking up a guy or two.  The bullpen is a big if, but the Rockies of the last couple years have been scrappy, and I think if they can make one or two decent signings, they could challenge for the N.L. Championship next season.

San Francisco – This may not be a well received opinion, but, there is no way that Tim Lincecum should have won the Cy Young this year.  This is, of course, just my opinion but I wanted to throw it out there.  Moving on…the Giants have a great starting rotation, and this is what is going to sustain them through next season.  They couldn’t hit last year, and they most likely won’t hit next year, unless they make a huge move.  The answer?  Jason Bay hitting home runs into San Francisco Bay!  The thought of hitting in front of the Kung Fu Panda for the next 6 or so years has to be enticing to Bay, especially with that starting staff.  The Giant pitchers will be good for many years to come, but if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs they’ll need a Bay…I mean bat.

San Diego – The big news surrounding the Padres this off-season is the possible departure of slugger, Adrian Gonzalez.  That said, the Padres front office doesn’t want to move him, which is just plain silly.  San Diego is about three good development years away from contending, and Gonzalez is only under contract through the end of next season.  If they hope to get ANYTHING of value from his departure it will be via trade.  Atlanta, Boston, New York (N.L.), and Chicago (A.L.) could all be a landing spots for Gonzalez, but the prospect asking price will be incredibly high.

Los Angeles – I would love to see Brad Penny go back and pitch for the Dodgers again this season.  He struggled in Boston for most of last year but I think he’s still got gas in the tank, and could completely dominate in the National League West.  The Dodgers need arms like most teams do, but I think they’ll be checking out the bargain basement deals this winter.  Penny is a name that jumps out; I also think that Pedro Martinez could be on Torre’s short list.  We all know that Pedro and Manny had a torrid love affair and would be stoked to reunite in sunny SoCal.  Add that to the fact that Pedro has already come out and said that he wants to pitch a full season next year, and you’ve got a match made in heaven.

American League Hot Stove

  By Chris Speziale | 12/02/2009 - 9:00 am | Predictions
2 Comments

Everyone and their mom thinks they have some idea about what their favorite baseball team will do this off-season, and I am clearly no different.  Baseball is my sport and I feel like I know it well, so I wanted to share my ideas with you.  The winter meetings are less than a week away, and the possible moves are surely about to start leaking out into the media.  Today I drop the American League list, and barring any permanent damage to my eyes from writing this column for five hours, I’ll bring you the National League tomorrow.  Also make sure you check back here every night starting next Monday.  I’ll be updating nightly from the Winter Meeting craziness in Indianapolis. That’s right, your favorite sports blogger is hitting the meetings baby!  Now, find your team on the list below and let me know what you think!

East

Tampa Bay – Tampa never figures to be one of the teams to land big name free agents, and I don’t believe that’s going to change this off-season.  Oddly though, this is one of the reasons why you have to respect this franchise so much.  The past two years they have been contenders in the A.L. East, even though they are a bottom up team and will most likely fill all of their holes this off-season from within.  That said, they will lose a lot of arms in the bullpen, and they could take from the free agent pool to help in that area.  They’ll look at names like Danys Baez, Juan Rincon, Claudio Vargas and Josh Fogg.  However, don’t look for them to sign any arbitration-eligible type A or B free agents.  The Rays are a team that don’t easily give up their draft picks.

Toronto – The big story surrounding the Blue Jays this off-season will be Roy Halladay.  He just recently announced that he won’t re-sign with Toronto if his contract expires, and he won’t accept a trade once the season starts.  Basically, he’s made sure the new GM up north knows that he best move him before spring training.  The most likely candidates are of course going to be the large market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cubs and Tigers, but the key here is going to be what Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos requests in a Halladay trade.  I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the asking price were too steep for any team to bite.  That would leave an angry Doc on the mound for the Blue Jays this season in a contract year.  Scary.

Baltimore – The Orioles team from last year is almost completely intact.  That, however, is the bad news.  The good news is that they are losing the aging contract of Melvin Mora and can more freely spend on a corner infielder like Nick Johnson or Chone Figgins.  Figgins will most likely be hotly pursued by teams with much looser purse strings than Baltimore, so look for them to go after Johnson hard.  They could also make a run at Juan Uribe, depending on where they want Ty Wigginton to play next year.  He spent some time at both first and third last season.

Boston – Ah, where to begin with my hometown team.  My guess is that Jason Bay won’t come back as the Sox left fielder next year, BUT Boston will sign Matt Holliday in his place.  They will most likely let Bay walk to get the draft pick that the team that signs him will have to give up.  The next issue is shortstop:  today Boston announced that they may move Pedroia over to short and go after a defensive-minded second basemen instead.  Felipe Lopez will most likely be on the radar if that is the case; he will be relatively affordable (probably 3 years at 5 mil a year) and has a career .977 fielding percentage at second.  Now…Halladay, is where it gets tricky.  Would he be fantastic at Fenway?  You bet.  Could the Sox sign him to a long term deal?  Or course.  Will his arm eventually turn gangrenous and fall off in the middle of an inning?  Sure is possible! Halladay has been the ONLY workhorse for the Blue Jays the last couple of years, sometimes throwing 140 pitches a game.  He’s going to wear down eventually and that’s why I think the Red Sox won’t throw everything they have at Toronto to get him.

New York – The Yankees need an outfielder, but I just don’t see them in the race for Bay or Holliday.  The front office put a ton of money into the team last off-season and they will be in great shape for a while.  They will mostly make smaller moves like the Red Sox did last year and let the big names they signed last off-season grow and continue to carry the team.  They may take on a veteran contract like Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad or Garret Anderson, and if they wanted to go a little younger they could look at Austin Kearns, who will come cheaply because he has only played on terrible teams and is undervalued at his position.   They will most likely re-sign Jose Molina to be the back-up catcher and Johnny Damon to work in tandem with Jorge Posada at DH. The Yankees of course will be players in the Halladay craziness but are an unlikely candidate to take the bait.  Aside from the little moves, mentioned previously, I think the Yankee front office will be pretty quiet this winter.

Central

Cleveland – The Indians are an enigma.  They have the look of a team in rebuilding mode but are only a couple of pieces away from competing in a very mediocre division.  My money would be on the Indians making a play for a third basemen and some help in the starting rotation.  If Cleveland can land a name like Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf or Rich Harden, they will have a patchwork but decent one-two punch at the top of the rotation.  They could also take a look at giving Ben Sheets an incentive-laden contract in his post-injury year.  The Indians have a lot of young talent, and my guess is that they’ll play it safe this off-season and see where the chips fall once play begins.  If they are contending at the trade deadline, I think we’ll see them pull out the stops to land a big-time pitcher and make a playoff push.

Kansas City – Well, if you read the blog you know that the Kansas City Royals lost a LOT of games last year, but they have a crazy good pitcher at the top of their rotation.  If they are to come close to contending next year, they are going to need more arms.  Ben Sheets could also be a good option here.  Kansas City is the smallest of markets, but he will only cost a lot if he pitches well. This is because he will almost definitely receive a contract that will pay him based on incentives, like strikeouts, and the number of starts he makes.  The Royals are set on the corners with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but they could also take a look at help in the outfield or the middle infield.  They will look to get younger and better on defense, and therefore, may make a run at Adam Everett or Khalil Greene to solidify their infield.

Detroit – The Tigers have a ton of work to do, and I’m not afraid to say it.  They could potentially lose 2 starters from last year, as well as their closer, set-up man, and DH.  The Tigers, though, are not afraid to spend some dough to fill these holes; they had the fifth highest payroll in the majors last year.  If they can fill the two gaps in the middle infield, perhaps with Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera, and re-sign Rodney to close games, this team could be very dangerous next season.  These are all big ifs of course; the Detroit brass could decide to let those contracts go and turn this into a rebuilding year.  There have been rumors surrounding Miguel Cabrera’s availability, and any deal involving Miggy would land the Tigers a prospect mother-load.  That said, I just don’t see Detroit sitting on the side lines with a starting rotation that is as solid as you’ll find in the league.

Minnesota – The Twins traded away Carlos Gomez to the Brewers because they have a hunch that Denard Span can be the everyday centerfielder in Minnesota, and I think that was a great move.  Span hit .311 last year in almost 600 at bats and will most likely be the lead-off hitter on opening day.  The only hole left by departing free agents will be at third base, now that Joe Crede has decided to hit the open market.  We may see the Twins go after Mark DeRosa or give Adrian Beltre a shot.  Aside from that, the field is pretty much set for the Twins.  The biggest issue facing Minny this year will be starting pitching.  As last season ended, we saw the emergence of Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing.  But, to compete in that division and make a deep playoff run, the Twins may need to go out and get a back of the rotation type of guy.  They’ll take a look at guys like Livan Hernandez, Todd Wellemeyer, and Vincente Padilla; they may also kick the tires on some old guys like Pedro, Petitte, or Jarrod Washburn.

Chicago – The White Sox don’t actually have a lot of work to do.  They’ve already signed Omar Vizquel to play short and traded to get Mark Teahan, who can play any outfield position but will most likely spend most of his time in left.  Their starting rotation is solid, barring injury, and they have a great closer in Bobby Jenks.  The only position that Chicago needs to look at is catcher, and there aren’t that many impact backstops on the market right now.  They may look at Torrealba from Colorado or Josh Bard from Washington, but neither one of these guys scream Chicago to me.  Most likely they’ll give their rookie catcher Tyler Flowers a look.  He hit .297 with 15 home runs in the minors last year.  If the White Sox decide to make a move other than at catcher, they’ll most likely look for some help spelling DJ Carrasco and Scott Linebrink in the bullpen.  They may also add some depth on the bench to back up the corner infielders.

West

Oakland – Honest to god, I had no idea who Andrew Bailey was when he won the Rookie of the Year award two weeks ago.  I admit it-  I just completely overlooked him.  Upon further review…holy crap, this kid is good. He whiffed 91 batters in 83 innings and racked up 26 saves.  I think it’s safe to say that the A’s have the closer role locked up for a couple years.  And while the bullpen may be set for a while, the rest of the team is in some serious trouble.  The A’s are going to rely heavily on their young players to make an impact this year.  They are losing the aging contracts of Nomar Garciaparra and Brett Tomko and most likely will be looking for a veteran bat to help the youngsters out.  The most likely candidate would be Nick Johnson.  He fits into Billy Beane’s money-ball philosophy and could be a bargain if the A’s can convince his agent that there are durability issues.

Seattle – The Mariners have already landed their major prize this off-season in Ken Griffey Jr.  He was signed so that fans will come back to watch what will most likely be his final year as a player.  His new deal has incentives based on fan attendance and his ability to stay on the active roster for the whole year.  So, clearly the front office isn’t expecting Grif to hit 50 home runs this season.  So where’s the pop coming from?  Most likely Russell Branyan will re-sign, but if he doesn’t, look for the Mariners to make a run at Hideki Matsui.  It would be a perfect fit for Godzilla; he would be closer to his fan base in Japan, and it would put him on a roster with another of the greatest Asian-born players in the history of the league.  It also benefits Seattle.  The main reason the Branyan deal hasn’t been done is Russell’s insistence on a multi-year contract.  The Mariners are looking to offer no more than a two-year deal, which is perfect for the injury-prone Matsui.

Texas – I’m still surprised that the Rangers were in the playoff picture towards the close of the season, but they proved they were the real deal.  I think the Rangers are going to build on the success of last year and challenge the Angels for the division title next year.  The Texas bigwigs don’t have a lot to do this off-season, and I think that will benefit them in the long run.  They are returning all of their position players from last season, as well as the top arms in their rotation.  I think if you see the Rangers go after anyone, it will be a DH- Vlad Guerrero perhaps?  The Angels denied Vlad salary arbitration, and the Rangers would love to get an angry Guerrero into their line-up.  The Rangers could also use a starter.  Joel Piniero would fit perfectly into this rotation.  He is a ground ball pitcher, and in a ballpark like Arlington, keeping the ball on the ground is paramount.

Los Angeles – Last, but certainly not least, are the Angels.  They are in an interesting spot this off-season.  They are arguably losing more important pieces than any other team.  John Lackey and Chone Figgins have filed for free agency, leaving the Angels with some major holes to fill.  I believe that the spot at third will be filled via free agency, and the hole at the top of the rotation will be filled via a trade.  Did I mention earlier in the article that Roy Halladay happens to be on the market?  Now, I still don’t think Halladay will move, but if he does, I think the team most likely to get him will be the Angels.  Hear me out.  The Angels have a winning culture (which Halladay likes), they can pay him (which Halladay likes), and they are a warm weather city (which Halladay likes).  Now the big question is, do the Angels have the prospects and Major League talent to land him?  I think they do.  With a package including Fabio Martinez Mesa (204 Ks in 136 inn. last year, with a 3.03 career minor league ERA), Hank Conger (.296/.350/.464, 11HRs, 68RBI in the minors last season), and a major league arm like Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders, I think the Angels could come away with the biggest prize of the off-season.