Author Archives: Chris Speziale

Obituary: 2010 New England Patriots

  By Chris Speziale | 10/08/2010 - 8:04 pm | Musings, Predictions
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It'll be halloween when Randy comes back to Gillette. But that purple outfit won't be a costume, it'll be a nightmarish reminder of what they let go.

Well, it’s been a while since I’ve thrown something up on the site. But I can be silent no longer. My beloved New England Patriots made, I think, one of the most heinous mistakes in a decade. Think back, if you will, to 2004 when we were talking about the Pats as a dynasty. They had won 3 of the last 5 Superbowls, and they started the season as the favorite to make it 4 in 6. Well, of course, that didn’t happen. New England won the division, wrecked the Jags in the Wild Card round before getting walloped themselves by the Broncos in Denver. This is when it started. The naysayers descended on the New England clubhouse. Deion Branch held out and was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for a first rounder. And everyone wondered who would catch passes from Tom Brady. The answer wasn’t the one that New England fans expected; the Pats brass held firm and kept the receiving corp the way it was. The 2006 leading receiver for the Patriots was Reche Caldwell. RECHE CALDWELL! He finished with just under 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. And despite all of that, the Patriots made it all the way to Indy, where they lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in the AFC title game.

 

Something had to change. And who better to make that change than Randy Moss. Fresh off the plane from Oakland, he was talking a big game. He yammered on and on about how this was a great fit for him because he wanted to win a championship. He had the right attitude, he looked motivated and in shape, and it appeared that the Pats had just completely changed their offense. Tom Brady was (and still is) the king of the screen. Now he had a deep target, and boy did he use it. All Moss did in his first season with the Patriots was catch 98 passes for over 1400 yards and 23 touchdowns. Are you kidding me? And yes, everyone and their mom knows what happened at the end of the 18-1 season. The helmet catch, the sieve that was the Patriots offensive line, and the NRA spokesman, Plaxico Burress, who stole the perfect season from New England. You may have thought, like I did, that that was it for Randy. That things would have gone sour in the Patriots locker room. That he’d whine and complain. After all, this is the guy whose own ego and complacent attitude got him run out of his two previous homes. But no, to everyone’s surprise, he came back the next season ready to roll. And had Brady not gone down with that knee injury, we could be talking right now about the Perfect Patriots of 2008. But he did, and even still, with Cassel at quarterback and Wes Welker emerging as the best possession receiver in the NFL, he had over a thousand yards and more touchdowns than anyone on the team.

 

Randy Moss is a hall of famer and will go down as the greatest deep threat receiver in the history of the NFL. No one will challenge his single season touchdown receptions record for years and years. And now he’s gone. Not only is it sad from a nostalgic Pats fan perspective, it straight up just killed the season for the Patriots, and I’ll tell you why. New England could basically do whatever they wanted on offense when Randy was between the lines. They could run him out deep to open the middle for Welker or Edelman, they could send him on crossing routes, they could put him in motion to confuse the secondary, the possibilities were endless. The passing game was lethal, and Brady was a masterful wizard running it. After a quarter of passing the ball, the Pats could run play-action for the rest of game. Opposing defenses never knew what hit ‘em. Not only could he catch just about anything that was thrown his way, Randy made people better. An example: the 2007 Patriots ran the ball for over 1800 yards, with Maroney (overrated), Morris (never could get it together to have a break-out year), and Faulk (much better catching the ball out of the backfield). You could never load up the box to stop the run on these guys, because Moss would absolutely murder you down the field. Cut back to the 2010 team with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the same unexplosive Morris, and some undrafted kid out of Division II Chadron State. You can essentially count the run game out. Which leads us to the now Moss-less receiving corp.

 

Welker will now be the focal point of this Patriots offense, and every team will know it. Will he still have over a hundred catches this season? You bet he will. Problem is—with Moss gone, the opposing secondary can bring safety help over the top to cut down on his yards after the catch. This’ll limit the amount of first downs New England is able to get without relying on that weak running attack to convert on short yardage scenarios. I’ve read a lot over the last couple of days about the Patriots trading draft picks for a different team-first wide receiver, and every article just makes me lol (that’s right Mr. Anderson-Hewitt, I put it in a column). The day that Bill Belichick trades away draft picks in the middle of a season is the day I streak naked through Times Square. It’s just not going to happen. And that leaves us with Welker, Edelman, and Brandon Tate. Has Tate shown that he has the talent and speed to be an impact player in the NFL? Hells yes, but that doesn’t mean that you can count on him to be your deep guy down the field. And until he proves himself capable of filling Moss’ shoes, the Patriots are in a whole heap of trouble.

The Definition of Class

  By Chris Speziale | 06/03/2010 - 6:53 pm | Musings
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It was clear to viewers that Joyce blew the call. What no one expected were the reactions that followed the 28 out perfecto.

Watching Armando Galarraga deliver the lineup card to Jim Joyce before today’s game was one of the classiest things I have EVER seen in sports.  In case you missed it…like I did…Armando Galarraga was one out away from throwing the 3rd perfect game in less than a month last night.  Jason Donald hit a weak grounder up the first base line, which pulled Miguel Cabrera off the bag.  Galarraga covered the base and caught the flip from Cabrera a step and a half ahead of the runner.  Cabrera’s arms went up to celebrate, Galarraga’s arms went up to celebrate, and so did the arms of first base umpire Jim Joyce…to signal the runner safe.  Joyce claims that when he made the call, he thought it was correct. It was really close, but with instant replay you can see that the runner was out. If you watch the replay you can see Donald clutching his helmet after the safe call.  Even he knew he was out, and so did the 17,738 fans in attendance.

 

The human element is a huge part of baseball, and I have to give props to the mummy commissioner of MLB.  Selig came out today and said that he wasn’t going to overturn the call to give Galarraga the perfecto.  And this is the right call.  If we give the power of the official scorer to the Commissioner’s Office, we’re opening up Pandora’s box.  Every fan, player, manager and sports agent will be busting down Selig’s door to change things.  No good.  What Selig has done is say that he’ll review the instant replay rules, and that is a big win for baseball.  I said that human error is a part of the game–yes, but I like giving the umpires the opportunity to fix those mistakes during the course of a game.  Do I know who would be in charge of replay, or what would qualify as a reviewable play?  No.  Do I know if it would slow the pace of play?  No.  What I do know is that if they can get this figured out, mistakes like the one that cost Armando his perfect game would be a thing of the past.  Good on yah, Selig.

 

Jim Leyland absolutely laid into Joyce after the game ended, not after the play happened.  Of course, he came out and argued, but he waited until Galarraga recorded the 28th out of the game to really let him have it.  And he had every right to.  He was defending his player and trying to protect his place in history.  But I like that he kept his cool during the game and waited until it was over to truly voice his displeasure.  He sent a good message to his team, and in his post-game interview, he sent an even better message to the fans.  Leyland asked Tiger fans not to boo Joyce before the next game, saying that “today’s a day for Detroit to be a class act…today is a day to cheer the integrity of an umpire.”  Mr. Leyland, you sir are classy.

 

And speaking about the integrity of an umpire–how bout Jim Joyce.  I mentioned earlier that Joyce thought he had made the right call on the field, and I like that.  You need to stand by your decisions.  What I like even more was that he had the courage to watch the play after the game was over and to admit that he made a mistake.  Of course he didn’t want to blow the call.  But he did, and he owned it.  He took history away from a young player, and he could not feel worse about it.  The man was an emotional mess.  He takes pride in what he does, and he’s been praised by players and managers alike for his fair and even calls.  Before his post-game interview, he went so far as to search Galarraga out and personally apologize.  And I know that apologies won’t give the Tigers’ starter his gem back, but Joyce could have huffed and puffed about how it was his call to make and that that is how the game is played.  But he didn’t.  Jim Joyce, you are classy indeed.

 

Then you have Galarraga–I don’t think anyone could have handled this situation better than he has.  When the play happened he should have flipped.  I would have flipped.  I think any other player would have flipped.  But he didn’t, he sort of wryly smiled and walked back to the mound.  He kept his composure and finished off Trevor Crowe with five more pitches, as Donald took second and third on defensive indifference.  In all of his post-game interviews he didn’t put blame on Joyce, he kept stating that what happened happened and there is no changing it.  Today, Jim Joyce got home plate as his assignment in Detroit, and Galarraga was the one exchanging lineup cards with the umpiring crew and Cleveland’s skipper.  As Armando shook his hand, Joyce started to tear up.  The crowd cheered as he came out of the dugout, and he tipped his cap.  He just wants to move on.  Was he upset?  Of course he was, but he held no ill will, and he showed that in a world where players lie, cheat, and steal to get themselves to the top, there is still just a little bit of integrity left.  And that makes him the classiest of all.

Perspective on Papi

  By Chris Speziale | 05/12/2010 - 11:55 am | Musings
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I don't care how this thing ends. This will be how I remember David Ortiz.

Let me start by saying this: there is no bigger David Ortiz fan than this guy right here. But that aside, it’s time to let the idea of Big Papi go. The Red Sox slugger is hitting .185 with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI in 23 games. What I find interesting is that his power numbers really aren’t that bad. He’s on pace to hit 26 homers and drive in 76 runs. But he just doesn’t look that same. He’s struck out over 30% of the time, he’s hitting .207 with runners in scoring position, and his slugging percentage is down more than 130 points from his career average. This is a tough thing for Boston fans to stomach. Not only did he help carry our team to two World Series Championships, but he was a great character guy. The city loved him–Papi was an icon. Like a big, friendly, home run hitting teddy bear. Red Sox fans waited 86 years for those titles, and if we were without Ortiz, we’d still be waiting. He had more clutch hits than I could count. If the game was on the line, in the late innings, he was the guy you wanted at the plate. He’s got 12 walk-off homers, and 20 walk-off hits in his career. He won the Silver Slugger in 4 consecutive years, from 2004-2007. But no award means more to Papi, or Red Sox fans, than his 2004 ALCS MVP Award.

David Ortiz could not be stopped in October 2004. In the three game ALDS sweep of the Angels, he hit .545 and had a ridiculous 1.688 OPS (OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage, for those who don’t know). That was truly out of control, but it would pale in comparison to what he was about to do to the Yankees. In the 7 game series he hit .387, with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI. He also scored 6 runs (to lead the team), and had an OPS a click under 1.200. And now you’re saying. “Hey! Those numbers are worse than his ALDS numbers!” Yah, they are. But they don’t take into account the truly remarkable events of games 4 and 5 against New York. Well past midnight, the morning of October 18th, less that 20 hours before game 5 was set to begin, Papi strolled into the batters box. On a 2-1 count, he deposited a Paul Quantrill fastball into the visitor’s bullpen, giving Boston a 6-4 12 inning win.  The Sox were alive in the series, and David Ortiz wasn’t done. The next night, the Red Sox and Yankees played the longest game in ALCS history. It went 14 innings, and lasted nearly 6 hours. At the end though it was all Papi, all over again. With two out, and two on, Papi looped an Esteban Loaiza offering into centerfield, bringing home Johnny Damon with the winning run. He fouled off 6 pitches before ending the game. If you watch the video of those two games, a hush comes over the crowd when he steps to the plate. I can’t remember another player in my time that had that effect on the crowd.  The man will be immortal in Boston.  And I think we need a bronze Papi outside Fenway to greet the crowds before they enter the park.  That is what makes this so hard.

What’s getting lost, is the business. The Red Sox are a multi-million dollar franchise, and they don’t succeed in business without winning. Right now, with Papi in the lineup, the winning thing is what’s alluding us, and something has to change.  But what can be done?  I see two options.

1. You send him down -call me crazy, but this seems like the most logical thing to do.  Let’s call it back spasms.  You put him on the 15 day DL, give him a chance to get his head in order, and then you start him on a rehab assignment.  Perhaps Big Paps is just not capable of performing at a high level for a full season any more.  Last year, it took him until June to start clicking a the plate.  Maybe he just needs the extra time, and a stint with Pawtucket or Portland would allow him to have that time.  Plus, it would boost ticket sales for the Sox minor league teams. Win-win.

2. You trade him -this one would hurt a little bit, because he would almost undoubtedly end up with an American League team.  He has no defensive value, and there are a couple of teams in the A.L. that could certainly use his services.  Kansas City, LA, Toronto, and Cleveland could all use help at the hitter only position.  Here’s what I’m thinking: we swing him to Cleveland or LA for a couple of lesser known prospects that we can then package with Mike Lowell and a pitcher like Michael Bowden for Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego.  Of course, this is all contingent on San Diego falling out of the N.L. West race.  Which, I’m saying right now, you can bank on.  L.A. is starting to come on, and San Fran can out-pitch just about anyone in the National League.

There is one other thing that the Red Sox could do. Release him.  BUT, this must be the absolute last resort.  If everything else fails, you just gotta let him go.  It will be a dark, dark day for Boston sports, but you have to win.  This is not a market where you can sit back on your laurels, and wait for things to turn around. Enter Theo Epstein.  If there is any one person that is capable of making the hard decision, it’s Theo.  A large part of this column was about the 2004 Red Sox World Series run.  And I’m assuming if you’re a Sox fan, you know that they only way we got there was with the defensive help of Orlando Cabrera.  Cabrera, of course, arrived earlier in the season when Theo traded fan favorite, and Red Sox great, Nomar Garciaparra.  That wasn’t an easy decision either.  It will be interesting to see how Theo reacts to the current Ortiz situation;  Ortiz was one of his first acquisitions as general manager.  We must never forget what Papi helped bring back to Boston, but my hope is that Theo doesn’t play the nostalgia game.  If he does, it could mean the end of the 2010 Red Sox.

The Case for Playoff Hockey

  By Chris Speziale | 04/22/2010 - 2:44 pm | Musings
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After blanking Atlanta on March 23, I tweeted that Tuuka Rask had saved the B's season. I'm saying it again after last night's amazing double OT thriller.

I don’t know if you’ve been watching, but the NHL Playoffs have been absolutely off the hook this year. In the East, the 6 and 7 seeds are making a run at major upsets in the first round, which would set up for a pretty nutty reseed in the conference semifinals. The games have also been crazy close; in the Buf/Bos series, there is a 3 goal differential, and the Sabres have held the lead for all but 19:40 of play, yet they are down in the series 3-1. The Canadiens stole an OT victory from the Capitals in game one of their series, only to lose game two in OT in a 6-5 shootout.  The Flyers and Devils have combined for 203 hits and 136 penalty minutes, and also played an OT game this postseason. It’s no surprise that Philly has been banging; they made their name this season on physical play, and that’s also why I think they could be a tough match-up for Washington in round two. The Penguins started off slow against the Senators, but have turned the series around in a big way after scoring 7 goals in game 4. The Penguins have momentum, and I think they have the best chance of finishing off their series in five games. And while Pittsburgh has the best shot at a short series, all of the East first round series currently stand at 3-1, with Washington, Philadelphia, Boston and Pittsburgh currently leading. If those teams can seal the deal, the second round match-ups would look like this: (1)Washington vs. (7) Philly, and (4)

Pittsburgh vs. (6) Boston.  The Capitals/Flyers series will be a fun series to watch, but what I’m really looking forward to is the Bruins and Penguins.  Matt Cooke laid Marc Savard out with a borderline dirty elbow to the head in a game almost 7 weeks ago.  Savard has yet to play, but yesterday was cleared by doctors to return to the ice when his conditioning will allow.  No one believes, myself included, that Savard will be back before the end of the Sabres series, but if the Bruins advance, he could return to face the team that knocked him out two months ago, and that makes for some exciting hockey.

In the West the series are closer, with Phoenix/Detroit, Vancouver/LA, and San Jose/Colorado tied at 2 games apiece.  The number 2 Chicago Blackhawks are down 2-1 to Nashville in the fourth Western Conference series.  Phoenix and Detroit have traded games since the start of the series, and are also separated by 3 goals.  Interestingly, the first three games were decided by one goal, before the Red Wings blanked the Coyotes 3-0 in game 4.  Vancouver and LA are even in the win column, but the games have been exciting and high scoring.  Everyone expected Luongo to come off his Olympics Gold Medal and shut down the Kings, but that hasn’t been the case so far, and LA is capitalizing.  San Jose and Colorado have gone to OT 3 times in the series so far, and there is nothing to suggest that these two teams won’t take this series 7 games.  Colorado is playing at a very high level right now, and their goalie, Craig Anderson has gotten hot at the right time.  The biggest surprise has be the Blackhawks/Predators series.  Chicago comes into the series as the two seed, and was picked by many of the “experts” to win the whole enchilada.  The story of the series has been goaltending; Pekka Rinne leads all goalies in the post season with a 1.35 GAA and a .953 save percentage.  He’s allowed 4 goals in 3 games, against an extremely potent Chicago offense.  I don’t dare try and pick the winners of the Western Conference series, but what I do know is that there is a possibility, a possibility, that the bottom 4 seeds could win.  That would give Detroit and LA home ice in round two.  Crazy.

The moral of the story?  Watch the freakin NHL playoffs.  Only 7 teams (Boston, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia and New Jersey) in the 16 team tourney have won the Stanley Cup.  Boston and Philly haven’t won it since ’72 and ’75 respectively, and Chicago has been Cup-less since ’61, so there are a lot of frenzied fan-bases out there. The home crowds have been boisterous, and angry, and alive with energy. If you’re not a hockey fan, or if you’ve never watched a game, this is the time.  I haven’t seen this much enthusiasm, or parity for that matter, since the lock-out in ’04, and if you’re not watching, it’s your loss.

The Eagle has…oh no, I’m not using that cliche.

  By Chris Speziale | 04/06/2010 - 5:53 pm | Musings, Predictions
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So, Donovan McNabb is a Redskin.  Well that certainly changes things now, doesn’t it?  McNabb going to D.C. has seriously changed the landscape of the NFC East, as well as, the draft board.  Washington was rumored to be interested in one of the three elite quarterbacks in the NFL draft.  Well, not anymore! In essence, a team at the bottom of the draft now has a shot at a quarterback because the Skins will pass.  With all that draft maneuvering, the McNabb trade will leave its mark on a lot of teams in the upcoming season, but none more than the Eagles and Redskin’s.

Boy, it's gonna look a lot different when he's hoisting those fingers wearing a maroon uni. Get used to it Philadelphia.

Let’s first look at Washington, because—well, we start where…guh…the Eagle landed. Yah, I did it—moving on. This is clearly a game changer for the Redskins.  They get a pro-bowl caliber quarterback a shade after his prime in exchange for, what?  A second round draft pick in 2010 and a third or fourth rounder in 2011.  Two picks, in the later rounds, for a talented veteran signal caller?  I’ll take it.  Plus, the Redskins still have four picks in the upcoming draft; one inside the top 5.  The Redskins are most likely going to take an offensive tackle with that first round pick, and my guess would be that they make a run at a couple of young wide receivers in the later rounds. And what we’ve seen McNabb do with young talent is astounding.  If you look at the seasons that DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek had last year, you’ll notice that he thrives with a group of young guns around him.  Washington would be wise to look at McNabb’s past, as they begin to revamp this team.  All that said—I think that the Redskins compete next year, maybe not for the division, but I do think that they have planted themselves firmly ahead of the Eagles.  The Philadelphia brass are going to be in some hot water, when Washington rolls into Philly next season, and lays a lickin on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has installed Kevin Kolb as their starter for next season.  Kolb, the 25 year old, Texas native, has thrown a whopping 130 career passes.  This compared to the nearly 5000 thrown by McNabb.  Can anyone say learning curve?  Kolb started two games last season for Andy Reid’s team.  The first of which, was against the now defending Superbowl Champion New Orleans Saints.  His team got wrecked.  And yes, I know that he played well—except for the 3 interceptions he threw!  But where exactly is everyone seeing this talent? That’s what I want to know.  In his next game he threw for 327 yards and two scores…..AGAINST KANSAS CITY!  Kolb is going to be surrounded with loads of young talent, and that will make him a decent starter in the NFL, at best.  However, he’ll certainly not be a standout for the Eagles, who will be looking up at Donovan and the Redskins for most—if not all—of next season.

But what I really want to talk about is how this deal went down.  Think about it for just one second.  McNabb, a year after throwing for 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns (in 14 games no less), gets traded to a division rival.  A DIVISION RIVAL!  This is ludicrous—and clearly sent one simple message: the Eagles thought McNabb was done.  Andy Reid came out at the end of the season and stated that Donovan would be their guy.  The Eagles then, not so secretly, started to shop him around.  Then came the suitors; Oakland, Buffalo, and St. Louis all stated at least a little interest.  St. Louis, after evaluating its options, pulled away from the negotiations.  Oakland offered the 39th pick in this year’s draft, and laid in wait.  And when you get right down to it, Buffalo was NEVER going to give up draft picks.  No one even saw the Redskins coming. (Side Note: I had a conversation with my good friend Chris at a bar last week and we discussed this.  He’s a big Buffalo fan, and didn’t know what to think about McNabb as a Bill.  The more I thought about it, the more I liked the idea.  Check it: You bring in McNabb for three years.  Draft Terrell Pryor out of The Ohio State University next year, and have McNabb mentor him.  McNabb makes the Bills at least a little more relevant over the next three, and then you have your quarterback of the future waiting to take over when McNabb rides off into the sunset.  But I digress.)  Washington made the best offer; the 37th pick in this year’s draft.  And the rest is history, as the cliché goes. But something just seems off about the whole thing.  The Philly bigwigs made a point to say that they went with Washington because they wanted to respect McNabb’s wishes.  Well here’s an idea: DON’T TRADE HIM!  He wanted to remain an Eagle! He wanted to finish his career in Philadelphia!  But this is a business, and the only thing that makes sense is that they clearly didn’t have faith that McNabb could get the job done.  And now—the conspiracy theory: They sent him to a division rival because they knew he would fail, thus taking one team out of that four team race, and increasing the chances of an Eagles Division Title! Whaaaaaat?!?

No disrespect to Andy Reid, but maybe this is one’s on him.  Maybe it was the coach who couldn’t put that final nail in the coffin.  Every Philly fan has griped about McNabb in the past, and they have every right too.  It’s their team, and they want to see that team win.  But here’s what I don’t get: he did.  He won a LOT of games for the Eagles.  In some cases he singlehandedly willed the team to victory.  He took them to 5 NFC Championship games, in his eleven years at the helm.  Did he win the big one?  No.  Could a change of scenery be the spark that finally puts him over the edge?  Who knows.  What I do know, is that a VERY good quarterback just got a VERY large chip on his shoulder. In two years, with an influx of new talent, McNabb could be hoisting the Lombardi trophy.  This reminds me of someone…someone in the Hall of Fame.  What’s that name?  Oh yeah!  John Elway, a quarterback with a quarter tank of gas left, but looking to prove something.  Elway’s stat line through his first eleven seasons looked like this: 34,246 YD’s, 183 TD’s, and 167 INT’s.  McNabb, through that same timeline: 32,873 YD’s, 216 TD’s, and 100 INT’s.  Um?  Wow.  I’m sure most people didn’t know that McNabb had thrown more touchdowns with fewer interceptions to start his career, than the Bronco’s quarterback of old.  Elway carried that “can’t win the big game” stigma around for a long time.  And Mike Shanahan was right there losing with him.  But they turned it around.  Big.  Elway went on to win two Superbowls with Shanahan manning the sidelines.  Now, the cosmos have aligned to bring these two super powers together, and Coach Shanahan knows what to do with a guy like McNabb. That should be something that leaves the rest of the NFC East—Eagles included—shaking in their shoulder pads.

Ock Mock

  By Chris Speziale | 03/23/2010 - 12:00 pm | Impress Your Friends, Predictions
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Yeah, it’s been a while. Sorry about that. Life comes at you fast, right? Anyway—we’re about two weeks away from the start of the MLB regular season, and that means Fantasy Baseball is in full swing. I figured there was no better way to jump back into the blogosphere than hitting up the Fantasy Sport that bore all fantasy sports.

I have always been a HUGE fan of fantasy baseball—going all the way back to live drafts at my Uncle Gerald’s house in Tewksbury, Massachusetts. My uncle ran the league and put all the stats together himself. Every week when we would see each other at my grandfather’s house, he would have print outs with all the standings and player stats from the previous week. Now, when you’re 9 years old, it’s all about picking up your favorite players so that you can root for them all year long. It was always cool to win and have the best team, but in the end for a kid it was all about the players. I remember visiting Cooperstown one summer almost immediately following my Uncle’s draft; I was so excited about my team that I had to go to the card shop and buy the card of every player I had drafted. That’s what it was all about, but as you get older it’s all about smoking everyone. Don’t lie—I know all the fantasy freaks out there are nodding their heads. You want to beat up on your friends, your family, or the complete strangers that you draft with in some random league—that’s just the way it is.

But, why the change? I, personally, think it’s about the growth of the competitive spirit. When you’re 7 years old, you don’t compete with your fellow 3rd graders to see who color best inside the lines, but as soon as you hit middle and high school you’ve surely become a cog in the competitive machine. You want to be tops in your class, you want the best role in the school play, you want to make the football team or cheerleading squad—everything revolves around competition, so why shouldn’t the same ring true in Fantasy sports?

Fantasy sports have exploded over the past decade, and the technology behind them has also improved greatly. Gone are the days of the paper print out—bring on the draft kits, scouting reports, insiders, and mock drafts, the last of which will be today’s topic. There is tons of info out there, in tons of different formats, but I think the most helpful is the mock draft. It provides you an opportunity to see how the average baseball fan is drafting. It also provides you an opportunity to see how your own drafting strategy will play out. I ran a mock draft for myself on ESPN.com this afternoon, and I’d like to share a couple of general observations. First though, because it will come up later, take a look at my team:

C Matt Wieters
1B Justin Morneau
2B Rickie Weeks
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B/SS Casey McGehee
1B/3B Alex Gordon
OF Andre Ethier
OF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Chris Coghlan
OF Chris Young
OF Kyle Blanks
UTIL Conor Jackson
SP Zack Grienke
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Tim Hudon
SP Rich Harden
SP Ted Lilly
SP Ben Sheets
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Andrew Bailey
RP Carlos Marmol
BE Magglio Ordonez
BE Orlando Cabrera
BE Phil Hughes

Not bad huh? What’s even cooler is the new feature added to ESPN drafts if you’re an “insider” like myself. They will calculate the league’s finish, based on projected numbers for each player drafted on each fantasy team in real-time. And the collection of guys you see listed above was good enough for second place with 78 points. Of course projections are often wrong in some way or another, and I guarantee you that none of the players will perform exactly as “expected.”

While projections are nice, the real reason you do a mock draft is to see where players are taken. Every fantasy owner comes into his or her draft with a strategy; most likely this strategy is based on gut feelings with a little statistical research mixed in. My strategy in most years is to draft high on potential, take a couple of injury risks and make sure you nail down at least 3 sure things. But we’ll get more into that later. Let’s look at some of the surprises:

  • Johan Santana fell to the 5th round – A year ago, this would have been a complete joke. He has a ton of value, but is taken late because he falls into the injury risk category. If you are nervous to take him early, make sure that you snag him if he falls to you after round five. Imagine taking Halladay in the first round and having Santana come to you in round 6. That’s a hell of a 1-2 punch.
  • There were no relief pitchers taken until round 6 – Except for Jonathan Papelbon by me in the third round. But that’s the thing! I never would have known that relievers were going to be late round pick-ups unless I had done the mock. I took Paps early because I believe the Red Sox are going to have some trouble scoring runs this year, and therefore will win a lot of close games. In my delusional Red Sox crazed head, he has a chance to lead the league in saves.
  • By the end of round 4, all of the elite catchers were off the board – Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann were gone by round 5. Lesson learned? If you want any of those guys, you have take ‘em WAAAAY early. I chose to use one of my high ceiling guys for the C position and landed Wieters in the 8th round. The Orioles catcher could end up being a steal, if he can produce the way he’s expected to.
  • People are scared of injuries – Aside from Johan Santana—Jake Peavy (10th Rnd.), Juan Rivera (17th Rnd.), Ryan Doumit (17th Rnd.) and a host of others were taken well later than normal, because they’re coming off a year in which they were injured for a majority of the season. You should make a list of guys that were injured in the previous year that you might have some interest in, and then refuse to take any of them….kidding of course, but be careful. I wouldn’t take a player coming off a major injury before the 10th round.

I’ve clearly learned a lot. But there is a ton more; you could analyze the hell out of a fantasy draft. But what I think is most important is to stick with your strategy. So how’d I do? Well, as I said, it’s all about my strategy. The high ceiling young guys? Check. See Weiters (8th Rnd.), Casey McGehee (22nd Rnd.), Alex Gordon (19th Rnd.), Kyle Blanks (18th Rnd.), Wandy Rodriguez (9th Rnd.), and Phil Hughes (25th Rnd.). The sure things? Oh yeah, got ‘em. Hanley Ramirez (1st Rnd.), Zack Grienke (2nd Rnd.), and Justin Morneau (4th Rnd.). Now, I know that Morneau could also be considered an “injury risk”, but for the sake of this argument roll with me. The injury guys? Picked them up—Icy Hot and all. Rickie Weeks (10th Rnd.), Tim Hudson (12th Rnd.), and Ben Sheets (21st Rnd.). And what’s great about my team is that the “experts” probably sold the young and injured guys short. Meaning, of course, that my team totes would’ve finished first…if it hadn’t been a mock.  But alas, it was.  That is what mocks are good for.  Use them as an outline, get online, stick to your guns and by the end of the regular season, you’ll surely be hoisting that fake (sometimes imaginary), golden trophy.

Can the U.S. Olympic Team make history?

  By Chris Speziale | 02/19/2010 - 12:23 pm | Uncategorized
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As the first week of the 2010 Winter Olympics draws to a close tonight think of this: by the end of the day today the United States could be holding 21 medals. They’ve already won eighteen, six of them Gold, and have a chance to put three more Americans on the podium tonight. If the U.S. can keep at this pace they’ll have a chance to meet or tie the overall medal count record of thirty-six set by Germany in 2002. If you’ve been following you know that the Americans have had a couple of very strong days in a row. Yesterday, Evan Lysacek won the first Men’s Figure Skating Gold for the U.S. since Brian Boitano in 1988. The day before that, Shaun White and Lindsey Vonn won their events with relative ease.

Plushenko came back from retirement to compete in the Olympics. How did that work out for ya buddy?

Today we have the medal rounds of the Men’s Super G, and Men’s and Women’s Skeleton. In the Super G event, look for Bode Miller, who is one of the most popular American skiers, as well as the youngster Andrew Weibrecht to be at or near the top of the leader board. The Women’s Skeleton event will also offer an opportunity for the U.S. to add to the medal count. Noelle Pikus-Pace and Katie Uhlaender have won World Championships and would love to add Olympic Gold to their resumes. There are still 60 medal events left on the schedule; in many of which, the Americans have strong athletes. My prediction: the U.S. comes away with 18 more medals in the second week and ties the 2002 German team. Not bad, eh? Get it? Because the games are in Vancouver?

Superbowl LXXXVI

  By Chris Speziale | 02/11/2010 - 9:54 am | Musings, Predictions
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On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!).  The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com.  The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years.  Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it.  Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts.  29!  That’s more than half of the active roster!  My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season.  When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game.  That’s way too high.  But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night.  As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech.  The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport.  The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade.  But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.

Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl

The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess.  I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up.  But how does it apply to the Saints?  Well I’m glad you asked:  the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl.  With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere.  The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing.  Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.

The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s.  You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few.  And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title.  Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match.  Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.

The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year.  They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns.  That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL.  And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter.  The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat.  Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time.  Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s.  The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.

Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP.  On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games.  But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs.  Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl.  And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads.  He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old.  Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31.  With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land.  But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level.  Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree.  But, back to the Superbowl?  I just don’t see it.  With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.

Flipping Rex

  By Chris Speziale | 02/01/2010 - 3:20 pm | Musings
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How is this not a big deal?  On Saturday night Rex Ryan flipped off the entirety of Dolphins nation.  It’s now Monday afternoon and we’ve heard little to nothing about the incident.  If this were a player, the league would have swept in and immediately either suspended or fined him.  Hell, if it were a player on Ryan’s team they’d be riding the pine for at least a game.  I’ll be the first to admit that Roger Goddell has done a fantastic job of disciplining players, teams, and coaches for breaking league rules.  And there most likely will be some sort of punishment for Mr. Ryan, but what I don’t understand is how this has slipped from the headlines.  I’m an avid ESPN watcher, and I haven’t heard hide nor hair about the event in question.

No Rex, you wave with all FIVE fingers

Rex Ryan is a head coach in the National Football League; he leads a team and should be held to a higher standard.  For some reason people like this guy; and I’m not saying this because I’m a Pats fan.  He’s a defensive genius; I won’t knock the guy’s skills.  I just think he’s kind-of-a douche.  But when he runs his mouth, the media fawn over him so he gets a break.  I understand the democratic process that takes place in the league office; innocent until proven guilty, right?  But you were doing a live interview Rex…ON CAMERA!  The league dropped the ball on this one.  But why?  Because of the Alternate Bowl?  Was the commissioners office sooo concerned about distracting from David Garrard’s performance at the Pro-Bowl?  The NFL turned the annual pro-football All-Star Game into a joke, and then allowed Rex Ryan to piss off an entire fan-base without consequence.  Not cool NFL, not cool.

Coach Cal is one cool (Wild)cat

  By Chris Speziale | 01/26/2010 - 1:56 pm | Musings
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"Wildcats can totes take Tigers...I'm out!

John Calipari is the head coach of the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team.  He’s been a college head coach since 1988, and he has had one losing season—in his first year.  He has won his team’s conference ten times, and seven times he’s taken his team to the Sweet 16 or beyond.  And while he’s never won the big one, he has won an NIT Championship.  Last year Kentucky lost 14 games—Calipari has lost more than 14 games only twice in his career.  At the end of last season, Kentucky fired its head coach, Billy Gillispie, claiming that the coach and management were “incompatible.”  They refused to admit that his firing was linked to performance, but we know better.  The Kentucky basketball program is legendary; the first season tipped-off in 1903, and since then they have a .763 winning percentage.  Losing is simply not an option. Enter Calipari.

I could never be a head coach; you have to go into people’s homes and sell them on the school that you’re working for.  This is such an important decision for these kids; the school you go to could dictate the rest of your life.  Think about it: you’re a top high school prospect.  If you go to the big basketball school, you’re competing with all of the other big-time recruits.  If you go to the smaller school you run the risk of not being scouted as highly by the pros.  It’s a big deal.  And that’s what makes J.C. so damn good.  Calipari is fantastic on the recruiting couch.  He’s always been able to find the right words to lure the top talent to his teams.  And he knows that you can’t turn a program around without bringing in the big names; that is why the emphasis has ALWAYS been on recruiting.  Coming into his first season with Kentucky, he signed 5 of the top 10 basketball prospects in the country, including the top 2.  John Wall (PG, 17 points, 7 assists, 2 steals per game) has been absolutely lights out as a freshman this year.  He will be, without question, a top pick (if not THE top pick) in the NBA draft this summer.  Add to that, DeMarcus Cousins (C, 15 points, 10 rebounds per game, along with 34 blocks), who could also go as a top ten pick in the draft.  But a coach’s job is never done, and that’s what will continue to be tough for Coach Cal.  As long as he keeps bringing in the big-time players, he’ll have to maintain his recruiting record.  They all leave for the NBA!

Once you get the kids to commit, the practices begin, and that’s when the real work starts.  So much emphasis is put on Calipari’s recruiting strengths that people forget—this guy is a great coach!  His philosophy is simple: get every kid on the team to have a career year, and play with/off each other.  Unselfish play is characterized in so many different ways, by so many different people; I look at assists.  To me, the pass is the ultimate sacrifice, especially in the college game. College players have so much to gain by shooting; if a coach can get a team to pass the ball, in my mind, they have created an unselfish team.  In Coach Cal’s two Final Four runs, his teams averaged over 15 assists per game.  This year, his Wildcats are averaging over 16 a game.  Those numbers put Calipari’s teams just outside the top ten in that category (looking at the last ten years, teams leading NCAA Division 1 averaged 18 assists per game).  Along with the assists philosophy, he’s gotten “Player of the Year” type seasons from a number of different players.  Put those things together and you’ve got your Calipari recipe for success.

Now I know what you’re thinking: He’s completely ignoring the fact that Calipari has had two final four appearances vacated!  Yes, we’re all aware that controversy has followed the coach from school to school.  At UMass, Marcus Camby was declared ineligible, and therefore the Minutemen were forced to vacate their 1996 Final Four appearance.  And at Memphis, a test score scandal involving Derrick Rose forced Memphis to vacate their championship run in 2008.  But what’s being lost in all this is that Coach Cal has taken two programs from obscurity to greatness, AND he’s in the midst of reviving one of the most storied basketball franchises in the history of the sport. All the scandal aside, his effectiveness is something that you just can’t deny.

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