On a warm Saturday evening in February 2052, all of New England will be abuzz as it gears up to host it’s second Superbowl (thanks global warming!). The big story—the Saints have reached their second Superbowl. That’s right folks; we’re making the prediction right here on ChrisSpez.com. The Saints won’t make another big game for 42 more years. Now, maybe this statement is a little bold; but think about it. Brees is 31, the defense needs a bunch of help stopping the run, and the Saints have 29 expiring contracts. 29! That’s more than half of the active roster! My point, put more simply is this—while they may make another Superbowl before little Baylen Brees turns 43, I’m VERY confident that the Saints aren’t making the big dance next season. When Superbowl XLIV ended this past Sunday, the odds-makers in the Vegas desert started crunching numbers for next year’s Superbowl and have listed the Saints at 7-1 odds to win next year’s game. That’s way too high. But I want to be clear: I was rooting for the Saints on Sunday night. As a Pats fan, nothing would have made me sicker than seeing Peyton Manning hoisting his second Lombardi trophy into the air and making some lame speech. The Saints story was incredible; it was huge for the city, for the fans and for the sport. The 2007 Giants and the 2009 Saints will go down as the NFL’s underdog stories of the decade. But, they have so much to overcome going into next season.
Little Baylen Brees will be 43 the next time New Orleans makes it to the Superbowl
The NFL itself is going through an interesting time; we’re headed into an un-capped year, and it’s going to be a mess. I didn’t quite understand the rules of this whole thing until I read this article on NFL.com, and it helped to clear some things up. But how does it apply to the Saints? Well I’m glad you asked: the 29 contracts that the Saints have expiring this season will be very difficult to deal with because they won the Superbowl. With the new rules in place, the last four teams standing (the Jets, Colts, Vikings and Saints) can’t sign unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) unless free agents from the 2009 teams leave to sign elsewhere. The difference between UFA’s and RFA’s (restricted free agent) is really quite simple: if a UFA signs with a new team, his old team gets nothing. Conversely, the team holding the contract of the RFA has a right to match any offer that that player receives, and if they choose to let him go they receive draft compensation from the players new team.
The breakdown for the Saints is 18 RFA’s and 11 UFA’s. You can check out the full list here, but some of the notables are Darren Sharper and Scott Fujita on the UFA list, and on the RFA list you’ve got Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jahri Evans, Jammal Brown, Roman Harper, Remi Ayodele, Jermon Bushrod and Anthony Hargrove, just to name a few. And while a LOT of these guys will end up back with the team, some of them won’t make it back to defend the title. Most likely Lance Moore, Scott Fujita and Roman Harper will fly the coop, because they will surely get offered lucrative deals with other teams that the Saints aren’t willing to match. Losing Moore isn’t a huge deal because Drew Brees is fantastic at using whatever is at his disposal to wreak havoc on opposing D’s, but the defensive guys fleeing the bayou will REALLY hurt.
The Saints ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing defense this year. They allowed 122 yards per game to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns. That last stat ranks third worst in the NFL. And this is something that was evident even in the Superbowl win; Joseph Addai rushed for 77 and a touchdown. Those numbers don’t look fantastic, but the Colt success in the running game also helped to set up the play-action touchdown that Peyton threw to Pierre Garcon in the third quarter. The Colts had three in the backfield, so the Saints crowded the line of scrimmage; Garcon was left with single coverage wide out to the right. The result was a 19 yard score that put the Colts back in the driver’s seat. Integrating a slew of new players into the defensive scheme will be difficult and take time. Not to mention that the defensive quarterback, Darren Sharper, is one of the UFA’s. The defense will be tough to rebuild, but there is no doubt in my mind that the offense will rank in the top five at the end of next season—mostly because of Drew Brees.
Drew Brees had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009; he threw for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns. Subtract Peyton Manning from the NFL equation, and you’ve got yourself an MVP. On Sunday the Saints became the first team to win the Superbowl after losing the final three regular season games. But without his leadership the Saints don’t make the playoffs. Without his passion the team lacks the fire necessary to push through the playoffs to reach the Superbowl. And without his poise they go into the locker room at halftime of Superbowl XLIV down ten and hanging their heads. He brought all of that to the team, but he’s getting old. Tom Brady won his first Lombardi trophy at age 23, Drew is 31. With Favre playing until he turns 82 it would be easy to say that Brees has ten more years to reached the promised land. But he’s has had his throwing shoulder surgically rebuilt, and most doctors didn’t give him a snowballs chance to fully recover and play at a high level. Now, a lot of people believe that he’s just coming into his prime, and I am one to agree. But, back to the Superbowl? I just don’t see it. With a huge influx of new talent next year, and a possible lock-out in 2011, Brees may not have many more years left to march his Saints into the Superbowl.